Game Preview #9: New Jersey Devils vs. Tampa Bay Lightning

After their first overtime game of the season, the Devils are back in action as they host the Tampa Bay Lightning on Frozen Frenzy night

The Matchup: New Jersey Devils (5-2-1) vs. Tampa Bay Lightning (3-2-0)

The Time: 6:45pm ET

The Broadcast: MSGSN, FanDuel Sports Network

Last Devils Game

New Jersey was in action on Saturday night, and in their first post-regulation game of the season they lost 6-5 to the Washington Capitals. It was a wild game that included the Devils erasing two separate two-goal deficits to force overtime, with Nico Hischier leading the way with a two-goal, three-point night.

Last Lightning Game

Tampa Bay actually played last night (the only game across the league on Monday), and they suffered an ugly 5-2 loss in Toronto to the Maple Leafs.

Roster Moves

General Manager Tom Fitzgerald made a notable roster move on Monday. The Devils announced that rookie defenseman Seamus Casey has been sent down to Utica. In his place, New Jersey has called up lefthanded blueliner Daniil Misyul:

Casey memorably scored his first career goal in the second game of the season, a win over the Sabres in Prague. He scored two more goals after that, but despite his early scoring binge, Casey gradually fell out of favor with head coach Sheldon Keefe. This culminated in Casey playing a team-low 7:35 in the loss to Washington on Saturday. Here’s what Keefe had to say about him after that game:

So Casey will go to the AHL where hopefully he will log big minutes and develop into the kind of defenseman Keefe wants him to be.

In the meantime, it appears Misyul will take his place on the third pairing. Misyul does not play nearly as flashy an offensive game as Casey, but he does bring much more of a defensive edge. The pairing of Casey and Simon Nemec was not viable longterm, as according to Natural Stat Trick, they were getting caved in to the tune of a 5-on-5 Expected Goals For% of 27.96%. Even in limited third pairing minutes, that can’t happen. I wish I could tell you just how Misyul will gel with Nemec, but we have to actually wait for them to play together to determine that. At the very least, I do feel relatively safe in saying a Misyul-Nemec pairing can’t be any worse than Casey-Nemec.

One other roster move to note is Adam Beckman being waived and subsequently clearing waivers:

As the embedded tweet indicates, Beckman began the season out due to injury, and now that he’s healthy he will get minutes in the AHL.

“Imminent”

Casey and Misyul weren’t the only defenseman who made news at Devils practice today:

The Devils have more than held their own in the absence of these two key members of the blue line, but even still the returns of Brett Pesce and Luke Hughes would be very welcome sights.

The question is, which two defensemen are going to come out of the lineup once Pesce and Hughes return? I think Misyul is the obvious answer for one of those spots. As for the other, I think most people would’ve said Johnathan Kovacevic before the season started…but then the season started, and Kovacevic has combined with Jonas Siegenthaler to create a very good pairing. According to Natural Stat Trick, In 111:43 5-on-5 minutes together, Kovacevic and Sigenthaler have put up an xGF% of 56.71%. By the way, that 111:43 together is tops in the entire NHL for a defensive pairing. Clearly Sheldon Keefe has a lot of trust in that duo right now, and why wouldn’t he?

So that tells me that Kovacevic’s spot is safe for now. Perhaps if he slows down later in the season he will draw out, but certainly not now. Elsewhere, the Dougie Hamilton-Brenden Dillon pairing is safe, so that leaves only one other option: Simon Nemec. It’s a bit of a chicken and egg thing, but Nemec has looked like a shell of himself to begin this season on a pairing with Seamus Casey. Perhaps teaming with Misyul will reinvigorate him, but at least right now Nemec is the obvious choice to make room for Pesce and/or Hughes.

It’s a shame to see such a promising prospect that a step back after a strong rookie campaign, but development isn’t always linear. It’s possible that Nemec goes down to Utica and logs huge, all-situations minutes alongside Casey and really finds his game down there. Then next time he gets the call to the big squad, he looks better than ever. That would be my hope anyway.

For now, Pesce and Hughes aren’t ready to return. But “imminent” means they will be ready very soon. Gaining essentially an entire pairing with as much talent as Pesce and Hughes might provide a big jolt to a blue line that is already looking good to begin the season.

More Minor Tweaks

According to Amanda Stein, Keefe made a few small adjustments to his forward lines at practice yesterday:

The center-right wing combos you see here have stayed remarkably consistent this season, but Keefe has mixed and matched his left wingers through the early part of the campaign. Ondrej Palat started the season on the third line, and now he’s skating with Jack Hughes and Jesper Bratt. Meier began on that top line, but now finds himself back with Nico Hischier, with Dawson Mercer holding their right flank. And now we see Paul Cotter drop from the Hughes line back to the Erik Haula line, and Tomas Tatar drop to the fourth line. Let us again go to NST for some numbers on how these lines have fared together this season (all numbers 5-on-5):

Hughes line: 7:22 Time On Ice, 38.23 Expected Goals For%

Hischier line: 21:16 TOI, 78.72 xGF%

Haula line: 33:28 TOI, 47.77 xGF%

Lazar line: n/a

So that’s one line that is bulldozing its competition, two lines with mediocre to bad numbers (albeit in a microscopic sample in the case of the Hughes line) and one line that has not played one recorded second together.

The unfortunate reality is that the only line that has truly worked for the Devils this season is whatever line Hischier is centering. Hughes has yet to fully regain his form, but I’m confident that will come in time. Once he gets back to being Jack Hughes, the numbers should look much better. Offseason shoulder surgery is no joke, and I would imagine Hughes is still feeling out his game coming off that injury. His return to form should have a ripple effect across the forward corps.

Changing of the Guard

The last time a Tampa Bay Lightning team did not feature Steven Stamkos was the 2007-08 season. For context, the leading scorer on the Devils that season was Zach Parise with 65 points. Patrik Elias began the season as the captain, was stripped of the captaincy by head coach Brent Sutter, and was eventually replaced in that role by Jamie Langenbrunner. Martin Brodeur won his fourth and final Vezina trophy, collecting 44 wins in (this is so silly) 77 games played. His backup that season was Kevin Weekes. The time on ice leader for the club that season was Paul Martin.

In case I’m being too subtle for you, it’s been a while since the Lightning did not employ Steven Stamkos.

That’s what makes this season so strange in Tampa Bay. The number one overall pick in 2008 and longtime franchise icon left the Bolts in free agency, signing with the Nashville Predators over the summer. The Lightning tabbed Victor Hedman as the next captain of the team, making this the first time someone other than Stamkos has held the captaincy since Martin St. Louis briefly occupied the role in 2013-14.

So how did Tampa Bay attempt to replace him? By signing Jake Guentzel to a big, fat free contract in July. Seven years, $63 million dollars ($9m AAV) for Sidney Crosby’s longtime running mate. Clearly he has big shoes to fill, but Guentzel has been an elite goal scorer in the league for a long time, and now he gets to prove that he wasn’t just a Crosby coattail rider. So far so good for Guentzel, as he’s up to 5 points in 5 games to begin the year. Only one of those points is a goal though, so while he’s racking up the points, the Lightning probably want him to find the back of the net himself more often.

Guentzel will never mean as much to the Lightning as Stamkos did, but that’s not an insult to Guentzel. That’s just acknowledging how monumental Stamkos was to that franchise. He captained them to back-to-back Stanley Cups after the outset of the Covid-19 pandemic, and left as the Lightning’s all-time leader in goals and points. It will be very odd to see a Tampa Bay squad without Stamkos suiting up for them.

The Old Guard

You know who is still on the Tampa Bay Lightning, though? Nikita Kucherov. You know who is still racking up monster point totals for the Tampa Bay Lightning? You guessed it, Nikita Kucherov.

After collecting an assist in the loss last night, Kucherov is now up to 10 points in five games. According to my calculations, that’s two points per game. What’s even more surprising is that seven of those points have been goals. Kucherov has been a prolific scorer in his career, topping out at 44 goals a season ago (his third time reaching the 40-goal plateau). But Kucherov is a playmaker through and through, always registering many more assists than goals. To see Kucherov enter with a seven-goal, three-assist statline is weird, and it won’t last, but for now the Russian winger is shooting with a hot stick.

It goes without saying that the Devils’ defensive gameplan should begin and end with stopping Kucherov. Obviously Tampa Bay has other weapons to worry about such as Guentzel and Brayden Point up front, and Victor Hedman on the back end. But Kucherov is the engine of the Lightning attack. If New Jersey can somehow find a way to keep him off the scoresheet, their chances of winning go up dramatically.

Crease Questions

Let’s talk about another longtime Lightning stalwart: Andrei Vasilevskiy. A season ago, Vasilevskiy missed the first month and a half with back issues. Upon returning, he was just never the same, posting a Save% of .900%. Prior to 2023-24, Vasilevskiy’s lowest Save% in a season was .910% all the way back in 2015-16 when he only played 24 games. To find his lowest Save% in a full season before 2023-24, we have to go back to 2022-23 and his .915% in 60 games.

It’s hard to overstate just how much of a drop off last season was for the Lightning’s superstar netminder. Perhaps it could be chalked up to never being completely healthy last year, but that doesn’t really explain his performance in the early going this season. Vasilevskiy got bombed in Toronto last night, allowing four goals on 14 shots before getting pulled for Jonas Johansson. Even before that shelling, Vasilevskiy was rocking a .901% Save% in four games played.

Vasilevskiy has just not been himself since 2022-23. Clearly the plan for this back-to-back for the Lightning was to play him in Toronto, and give Johansson the crease tonight. But after getting the early hook last night, that might change things for head coach Jon Cooper. We’ll have to wait for morning skate to see who the Devils draw this evening.

Your Take

What do you make of tonight’s game? What is your opinion on Casey getting demoted and Misyul getting promoted? Will the line tinkering pay off for New Jersey? As always, thanks for reading!