Ondrej Palat signed a rather big contract two offseasons ago, but he has yet to live up to that deal. In year three, can he finally be worth that $6 million per year he’s getting?
Two offseasons ago, Tom Fitzgerald and the New Jersey Devils whiffed on signing Johnny Gaudreau in free agency, and after missing out, they instead brought in 31-year-old Ondrej Palat on a 5-year deal with an AAV of $6 million. Given his age and the length of the contract, many thought that the deal could turn into an albatross for the Devils by as early as the 2024-25 season. Forwards in their 30s, especially once they hit their mid-30s, often see a decline in their games, and it would be a real question as to whether Palat could live up to the $6 million per season as he aged.
Well, here we are two years into that five-year deal, and sadly, most would say he has yet to show he is worthy of that $6 million per year deal, even in his younger age 31 and age 32 seasons. His 2022-23 was largely derailed by injury, playing in only 49 regular season games, but he did play a mostly full season this past year, getting on the ice in 71 games. Between those 120 games, he has only managed 19 goals and 54 total points for a 0.45 point percentage. Compare that to his time in Tampa, where he had 423 points in 628 regular season games for just over a 0.67 point percentage. That is a fairly significant drop in performance for New Jersey versus Tampa. And yes, he is older now in NJ versus then when he was in his prime, and he was injured for a time, so there are reasons for this. However, he was paid $6 million per season to perform like he did in Tampa, so excuses or not, he has not lived up to the contract at this point in time.
There is one exception to that last statement, and that was the playoff run two seasons ago. In 12 games, he produced 7 points and was clutch when the team needed him to be. He was regularly clutch for Tampa in the playoffs too, so this is the one area where his value has carried over so far. And yes, it is perhaps the most important area, as if the Devils want to win it all, they will need clutch postseason performances from the likes of Palat. But they also need to make the playoffs first, and that is one area Ondrej has not helped nearly as much as it was hoped when he was initially brought in.
One of the bigger issues with his underperformance in the regular season is it makes it tougher to field a truly competent top-6 wing corps without having to get outsized performance from someone making considerably less than Palat does. With Palat’s contract, the expectation should be for him to be able to perform as a top 6 winger for this team. Maybe not always a top liner, sure, but definitely as a competent second-line winger playing alongside Jack or Nico. But that has not been the case at all, and even though he does have his share of playing time in that position, his performance is more along the lines of what you would want out of a third-line winger making a third of his current salary.
In the current scenario, Sheldon Keefe will have to make a decision. Does he play Palat on the second line and hope to see improved performance, perhaps closer in line with the 0.67 points per game he was producing in Tampa? Or does he give him more time on the third line, where it seems his performance more lies at this point in time? And if he does that, who does he slot in on the second line? Dawson Mercer? Tomas Tatar? Erik Huala? Stefan Noesen? There are options, but how good are these options? And worth thinking about, how much better would those options be on the third line playing against weaker competition if Palat were living up to that $6 million per year deal? It would really lengthen the roster and allow for more flexibility if he were.
So, coming into his age 33 season, Palat needs to really prove that he is still at least mostly the player he was in Tampa, the player that got him this massive deal in NJ. If he can do that, it opens so many doors for this lineup and makes things a lot easier for the other stars on this team. If he continues to produce at sub-0.5 points per game, however, it will really make the new coaching staff work to try and figure out how to set the lineup and how to generate those extra points that will be needed to keep this team competitive and in the playoff race for all 82 games.