Ahead of a crucial Game 3 at The Rock, this post looks at how the Carolina Hurricanes controlled the matchups in 5-on-5 by examining their most common matchups in Games 1 and 2. This post also explores what the New Jersey Devils can do about it tonight.
Tonight is a crucial Game 3 in the first round series between the New Jersey Devils and the Carolina Hurricanes. All playoff games are important. However, this one is especially important for the Devils. They are down 0-2 in the series to Carolina. Historically, they do well in Game 3 after going down 0-2 with 7 wins. Winning the series, though, is far less likely. Even if they did do it in the first round in 2023, they failed to do it in the second round in 2023 against Carolina. Still, if the Devils want to have a shot at a comeback, then they need to win tonight’s game.
As it stands, the first two games confirmed what I worried about in my series preview. While some of the players are different on Carolina and a lot of the players are different on New Jersey compared with that series, the big question was whether the Devils could handle the Hurricanes’ aggressive offensive game plan. The answer has been a flat no. To echo Jared’s excellent post, they have not been good enough. Carolina has played as they have been for years and their depth, especially at forward, has caused problems. The Devils got dominated in Game 1. While Game 2 was a far better experience to watch, but a horrid 10 minute stretch in the second was enough to lead the Canes to victory (say less about the 3 near-goals for Carolina cleared out). If the Devils are going to pull out a victory at the Rock tonight, then they need to force further changes than what they did in Game 2. One way to do that would be in how New Jersey Devils head coach Sheldon Keefe and his staff dictates the matchups.
How Carolina Used Home Ice
The Hurricanes have not been a good home team in 2024-25. They have been an excellent home team. They have won 31 season games there as well as two of the required four playoff games Carolina will need to advance to the second round. A big reason why has been how Carolina head coach Rob Brind’Amour and his staff has utilized their home ice advantage. Namely, having the last line change.
What this means is that for any stoppage in play that results in a faceoff, the home team can wait until they see who the opposition put on the ice. They then can decide who to put out on the ice against them. That is what is known as matching up. This is ideal if the home team has a player, a line, or a five-man unit that the opposition struggles against – especially if it is a lesser forward line or pairing. Part of the challenge of coaching in hockey is to maintaining the match up as changes are made on the fly. Some coaches will roll their forward lines and defensive pairings, others will keep a close eye on certain players and use them as a guide to get certain players back on the ice. It varies.
For this series so far, Carolina has maintained the same roster and they have been deliberate against the Devils in who their lines are facing up against. Based on the series data at Natural Stat Trick, let us look at whom the Devils’ centers have been matched up with in 5-on-5 play. Why 5-on-5 play? It is the most common situation in hockey, it is where most of the match-ups take place, and it has represented 47-48 minutes of the 60 minute games so far in this series. Oh, and Carolina has controlled much of the 5-on-5 play in both games – yes, even Game 2. This will give some insight as to how that has happened.
Nico Hischier’s Matchup: Hischier has had some varying teammates in both games, but his matchup – and by extension, his line’s matchup, usually with Ondrej Palat and Timo Meier – has faced mostly the same five Hurricanes:
- Logan Stankoven – Hischier’s on-ice stats against him: 17:09 TOI, 25-23 CF, 10-13 SF, 1.35-0.9 xGF, 0-1 GF
- Jordan Martinook – 17:01 TOI, 25-23 CF, 10-13 SF, 1.35-0.9 xGF, 0-1 GF
- Jordan Staal – 17:01 TOI, 26-23 CF, 10-12 SF, 1.43-0.95 xGF, 0-1 GF
- Jaccob Slavin – 16:46 TOI, 24-18 CF, 9-12 SF, 1.31-0.63 xGF, 0-1 GF
- Headbutter Brent Burns – 16:01 TOI, 26-14 CF, 10-9 SF, 1.35-0.49 xGF, 0-0 GF
Hischier and his line has not too badly against Staal’s line – usually a line matched with the one of the opposition’s top forwards – and the presumed top defensive pairing of Carolina. Just edging this five-some in attempts is actually pretty good. Further, it is not as if this group has done a ton of damage with just one goal allowed. Then again, the series is 1-3 in 5-on-5 goals favoring Carolina, so one goal does rankle a bit more.
The bigger issue is the SF, or shots for. Whether it was Hischier, Ondrej Palat, and Timo Meier; or Hischier, Jesper Bratt, and Stefan Noesen, the Devils have not been able to put their attempts on target. The thing about xGF is that while it is driven by scoring chances and high danger scoring chances, it counts its value from attempts – not necessarily shots on target. Frederik Andersen may be playing well but this alone tells me that the unit could stand to be more accurate with their shooting.
Erik Haula’s Matchup: Haula has played largely with Dawson Mercer and Jesper Bratt, especially in Game 2. His matchup has garnered even more minutes at 5-on-5 than Hischier:
- Sebastian Aho – Haula’s on-ice stats against him: 19:07 TOI, 16-12 CF, 5-7 SF, 0.71-0.92 xGF, 0-1 GF
- Jackson Blake – 18:49 TOI, 22-13 CF, 7-8 SF, 1.48-0.95 xGF, 1-1 GF
- Seth Jarvis – 18:40 TOI, 18-12 CF, 7-7 SF, 1.13-0.92 xGF, 1-1 GF
- Dmitry Orlov – 15:24 TOI, 22-7 CF, 7-3 SF, 1.36-0.22 xGF, 1-0 GF
- Jalen Chatfield – 14:12 TOI, 20-9 CF, 6-5 SF, 1.27-0.28 xGF, 1-0 GF
Brind’Amour opted to go a bit power-for-power with Jesper Bratt playing across Carolina’s top scorers of Aho and Jarvis. I have to say a bit because I struggle to call Mercer-Haula-Bratt as a power line. Still, there is a positive here. The 5-on-5 play has been remarkably low event. Keeping Aho, Blake, and Jarvis to not very many shots in 5-on-5 play is rather good and it can help the larger cause of beating Carolina by forcing their other players to step up. The bad news is that the line has also kept the Haula line to little offense. Similar to Hischier’s match up, the Haula line has led in attempts by a good margin but the shots are few in addition to being against them for the forwards.
One really interesting quirk here is the defensive pairing. The Chatfield and Orlov pairing has been beaten a bit more. Shots, while a small amount, have been in the Devils’ favor. I would not call them winning that matchup at all. It even could be a pairing to exploit tonight.
Cody Glass’ Matchup: Cody Glass has centered one of the two bottom six lines for the Devils since his arrival. That has continued into the playoffs, usually alongside Paul Cotter and Stefan Noesen (and one terrible 4:54 stretch with Daniel Sprong). Carolina has had a unit to pick on them.
- Jesperi Kotkaniemi – Glass’ on-ice stats against him: 14:30 TOI, 11-26 CF, 4-11 SF, 0.28-0.98 xGF, 0-0 GF
- Taylor Hall – 13:25 TOI, 8-25 CF, 3-10 SF, 0.08-0.96 xGF, 0-0 GF
- Andrei Svechnikov – 12:33 TOI, 8-23 CF, 3-10 SF, 0.08-0.93 xGF, 0-0 GF
- Sean Walker – 9:36 TOI, 6-18 CF, 3-8 SF, 0.08-0.75 xGF, 0-0 GF
- Shayne Gostisbehere – 8:26 TOI, 5-17 CF, 3-7 SF, 0.08-0.77 xGF, 0-0 GF
The only positive you can say is that the Glass line has not been scored on by this unit of Carolina’s. They were scored on in one (1) shift by Carolina’s fourth line. That aside, the Glass line has been absolutely crushed by this group. The forwards especially have pinned Glass, Cotter, and Sprong/Noesen back for two games. Being suffocated as they have been in the run of play also means the Glass line is not able to generate much offense. And 0.08 xGF from 11 attempts or fewer means their offensive output is neglible. Even if you want to point out how the Devils should not be looking for many goals from Glass, Cotter, or Sprong/Noesen, they were not even remotely close to getting any goals from them in the first two games. This Devils line has Markstrom to thank for the zero goals against. Although if this matchup continues, the goals against may be a matter of when and not if.
This also demonstrates the strength Carolina’s depth. Being able to put the likes of Svechnikov and Hall as part of their bottom six can create match-up problems like this. Brind’Amour knew it and has reliably put them out there against Glass’ line. It is also where the third defensive pairing of Walker and Gostisbehere has appeared. Brind’Amour tends to shelter them in matchups and he absolutely nailed the decision here. No need to worry about Gostisbehere backchecking if he and his teammates keep the opposition in their own half of the rink.
Justin Dowling’s Matchup: Justin Dowling is representative of at least two issues with the 2024-25 Devils. In this playoff series, he may be trying real hard and it is not without some effort. But it is clear that he and his line with Tomas Tatar and Nathan Bastian (with cameos from Palat and Cotter) has struggled with their matchup:
- Jack Roslovic – Dowlings’ on-ice stats against him: 15:24 TOI, 14-22 CF, 8-8 SF, 0.87-1.43 xGF, 0-0 GF
- William Carrier – 14:27 TOI, 12-21 CF, 6-8 SF, 0.60-1.40 xGF, 0-0 GF
- Eric Robinson – 13:19 TOI, 10-22 CF, 6-8 SF, 0.60-1.43 xGF, 0-0 GF
- Shayne Gostisbehere – 12:57 TOI, 14-25 CF, 7-9 SF, 0.85-1.97 xGF, 0-0 GF
- Sean Walker – 12:46 TOI, 15-24 CF, 8-9 SF, 0.87-0.77 xGF, 0-0 GF
The other half of the Devils’ bottom six forwards has drawn a fourth line from Carolina. A fourth line with a winger who had 22 goals this season. It is also the other main matchup for that third defensive pairing, showing again how Brind’Amour shelters them and how it has worked out well for them. And it has with Carolina dominating in attempts and expected goals. Similar to the Glass match-up, goals against may be a matter of when and not if should this continue.
In defense of the Dowling line (?!), they have surprisingly been more even when it comes to actual shots on net. And the shots have been on target a bit more often than the Haula-Aho matchup. Unlike the Glass line, the Dowling line has been close to scoring a goal. Perhaps you were mad at Nathan Bastian not finding the slot in Game 2 from the slot. I was not happy about it either. Yet, it was far better of a chance than all of his compatriots in the black hole that is the Devils’ bottom six forward group.
All told, the matchups in 5-on-5 between Carolina and New Jersey have been something you can set your watch to. Brind’Amour started out with these and never changed it because, why would he? While the scoring may be low among them, Carolina has been more or less winning at least half of them outright and arguments can be made about the other two. It has contributed to Carolina’s hold on each game – even against a better effort from the Devils in Game 2 – that they went on to win.
What Can the Devils Do About It?
First and foremost, they have to change the matchups. Keeping the same four common matchups from the first two games would be a terrible idea. We know the Devils lost them. Rather than repeat defeat, there has to be some changes among them. This can be done provided that Keefe and his staff plan for it from the start of tonight’s game. It appears that the same forward lines will be used in Game 3 that were used in Game 2 per Amanda Stein’s report from Thursday’s practice. That may be fine. But it is the matchups in 5-on-5 that has to change. One option:
- Hischier line against Kotkaneimi line
- Haula line against Aho line
- Glass line against Roslovic line
- Dowling line against Staal line
This option keeps Haula from keeping the Hurricanes’ top forwards at bay. It would free up Hischier, Meier, and Palat to pick on one of the lesser lines on Carolina. Dowling’s line could be used against Staal’s line as Dowling’s line is not expected to score much anyway so the defensive acumen of Staal and Jordan Martinook would not be as much of a factor. Glass can have a go against Roslovic line as a hope that they can generate something themselves.
Another option:
- Hischier line against Aho line
- Haula line against Staal line
- Glass line against Roslovic line
- Dowling line against Kotkaniemi line
This option maintains a power-for-power matchup to keep Aho and Jarvis from pounding the Devils’ bottom six. Bratt and Haula can provide different looks for Staal and the two bottom six lines can flip-flop their matchups in the hope for something better.
A third option:
- Hischier line against Aho line and offensive zone starts against Roslovic line
- Haula line against Staal line and offensive zone starts against Kotkaniemi line
- Glass line against Roslovic line
- Dowling line against Kotkaniemi line
This is a variation of the previous option to override certain matchups when favorable positional situations show up. This may lead to extra shifts for the Devils’ top players. With the series at 0-2 and the game at home, that is a risk that I think may be worth taking.
And let us not forget the defensive pairings. Keefe could forego matching forwards and target defensive pairings. Such as putting out the more rested of either the Hischier or Haula lines against Walker-Gostisbehere in offensive zone starts. Orlov-Chatfield seems suspect? Give them a more shifts against of the Hischier line, or opt to use that pairing to give Dowling or Glass lines a go. The Slavin-Burns pairing will be difficult regardless so sacrificing a unit against them to free up a more talented line to go after someone else could be a risk worth taking. Especially as the game is close.
Whatever is decided – and feel free to have your suggestions in the comments – it should not be what Carolina matched up with in the first two games. That did not work in 5-on-5 on the scoreboard or in the run of play.
Second, adjustments are mandatory. The frustration I have with Keefe this season is the lack of changes to the gameplan. As much as I want to see one, I do not expect it in the 85th game of this campaign. Keefe has shown he can change lines, bench players, and load up units for certain situations as necessary. He absolutely needs to do this in Game 3.
The thing about hockey is that as much as we can argue, discuss, and agree on matters before the puck drops, the events of the game could lead to us to something very different from what we expected. It is not guarantee that someone who had a great night in one game will have another great night in the next game. For example: Logan Stankoven was a stud in Game 1 and he was just kind of there in Game 2. This means the Devils’ coaching staff would be wise to prepare his players and his staff for changes as the game goes on.
The main thing is that unless Keefe and staff gets lucky with the initial matchup, he should prepare to move players around as necessary. That requires the coaching staff to prepare the players for changes as the game goes on. This also applies in the opposite case. If a Hurricane is flying out there early on, then Keefe needs to switch up who is going against them – ideally before it costs them on the scoreboard.
Third, they should try whatever throws off Carolina. The other main theme from the first two games was how much Carolina controlled the game in 5-on-5 hockey. Even with a better effort in Game 2, the Canes still led in attempts, shots, scoring chances, and high danger chances in the second and third periods in Raleigh. Carolina has not only won their matchups but they have basically run them like a system.
One way to beat a system is to give it something unexpected to deal with. This could mean adjusting lines on the fly. This could mean focusing the matchup to player-to-player or pairing-to-pairing instead of whole five-man units. This could even mean, as suggested with one of the options, ignoring the general matchup when there is an offensive zone start. Or if the opposition gets gassed. Or if they expected a dump-and-chase line and not a line that prefers to carry it in. There is only so much Keefe can do without going fully unhinged with frankly bizarre combinations. But a little oddity could force Carolina to change things on their own end, and that can open things up as the game continues.
Fourth, above all else: the Devils need to make your shots count. More specific for the Devils players themselves, their accuracy in this series has been underwhelming. In Game 1, only 21 of their 54 shooting attempts in 5-on-5 play made it to Andersen. That is a shot success rate of about 38.8%. In Game 2, only 18 of 46 attempts in 5-on-5 hockey made it to the net for a shot success rate of roughly 39.1%. By contrast, Carolina has a 50% shot success rate in Game 1 (31 for 62) and ~42.8% in Game 2 (24 for 56).
This is a credit to Carolina’s defensive work as they have been able to get in the way of shots and/or help influence attempts to miss their target. It is another positive for Carolina in the matchups, which again, the Devils’ main four lines have far fewer shots than the attempts they do generate – even if they have out-attempted their most common matchup.
I doubt the Hurricanes are going to give up on man-on-man defense or get somehow worse on defense for this game. Changing the matchups should help the Devils get more opportunities to shoot the puck. For the Devils to make the most of that, they need to get more rubber on target in this game. Beating Frederik Andersen is possible. It will be less possible if the pucks are missing or getting stuffed. This requires patience, making good reads and decisions with the puck, and being an option so the puck carrier does not feel they have to force something. Doing so will tip the matchup further in their favor and can be built on in the home games to come.
Final Thoughts and Your Take
This is not to say that this is the most important thing the Devils need to have going for them to win this critical Game 3. They still need Jacob Markstrom to be as great as he can be. They really need to be a net positive on special teams. They have to play with a clue to avoid taking needless penalties. Yes, even in a world where Brent Burns can throw Glasgow Kisses without a whistle, the Devils still need to not give Carolina power plays. They still have a lot to do right to get the all-important win tonight.
Central to that are the matchups in 5-on-5 play. One of the causes of their 0-2 series deficit is that the Devils have been handled in the run of play with these matchups. Carolina has been consistent with their five-man units lining up across specific Devils’ lines. Rod Brind’Amour and his staff have been impeccable in how they have used their home ice advantage of the last change. They have shown that matchups matter in 5-on-5 play and they have used it to control much of the game in their two wins. It is now Sheldon Keefe’s and his staff’s turns to use for their own in an attempt to turn this series around. The status quo from the first two will not do. It is time for changes.
Now that you know what I think, I want to know what you think. Did you know that Carolina was that consistent and regular in their matchups in 5-on-5 play in Games 1 and 2? Assuming the same forward lineup for Game 3, how would you match the lines against the Hurricanes in Game 3? What adjustments would you be looking for? How would you throw off Carolina if you could? What do you think the Devils can do to get more shots on net? Please leave your answers and other thoughts about the matchups ahead of tonight’s critical game in the comments. Thank you for reading.