Let’s take a look at how the two fourth lines – those led by Lazar and those led by Justin Dowling since Lazar’s injury – have fared over the first quarter of the season. Is this something worth fretting over?
Through roughly a quarter of the 2024-25 season, the New Jersey Devils are 12-7-2 — a record that is good for first in the Metropolitan Division by points, but fourth by point percentage. This might cause some anxiety for fans as they wonder if the team has taken advantage of the early lead they have in games played, but the Devils are solidly in a playoff spot. Currently, the second Wild Card spot in the Eastern Conference belongs to the Boston Bruins at a measly 8-8-3. The Devils still have quite a gap between them and the bubble teams in the East. By any standard, the team is looking good.
So you might be wondering: what is there to complain about? What residual anxiety about the team’s performance is on people’s minds right now? While most of the team has been performing well, Devils writers have been sounding the alarm on the fourth line for about a week now. James Nichols was first on the issue, arguing that the ice time distribution will wear down the top three lines. Now, Gabriel Trevino of NJ.com is joining the Fix the Fourth Line Brigade. Trevino says in his article about the newest fourth line of Tomas Tatar, Justin Dowling, and Kurtis MacDermid,
In 26:46 together, according to Natural Stat Trick, that fourth line has allowed three goals and scored none. They’ve allowed 14 scoring chances against while generating eight of their own as they’ve started 43% of the time in the offensive zone.
Nichols and Trevino are correct that the current fourth line is playing fewer minutes per game than the lines led by Curtis Lazar, but I disagree that it has been very much less effective in its given ice time. Rather, I do not see much of a difference in their five-on-five performance, with the caveat that the new fourth line has been burned on the few chances they have allowed. Below, you can see the several configurations of the fourth line in addition to how Lazar and Bastian have personally performed. All data is from Natural Stat Trick.
- Lazar and Bastian, with all left wingers: 81:04 TOI (8:06/game), 44.38 CF%, 27-48 shots for-against, 1-4 goals for-against, 42.75 xGF%
- Bastian, without Lazar: 30:52 TOI, 67.27 CF%, 15-9 shots for-against, 2-0 goals for-against, 69.06 xGF%
- Lazar, without Bastian: 26:25 TOI, 37.78 CF%, 8-14 shots for-against, 1-1 goals for-against, 41.96 xGF%
And the fourth lines that played more than 15 minutes, in approximate chronological order:
- Cotter-Lazar-Bastian: 25:16 TOI, 39.47 CF%, 4-9 shots for-against, 0-1 goals for-against, 49.98 xGF%
- Palat-Lazar-Bastian: 31:58 TOI, 39.47 CF%, 13-30 shots for-against, 0-3 goals for-against, 29.99 xGF%
- Tatar-Lazar-Bastian: 17:25 TOI, 61.76 CF%, 8-8 shots for-against, 1-0 goals for-against, 72.41 xGF%
- MacDermid-Dowling-Tatar: 30:07 TOI (4:18/game), 41.30 CF%, 9-10 shots for-against, 0-3 goals for-against, 36.86 xGF%
Trevino is correct that the Tatar-Lazar-Bastian line showed promise in the couple of games they played together, but it was a tiny sample with Tatar joining a line that had really not done well in its other 10 games, regardless of who was playing left wing. The truth is that the fourth line has been a weak point for the Devils all season — Kurtis MacDermid and Justin Dowling being in that group has had almost no impact on a quality-of-performance basis. The Dowling line has largely been a nothing line, which is fine when your top three lines are expected to get the lion’s share of goals scored during their ice time.
Why Not Use Dowling or Tatar on Special Teams?
The trouble with keeping the fourth like this for a long period of time, as Nichols and Trevino pointed out, is how much ice time players like Nico Hischier and Jack Hughes have to pick up to replace the contributions of Curtis Lazar and Nathan Bastian. When I had written an article on those injuries a couple weeks ago, I offered a few possibilities for how the Devils might respond to the hole in their lineup. Very predictably, they chose a conservative approach in playing MacDermid alongside Dowling, as I do not expect them to jump to acquire a new player while they are still trying to accrue cap space for the trade deadline.
Aside from biting the bullet and sending the fourth line out onto the ice for an extra few minutes at five-on-five every night, the Devils can lessen the severity of their roster situation by using Justin Dowling and Tomas Tatar on the penalty kill. Of course, Tatar is not known for his penalty killing prowess. A 5’10” forechecking playmaker with average speed is not exactly an example of the prototypical penalty killer, but he has only been on the ice for two power play goals against in his career, totaling just under 34 minutes played, with the last such goal against coming in Montreal in the 2019-20 season. Over the 2023-24 season, Tatar had 18 and a half minutes of ice time on the Colorado and Seattle penalty kills. Dowling, meanwhile, hasn’t taken fill-in penalty kill shifts since the 2021-22 season in Vancouver, as he has been on the ice for one power play goal against in 17 career penalty killing minutes in 109 games.
My assumption is that it will take until January to get one of Lazar or Bastian back. If the team is serious about limiting the pressure on their top six, they should try to incorporate their fourth liners in Dowling and Tatar into their penalty kill as a tertiary or quaternary unit. If they are at least capable of filling in that role, that means that the Hischier-Mercer kill unit can take a shift off. That means that Sheldon Keefe might not be tempted to use Jack Hughes on spot duty on the penalty kill. If Dowling and Tatar were just used to do that, I do not think anyone would be able to complain about the fourth line.
Are There Really Other Options?
In their articles, both Nichols and Trevino pointed to Max Willman as a potential option to replace Kurtis MacDermid in the lineup. Of all forwards who played on the 2023-24 Devils, Max Willman owned the worst CF% (39.85) and the worst shots for percentage (37.42). He also had an impossibly low 27.82 xGF%, meaning that he was incredibly, incredibly lucky to be on the ice for the Devils outscoring their opponents 5-4 in his even strength ice time. Only Willman’s Corsi percentage from last year is marginally better than MacDermid’s current CF%, while a repeat of Willman’s other percentages from last year would represent a downgrade from the performance of MacDermid-Dowling-Tatar. I stand by my previous opinion that I would only consider calling up Brian Halonen, Nolan Foote, or Adam Beckman to temporarily fill in on the fourth line. Since each of these players are waivers-eligible, though, the team would have to give a call-up like that a lot of consideration, as calling someone up to replace MacDermid for a handful of games could result in the Devils losing that player entirely.
Back-to-Backs and Travel
Over the next two months, the Devils have back-to-backs on November 29 to 30, December 27 to 28, New Year’s Eve and New Year’s Day, and January 18 to 19. According to PuckPedia, as of today, the Devils have $2,714,954 in current cap space after sending Dowling and DeSimone down to help accumulate Deadline Cap Space. When the Devils next play on Thursday, they will need to call someone up to be their 12th forward — I assume it will be Dowling again. When his cap hit is factored in, the Devils will have a tick under $2 million in cap space. That is plenty to call another player or two up from Utica.
However, in the name of having the most flexibility to add firepower later in the season, I do not think it is a great idea to call anyone up just so the team can have an extra healthy scratch in the press box. As long as the team is winning, MacDermid and Dowling are the least of my worries. The two caveats here are back-to-back sets and road trips. With only four back-to-backs over the next two months, the Devils do not have to worry very much about their players wearing down from constant play and travel.
Even their trips are not substantial for the most part — until the Devils go on a six-game, east-to-west-to-east coast trip from December 28 to January 9. This trips starts in Carolina before the team heads to California for a New Year’s back-to-back against the Ducks and Kings, which is followed by the Sharks and Kraken on January 4 and 6. After the west coast portion, the trip ends with a divisional matchup against the New York Rangers — the third of three meetings with our archrival in the months of December and January. If Nate Bastian returns by this point, the team should have the manpower for the trip without a call-up. If Bastian is still recovering from his jaw injury, this would be a good time for Tom Fitzgerald to bring an additional player on board, though he would still have to keep waivers in mind when choosing who he wants to join the team.
Just Deal With It For Now
My take on the fourth line is that it does not represent a significant enough decline from when Curtis Lazar and Nathan Bastian were playing to be concerned about it. More ice time for the team’s best players is generally not a bad thing, and the Devils have not been overplaying their forwards. Only Hughes and Hischier are above 20 minutes, at a whopping 20:27 and 20:22 average time on ice, respectively. This is simply the territory of being an elite or franchise center. If you were disturbed by Nico Hischier playing 23 or 24 minutes a couple times, making you worry that he’s being burdened with too much ice time, take a look at Nathan MacKinnon’s history. The last time MacKinnon averaged under 20 minutes a game was in 2017-18, when he was 22 years old. These days, MacKinnon averages his ice time 23:22 per night. Nico Hischier is 25. He can handle it. If a top forward can’t handle over 20 minutes a game, I would be worried that they can’t handle playoff hockey.
The Devils also have a reliable third center in Erik Haula, who is averaging 14:44 a night. While I am disappointed by Haula’s streakiness (in terms of point production) yet again this season, he is averaging two fewer minutes per game than he was under Lindy Ruff. If you were looking for someone to pick up some of slack, I would look at Haula taking on more responsibility before thinking about replacing any of the fourth liners. With Dawson Mercer working his behind off in each of his roles, and with Noesen moving up the lineup to provide grit in the top six, Haula could stand to show a bit more in his role.
Being patient will pay off in the long run. By not calling up extra players to sit, Fitzgerald is making it possible to add the kinds of pieces down the line that make you — the fans — confident that the team can be a contender. PuckPedia has the team on track to accumulate up to $9,760,906 in Deadline Cap Space, though that number will fluctuate over time as Fitzgerald calls players up and sends them down. In the meantime, enjoy the fights from MacDermid, and take solace in knowing that the team is only sacrificing a few measly mediocre minutes for him to be the team’s protection.
Your Thoughts
What do you think of the fourth line? Do you agree with Trevino and Nichols that Fitzgerald needs to act? Or do you think patience is warranted? Leave your thoughts in the comments below, and thanks for reading.