Developing to be top defensemen in the near future, Luke Hughes and Simon Nemec will need a lot of playing time this year.
The 2023-24 season was a special hell for a lot of fans of the New Jersey Devils. This was mostly true of their play in the defensive end, which, combined with AHL-level goaltending, led to one of the worst year-to-year declines in team history right after breaking records for the largest increase in team points during the 2022-23 season. An unfortunate truth being that 19 and 20-year old defensemen in Simon Nemec and Luke Hughes had to play top four minutes night in and night out due to injuries around the lineup, the weight of the world was often on their shoulders. In 82 games, Luke Hughes had 21:28 of ice time per game, while Simon Nemec had 19:52 of ice time per appearance in 60 games played.
At the very least, for development’s sake, Hughes and Nemec should be getting similar ice time next season, right? While that might be an easy enough task for Luke Hughes to accomplish under Sheldon Keefe, I am more worried about Simon Nemec with the now long-term clog of high-dollar right-handed defensemen in Dougie Hamilton and Brett Pesce.
In his three seaons with the New Jersey Devils, Dougie Hamilton has averaged 21:28 of ice time per game. Over the last three seasons with Carolina, Brett Pesce has averaged 21:22 of ice time per game. If Sheldon Keefe were to keep that usage steady, that would amount to 42:50 of ice time going to the top-dollar guys on the defense, leaving roughly 17 minutes and 10 seconds, on average, for Simon Nemec. Losing over two minutes a game would amount to a loss of nearly 200 minutes over the course of an 82-game schedule. Those numbers could ultimately figure to be even lower, assuming Keefe only runs one defenseman at a time on the power play, but the Devils are also probably going to run fewer seven-defenseman lineups than last season, and there will be times they need to step up and play extra when a teammate is hurting in the locker room.
The left side is less complicated. When healthy during the 2021-22 and 2022-23 seasons, Jonas Siegenthaler averaged 20:21 of ice time per game. This dropped to a bit over 19 minutes last season, but Siegenthaler often played through injuries, and it’s not surprising that his ice time dipped as a result. Brenden Dillon, on the other hand, has not been the biggest minutes eater since his early career with the Dallas Stars, with just 19:04 of ice time per game over his three seasons with Winnipeg. With just 39:25 combined in what I would call expected ice time on the left side for the team’s veterans, that leaves around 20:35 per game for Luke Hughes, which may be appropriate, depending on how Sheldon Keefe decides to deploy his defensemen.
Getting the Right Special Teams Ice Time
According to Natural Stat Trick, Hughes and Nemec played little on the penalty kill last season — but the team largely did well during that time. Nemec played a more reliable sample of 50:17, or 0:50 a game. Hughes barely saw the ice in 4v5 situations, with just 7:25 of ice time — 0:05 a game, which in reality were a smattering of shifts in the second half of the season as the defense grew thinner and thinner. Nemec’s 4.77 on-ice goals against per 60 penalty killing minutes would put him in elite company around the league if he played more consistently in the role, though his expected numbers are a bit worse, defensively at 6.36 xGA/60, with the Devils creating enough shots to muster a little over one expected shorthanded goal per 60 minutes. On the other hand, Luke Hughes was on the ice for one goal against in his penalty killing minutes, which gives him a poorer 8.09 GA/60 PK minutes, though the Devils had a whopping 2.93 xGF/60 and only 3.32 xGA/60.
How does that compare to the veterans on the team? On the left side, Dillon and Siegenthaler both averaged 2:11 of shorthanded ice time per game over the last three seasons, with Dillon sporting 0.69 GF/60 and 7.94 GA/60 with 1.09 xGF/60 and 8.96 xGA/60, as he significantly outperformed his expected numbers. Siegenthaler was better at preventing shots and scoring chances, but still had 0.93 GF/60 and 8.21 GA/60 on 0.83 xGF/60 and 6.98 xGA/60, as he significantly underperformed his expected numbers.
On the right side, there is more of a disparity. Dougie Hamilton has not been a consistent penalty killer over the years, with just 0:17 of ice time per game over the last three seasons compared to Brett Pesce’s 2:30 per game. That means that Simon Nemec played more shorthanded shifts in his rookie season than Hamilton played over the last three years. Still, in limited time, Dougie saw 7.33 GA/60 when shorthanded on 0.88 xGF/60 and 5.88 xGA/60. Brett Pesce had top notch results, with 0.86 GF/60 and 4.95 GA/60 on 1.17 xGF/60 and 6.7 xGA/60.
There is a clearer path for Simon Nemec to get shorthanded ice time this season with the departures of Brendan Smith and John Marino, but not necessarily Luke Hughes. However, defensemen take penalties, and Brenden Dillon is a defenseman who takes a lot of them. Dillon was in the box for 92 minutes last season, and he has never played in a season where he posted fewer than 60 PIMs. He would have been on track for 72, had the 56-game COVID season been a full schedule. That’s at least better than his younger years, when he was on track for 111 in his rookie year — the 2012-13 lockout season. The basic penalty killing units should probably feature Siegenthaler-Pesce and Dillon-Nemec, but Luke Hughes should be the first man up whenever one of them is in the box.
Why try to get Hughes more penalty killing minutes? Well, despite his 25 power play points for the Devils last season, I often felt that he struggled on the top power play unit. Banishing the 70-point defenseman Dougie Hamilton to the second wave of the power play (where he was on track for 16 goals and 16 assists, had he not been hurt just 20 games into the season) was an early tip that Travis Green was a blight on the team’s offensive stylings. With that bomb of a shot, Dougie is an easy bet to score six, eight, or even 10 goals on the power play, which forces opponent defenses to actually pressure the point, allowing players like Jack Hughes and Jesper Bratt to get the puck along the wall without immediately being smothered.
Instead, giving Hughes and Nemec (who was awful on the second power play unit) regular penalty killing minutes — preferably against opponents’ second power play units — gives them a chance to further develop their defensive skills. I have no doubt that Hughes and Nemec can be very creative and effective at even strength, but defensemen need to play defense to be valuable. Looking back at the chart JFresh posted regarding what was then the Marino and Pesce rumor displaying how defensemen defend the rush and in-zone dangerous passes, look at where Simon Nemec finds himself.
JFreshHockey
While John Marino allowed far too many passes sneak through around the net, Simon Nemec was the only player on the team who was worse in this area. He was, however, very good against the rush. Since being on the penalty kill largely requires excellent stick positioning and awareness of passing and shooting lanes, pairing up with one of the best in the business in Brenden Dillon could really help Nemec grow into an all-around excellent defenseman. Luke Hughes also getting into more defensive situations would be of benefit to his growth as well, as learning to use his long reach and skating ability in the defensive zone could carry over into his ability to defend at even strength, when he sometimes gets caught wandering out of position. Extra penalty killing minutes for Hughes would also help to offset any loss of minutes from Dougie Hamilton taking the helm on PP1.
Mitigating Risk, Maximizing Usage
According to HockeyViz’s Synthetic Goals value model, Luke Hughes and Simon Nemec were already second pair-caliber defenseman in their rookie seasons. Dougie Hamilton breaks the scale of the model, showing way above the first pair upper threshold, while Brett Pesce was rated between Hughes and Nemec as a second pair defenseman. Meanwhile, Brendan Dillon was just above the lower threshold for first pair value defensemen, while Jonas Siegenthaler declined from above the upper threshold in 2021-22, to a third pairing level in 2022-23, to non-NHL level in 2023-24.
Minimizing the defensive risk the team faces over the next season without overreliance on Hughes and Nemec depends largely on Hamilton, Pesce, and Dillon maintaining their effectiveness. While the team should be counting on Jonas Siegenthaler to make a big step back in the right direction, he needs to prove it with his play. Can Sheldon Keefe run a Siegenthaler-Hamilton pairing, with an extra shutdown pair of Dillon-Pesce, allowing Hughes and Nemec to play together at even strength? Or will Siegenthaler need to be banished to minimal usage on the third pair, saddling Nemec or Pesce with a repeat underperformance from Siegenthaler?
Getting a Hughes-Nemec pairing regular minutes would be vastly beneficial for the Devils this season and down the line. Among pairings with over 100 minutes played last season, the Hughes-Nemec pairing ranked second in CF% at 58.49, just behind the Hughes-Miller pairing, while ranking second in GF% at 69.23 (9 GF to 4 GA), behind the Hughes-DeSimone pairing (7 GF to 1 GA). These numbers hold up to the expected numbers pretty well, as the Hughes-Nemec pairing was second only to the Bahl-Miller pairing in xGF% at 61.44, with the Siegenthaler-Hamilton pairing coming in third at 57.08. Hughes and Nemec dominated high danger chances like no other Devils pairing did, accounting for 64.29% of opportunities.
Even accounting for situational usage, the Hughes-Nemec pairing should remain effective if paired together next season. Having at least three, hopefully four reliable veterans in the lineup means that when they hit the ice at even strength, they will not have to face top competition. Facing down a rush from Connor McDavid? That sounds like a job for Brenden Dillon and Brett Pesce. But facing opponent second, third, and fourth lines? When the team plays at home and has the last change, I would hope that Keefe chooses to ice Hughes and Nemec or the Hamilton pairings in those situations. Playing against opponents who are less skilled instead of wading in a shark pool on a nightly basis, Hughes and Nemec can reach new heights in their second season and begin a partnership that can last the next 10, 15, or 20 years.
Your Thoughts
What do you think of having Hughes and Nemec play together at even strength? Do you think Keefe should give them more penalty killing responsibilities? Do you think the veterans will hold up their end of the bargain this year? Leave your thoughts in the comments below, and thanks for reading.