Back in November, I wrote that Jesper Bratt was a top offensive winger in the NHL. He still is as he continues to be one of the league’s leaders in assists this season. This post goes into more detail about Bratt’s role in terms supplying goals – especially now with Jack Hughes and Dougie Hamilton injured.
Assists are crucial in hockey because not many goals happen without some kind of support from a teammate. A one-timer needs someone to feed the shooter the puck. The blast from the point usually needs someone to get the puck to the point. Even a breakaway or an odd-man rush has someone create it with a pass. Do not devalue the assist in a sport where they are common. Enough to a point where two assists can be credited for a goal. It absolutely should not be devalued by the People Who Matter when it comes to Jesper Bratt. He has been the team’s main supplier of goals in this season. A role that takes on more, not less, importance with the loss of The Big Deal to injury.
Jesper Bratt is no stranger to being a major producer for the Devils. He has achieved a fourth-straight season of 70 points or more already. He is on pace for breaking the 80-point plateau easily with 73 points. It is likely he will set a new career high in points with this season. He just set one in assists. Last season, he had 56 in 82 games. After last night’s game, he has 57 assists. There are 17 games left to play and the franchise record is Scott Stevens’ 60. Does he best it? I say he does it. It may even happen before the end of next week.
To put that in perspective, here is a list of NHL players with more than 55 assists as of March 12, 2025: Nathan MacKinnon (75), Nikita Kucherov (64), Mitch Marner (59), Connor McDavid (58), and Jack Eichel (58). Bratt is definitely still one of the top offensive wingers in the league. That was true in November and it is true now in mid-March. After all, only five of the best players on the entire planet have more assists than Bratt. Let us detail how he has done it and what could happen next.
Who Bratt Has Assisted
The easy answer is The Big Deal and it is the correct answer per Natural Stat Trick. Of Bratt’s 55 assists (last night’s game isnt included from here on out), 18 were for goals by Jack Hughes. He ended his season with 27 so two-thirds of #86’s goals had a #63 on the scoresheet. The second most common player he has helped is one of his common teammates on the team’s primary power play unit: Nico Hischier. He has 10 – the tenth was in the 5-3 win over Columbus – out of the 27 Hischier has scored. Seven of those ten were on the power play. The PP1 connection between the two has been very functional.
From then on, it gets a bit more mixed. Bratt’s other common linemate in 5-on-5 play until the past few weeks has been Ondrej Palat. He has set up seven of Palat’s 13 goals. Going back to a PP1 connection, six of Stefan Noesen’s 19 goals had an assist from Bratt. All but one were on the power play. Another PP1 connection with Dougie Hamilton has born some fruit; five of Hamilton’s nine goals have had an assist from Bratt. The mix gets smaller from then on. Just three assists each with Luke Hughes (6 goals) and Timo Meier (18 goals) and one assist on a goal each by Brett Pesce (2 goals), Seamus Casey (4 goals), and Paul Cotter (14 goals).
That takes care of who Bratt set up for goals. What about whom else he has had assists with? Again, the clear leaders were The Big Deal (14 assists with) and Hamilton (10) – who are both unavailable. Hischier leads a plurality with five followed by Luke Hughes with four. Only three each with Noesen, Pesce, and Meier, two with Palat, and one each by Cotter, Jonathan Kovacevic, Brenden Dillon, and newcomer Cody Glass. Bratt may have set up a lot of scores but there are no immediate heir apparents with Jack Hughes and Hamilton being out.
What about the people who set up Bratt for his 18 goals? Again, the most common assisters for his goals were The Big Deal with eight and Hamilton with six. Palat and Dillon were the only ones to put up more than two assists on Bratt’s goals this season and they had three and two, respectively. The field of one assist each is claimed by Kovacevic, Glass, Hischier, Noesen, and Tomas Tatar.
This kind of look at Bratt’s assists show which players he has been most productive with. That it was with two currently injured and important players is sobering given how much Bratt has produced. The remainder – outside of a power play – does not immediately show who else he can set up.
It is telling that he has had more than twice as many assists with The Big Deal instead of his other linemate in Palat. It is also a sign of how productive that primary power play unit is as Bratt has at least four assists with four other members of that unit (and 2 power play assists with Palat). It is also proof that a Bratt-Meier connection may not be so productive despite one being a set-up guy (Bratt) and one being a shooter (Meier). The 2 total goals in 209 minutes together also show that. With The Big Deal out for the remainder of the season, Sheldon Keefe and his staff will need to find some other combinations to yield results. As well as to keep most of that primary power play unit together in light of Hughes and Hamilton being out. Bratt did put up a three-point night against Columbus plus a two-assist night in Dallas, so its not like he went dark after the injury to the Big Deal. But this is something Keefe will need to figure out as soon as possible.
But the Goals?
Bratt only having 18 goals seems small for someone being paid as much as him. Which is $9 million for this season. After all, Timo Meier also only has 18 goals as of Wednesday night and he has been creamed in the comments by the People Who Matter for not scoring enough. The difference is that, again, Bratt has been involved with the direct creation of 55 other goals. Meier has not with only 24 assists to his name. How can this be?
Simply put, Bratt has not been as prolific of a shooter as he was last season. Last season, Bratt had 248 shots on net in 82 games. That is an average of 3.02 shots per game. This season, he has 145 in 66 games prior to last night’s game. That is an average of approximately 2.2 shots per game. That is stark difference as that one extra shot per game could make a difference. It could even be a goal.
It is not just the shots on net that went down from last season. His whole shot volume has went down. Per Natural Stat Trick, his 448 attempts (5.46 per game) yielded 28.59 expected goals in 2023-24. He even averaged 1.45 high danger attempts per game. This season, he has 308 attempts in 66 games for an average of 4.66 per game – nearly a drop of one whole attempt. His high danger attempts per game fell to 1.06 for this season. This is not to say that his attempts have been bad. An expected goal total of 21.86 from it is good. It is also fifth on the team and not likely going to reach 28 again given the fewer number of attempts overall. This is somewhat unfortunate because Bratt’s shooting percentage actually improved from last season. He shot at 10.9% last season. He is at 12.4% for this season. Maybe he has better fortune in 2024-25 but it is not likely going to take him to 27 goals again (last season’s goal total) unless he gets on a massive heater.
And with so much ice time with the Big Deal and a strong power play unit, this was fine. Again, 55 assists is an elite amount for this season. Helping to create goals helps the New Jersey Devils a lot. But it did appear to come at a cost of shooting less and deferring more than he did last season. With Hughes and Hamilton out, will Bratt shoot more? Maybe. In the four games since The Big Deal was hurt (Hamilton was hurt in the first period in Dallas), Bratt put up two, one, four, and one shots on net respectively. Eight in four games is an average of two shots – more consistent with his season so far. Same with his shooting attempts. Bratt put up 18 in his last four games for an average of 4.5 per game. Again, that is close to what he has already been doing this season. Early signs show that what you have seen from Bratt this season is what you are going to continue to see.
Which may be fine. Once again, he has been an elite supplier of goals this season.
The On-Ice Rates Are Still Offensively Good
Also adding to the fine-ness is that the Devils’ offense has been prolific with Bratt on the ice. When Bratt has taken a shift in 5-on-5 play this season, the Devils have (ranks are among Devils with at least 300 minutes of ice time):
- Generated 68.06 CF/60, 3rd on the Devils
- Generated 29.77 SF/60, 5th on the Devils
- Generated 2.99 xGF/60, 4th on the Devils
- Generated 3.21 GF/60, 2nd on the Devils
The Devils ahead of Bratt include the likes of The Big Deal and Meier except in shots, where the rates are higher with Hischier and Hamilton plus The Big Deal and Meier. In other words, the team’s top players. For what it is worth, when Bratt takes a shift, the Devils out-attempt, out-shoot, and out-score their opponents. Even if Bratt was just riding with Hughes or Hamilton, he was not dragging the rates of offense down. Something the Devils have had way too much of on this roster. At a minimum, we have to conclude that Bratt has been a support. We know he has been more involved than that. The points show that. The run of play shows that. The fact that Ondrej Palat – who has played a lot of this season with Hughes and Bratt – does not have rates this good shows what a passenger would look like on a top line. Bratt has far superior on-ice rates for offense than Palat. We know Bratt has been more than just someone out there.
So He’s Been Good, So Productive, So What?
Well, this is an appreciate post following up on what I wrote about the player back in November. No, he did not sustain being a top offensive player in the NHL but he has sustained being one of the most productive wingers. He has continued to be a source of points on a team bereft of them without Hughes or Hischier this season. With Hughes out along with Hamilton, there will be more pressure of Bratt to keep being as productive as he has been.
The good news is that is very much possible – and even probable. He may not shoot the puck more, but that he can still rack up multi-point nights without #86 or #7 is very encouraging. It may look odd to see him line up with Cody Glass and Erik Haula as he did against Columbus on Tuesday. But absent any other known productive combinations, Keefe and his staff will mix and match until they find something that works over the next 16 games. Besides, that odd-looking combo did not keep Bratt from putting up a goal and two assists to remain among the top scorers in the NHL. Bratt will continue to be the team’s major supplier.
Which, as a final point, I have to write in earnest: we all need to hope he does not get hurt. Your mileage may vary as to whether he would be the most valuable Devil after The Big Deal (I think it’s Hischier but it is close). But losing Bratt in anything more than a minor capacity would be absolutely crushing for an offense that has been so top-heavy for most of this season. We should appreciate and we should also hope he remains to be OK. The good news is that Bratt has yet to miss a game since the 2021-22 season. His ironman streak would stand out if it were not for Dawson Mercer. All the same, Bratt is an important part of the team. An importance now magnified with Hughes and Hamilton out, especially on offense. After all, he has been the Devils’ main supplier.
What do you make of Bratt’s season so far? With The Big Deal out for the season, is Bratt more important to the team than before? Or is his role and value about the same? What do you expect Bratt to do for the next 16 games? Will he continue to be one of the NHL’s leaders in assists? Please leave your answers and other thoughts about Bratt, his season so far, and what’s to come this season.