Any combination of nine points gained by the New Jersey Devils or lost by the teams chasing them will see the team return to the playoffs. Today we talk about why the return matters and how they might get said points.
Nine points. As of this writing, nine points separates the New Jersey Devils from returning to postseason action after a disappointing miss last year.
After a pair of strong showings against the Minnesota Wild, the Devils seem to have found some of their game, even with Jack Hughes, Dougie Hamilton and Jonas Siegenthaler all still sidelined. Now they find themselves with some time to rest and prepare for a final push to close at the season. While they’re idle, the teams around them could potentially shrink the Devils’ magic number for them. So who’s still chasing? Why is the number nine? Let’s dive into all of that, and why a playoff return would matter.
The Chasers and Some Math
If we are solely looking at the third playoff berth in the Metropolitan Division that the Devils currently occupy, four of the other seven Metro teams no longer factor into that race. The Washington Capitals and Carolina Hurricanes are above the Devils in the standings and both have already punched their tickets to the playoffs. On the opposite side, both the Pittsburgh Penguins and Philadelphia Flyers may not be mathematically eliminated from playoff contention, but they can’t jump the Devils. Pittsburgh winning out their schedule would see them with 85 points, and the Second Rate Rivals could finish with a max of 83. Not only are they not threats to the Devils, but their seasons are on life support with four other teams out of the postseason ahead of them.
The next furthest out is the New York Islanders, who currently have 74 points, and if they won out, would finish with 90. On a four game losing streak, and with a few tough games left (they have to play Washington twice still), the Islanders probably don’t jump the Devils either. Even if they won their next five, the Devils could create the separation needed by beating them in any form when they play on April 13th. Hopefully the Devils will already have clinched by then.
The two teams who are within real striking distance present different problems in terms of math; they are the Columbus Blue Jackets and Our Hated Rivals. Columbus has the most games remaining and are the team that currently had the Devils number at nine. If the Jackets went on a tear and rattled off nine straight to end the season, they would finish with 95 points. They’re the reason the Devils need nine more, as in case of a points tie, we would go to the tiebreakers. New Jersey could theoretically qualify with 95 points as well, both as the third seed or as a wildcard. Because of the wildcard spot, for a moment here, we also need to consider one non-Metro team in the Montreal Canadiens: if Montreal and Columbus also both finished with 95 points, the Devils would have to possibly win two tiebreakers. As we can’t calculate the first tiebreaker (superior points percentage) until all of the games are played, nine just gets set as the safer number to push for. If the Devils and Jackets (and even the Canadiens) finished with identical points percentages, the Devils own the second tiebreaker of more regulation wins. Montreal and Columbus both cannot overtake the Devils for this tiebreaker.
Our Hated Rivals, however, can. Only three regulation wins separate us from them at the moment, but OHR winning out would only see them with 93 points, as they’ve played two more games than the Blue Jackets. Seven points gets the Devils clear of them, and remember this is points lost by them and won by us. Their schedule isn’t exactly friendly either, with two games against Tampa Bay, one against Florida and one against Carolina. Yet there’s one other step that could be taken to help push them away: win the game at home against them this Saturday. Beating OHR would not destroy all of their playoff hopes, as they are very much in the thick of the second wild card spot race, but it would deal a huge blow to them trying to take over the third Metro playoff spot. The Devils have enough game remaining to still mathematically eliminate OHR even if Saturday doesn’t go as planned. But let’s just stomp them on Saturday and push them closer to elimination as well!
Why Would a Playoff Return Matter?
You mean aside from satiating a hungry fan base? The implication of the team moving in the correct direction in a season where the Devils shifted away somewhat from their speed focus to add more grit would be important. Fans and players alike always want to feel like they’re getting closer to a championship, and making the playoffs would be an improvement from last season. Additionally, it would probably be a big morale boost to the group of players, not only because of successfully completing step one, but also because they made it to the postseason without their top center and a pair of important defensemen.
Regardless of how far the Devils go this season, they will have the ability to add to the group they have. The salary cap is projected to go up, and the only free agents of consequence are Luke Hughes (RFA), Cody Glass (RFA), and Jake Allen, with the last one being the only useful piece the Devils might let go of this summer. There will be money both from the increase and from lesser pieces let go to add more. A playoff run would strengthen the notion of the team moving in a positive direction, which could also help them to entice a few free agent forwards to bring aboard some more supplemental scoring.
Get the Points
With six games and 12 possible points remaining, the Devils should be able to pick up nine of the points without needing help of chasing teams losing. It would be nice, but considering the remaining schedule is OHR, Boston, Pittsburgh, the Islanders, Boston again (the only road game) and Detroit, the Devils need to take care of business themselves. Don’t leave it in the hands of the other teams; go out, beat the teams that they should be beating, and see how much noise can be made in the playoffs.
Your Take
What are your thoughts now on the Devils push for the postseason; how do you think the stretch run of the season plays out? Is there any team trailing the Devils that worries you? When do you think the Devils clinch a postseason spot? Leave any and all comments below and thanks as always for reading!