We are back with some more Devils TAKES!
It’s the holiday season, and I realized that I missed doing “Moore-On or Moron” at around the 25% mark of the season a couple weeks back. Shame on me, as other priorities and interests have popped up, but better late than never, as they say.
The premise of “Moore-On or Moron” is pretty simple. I am known for outstanding takes. Almost all of them are good. Some of them might be half-baked or a little too ahead of the curve or perhaps just really dumb, as they can’t all be winners. I come up with some Devils-related takes and we dive a little deeper to determine whether I am spot on with my assessment (Moore-On) or if I might be being an idiot (Moron).
Let’s get into it.
The Devils third defensive pairing should be Brenden Dillon and Dougie Hamilton
It’s not really that complicated.
Dougie Hamilton might be the highest paid player on the Devils and Brenden Dillon might be one of the Devils free agent acquisitions this offseason on the blueline. The one constant we’ve seen this season when Sheldon Keefe has filled out his lineup card has a top pairing of Dillon-Hamilton.
In actuality though, the debate should be whether or not the Devils top defensive pairing is actually Jonas Siegenthaler-Johnathan Kovacevic, or Luke Hughes-Brett Pesce.
Of all defensive pairings with 350 minutes together, the Siegenthaler-Kovacevic pairing is 1st in the NHL in xGoals against with 11.3. They’re first in xGoals against/60 with 1.61. And yet, the Hughes-Pesce pairing has been slightly better in just under 300 minutes together, with 11.0 xGoals against.
On the other side of the coin, of all pairings with 200 minutes together, the Dillon-Hamilton pairing is 4th worst in the league with 17.5 xGoals against.
In fairness to Sheldon Keefe, he seems to have recognized which defensive pairings he can lean on and has adjusted the playing time accordingly. Brett Pesce leads all defensemen in time on ice with 21:02, followed by Hamilton at 20:34, and Brenden Dillon is taking up the rear with 18:23. The distribution of playing time has been balanced, and Hamilton has more than made up for any cut in 5v5 time with his role on the Devils top PP unit.
Still, I think it would make sense for the Devils to lean more heavily on their top two defensive units, particularly once the stakes are raised in these games and good defensive play will be even more important. And while I would never expect Hamilton to all of a sudden have his playing time be cut to the point where he’s a sheltered third pairing guy, I think it makes sense to see less of him in situations where the Devils are protecting a lead.
Verdict: Moore-On
The Devils should consider trading Dougie Hamilton this summer
We know that Hamilton can be a bit of an adventure in his own end defensively. We also know the Devils didn’t pay him $9M AAV a few years ago in free agency because of his defensive acumen. They paid him to be a top pairing, minutes-eating, offensive stud who also happens to be a RHD. With 141 points in 194 games in New Jersey, Hamilton has lived up to his end of the bargain.
But the Devils blueline is also in a different place than it was three and a half years ago when Hamilton said yes and put pen to paper on a long-term deal to come to New Jersey. And I do think it needs to be mentioned that he picked going to the Devils when they were at about as low a point in their franchise as they could possibly be. It needs to be mentioned that he’s been a positive influence in the room and is a vibes guy. That should be understated with what I’m about to say next.
Brett Pesce has since come aboard as the go-to top defensive defensemen on the roster. Johnathan Kovacevic is building a strong case for not only why he shouldn’t come out of the lineup, but why he might deserve a contract extension of his own. The RHD pipeline is deep enough where former 2nd overall draft pick Simon Nemec is in Utica for the time being, nevermind trying to find a way to shoehorn Seamus Casey into the equation. The Devils are in a spot they can let both Nemec and Casey overcook in the minor leagues, which in and of itself isn’t necessarily a bad thing.
Hamilton has three years remaining on his deal after this season, and while he has a full NMC, he will also have a 10-team trade list that kicks in starting next season. He also has a massive $9M AAV, and while the Devils aren’t nearly as cap strapped as they might appear to be on the surface, one could surmise that trading Hamilton and freeing up his $9M to be reallocated elsewhere on the roster might make sense given the Devils organizational depth at RHD and their apparent needs elsewhere.
I think all of these arguments have merit, but I also think this argument requires one to take a pretty big leap of faith, both in Nemec taking that next step where he’s a no-doubt about it NHL regular moving forward and in Kovacevic a) staying and b) continuing to play well in his role.
Nemec is in Utica because he hasn’t been able to do that and he hasn’t been able to take Kovacevic’s spot (let alone Pesce or Hamilton, which wasn’t realistic given the financial commitment the Devils made to both of them).
Kovacevic has certainly been a pleasant surprise playing as well as he has next to Siegenthaler. And perhaps he is an unearthed gem and the Devils took advantage of a Montreal team that wanted to open a spot for some of their younger defensemen. But he also wouldn’t be the first player to be a flash in the pan, and he will be due a raise himself. Kovacevic is a great value right now at league minimum, but will the same be said once he’s making somewhere between $3-$4M AAV?
Those concerns aside, they do have to be weighed against Hamilton, who will be 32 this summer. Players don’t typically get better as they get older and we’re already seeing the warts in Hamilton’s game now. He’s also had two of the first three years in New Jersey cut short due to major injuries.
I’m not saying the Devils definitely should trade Hamilton this summer, as I do think there’s some risk involved. And I’m not saying that I even care so much about the return. To me, the return is getting $9M in cap space, first and foremost, and then there’s the return itself. But I do think if he makes it through the season healthy and is still productive offensively, they should at least consider it when they go through the next steps of, hopefully, putting the final touches on a championship-caliber roster.
Verdict: Moore-On in that they should at least consider the idea, Moron in that they probably won’t actually do it
Dawson Mercer’s development might have plateaued
Entering his fourth full NHL season and with a newly signed contract worth $4M AAV, I think there was probably some hope amongst Devils fans that Dawson Mercer would continue to take a few steps forward in his development. Particularly after coming off a bit of a down year last year where his point total dipped to 33, a drop off of 23 points from the previous season.
At 30 games in, Mercer has mostly been fine with 6 points and 8 assists while fluctuating between the Hischier and Haula lines. He’s been a big part of the Devils penalty kill as well.
Still, at 23 years old, Mercer is right around that age where you kind of hope he’d show signs that he’s going to take a leap and more consistently be an offensive force like he did two years ago. To make a comparison to another player on the Devils roster, Jesper Bratt was right around the same age when he began showing signs that he was just about ready to explode offensively. Bratt wound up doing that with a 73 points in 76 games campaign in his age 23 season and he hasn’t really looked back since.
Now obviously, Bratt and Mercer are different players with different skillsets. And maybe it’s not fair to paint with such a broad brush and assume just because one young player explodes in his age 23 season means another will as well. Mercer might be more of a middle of the lineup, workman-like, grinder type of player than the pure speed/skill finesse combo that Bratt is and that’s fine if that is what Mercer ultimately is as a player.
Mercer could probably stand to take a lesson from Stefan Noesen’s playbook and get to the netfront more to make things happen, as I think he has a similar enough frame to play that way. But I don’t know that I agree with any notion that his development as a player might have plateaued, and I think he has enough hockey IQ and hockey sense to continue to evolve as a player going forward.
Verdict: Moron
The recent trend of slow starts is a cause for concern
One of the many issues that plagued the Devils a season ago was their inability to start on time.
In their last eleven games (including the Toronto game last night), the Devils had surrendered the first goal in nine of them.
It’s certainly unfortunate and not ideal, but I think a deeper look at the goals in question would show that they’re probably more of the “well, that’ll happen” variety than an issue with the team starting on time.
A Nick Paul goal through a mass of bodies and where Erik Haula and the player he’s tied up with partially screening Jacob Markstrom. That’ll happen. A similar goal also happened the next game against Carolina into a bigger mass of bodies and the rebound went to Jack Roslovic who buried it. That’ll happen as well.
That’s not to say all of those specific goals are good. I still have no idea how this Matt Roy knuckleball didn’t get stopped by Jake Allen. Markstrom has been on the receiving end of some weird sharp angle goals that have inexplicably gone in. And the Robert Thomas goal 9 seconds in before anyone has a chance to take their seat is a prime example of not being ready to play at the drop of the puck, which is a critique and criticism that last year’s team absolutely earned.
But I also think a large part of the issue with last year’s team wasn’t just that they surrendered the first goal. It was that they often showed little fight and little pushback, and the goaltending was bad enough where once that first goal went in, there was a sense of “Here we go again”. I don’t think that’s the case this year. And I think the fact that the Devils have fought back to go 5-4 in those games where they surrendered the first goal is another indicator how this year’s team is different from last year’s team.
So yes, it’s not ideal that the “1-0, them” meme has resurfaced. But I don’t think its indicative of a larger problem at whole when it comes to starting on time. The Devils started on time against the Avalanche as the Jack Hughes line was flying early in that game. They lost 4-0. Nashville scored a fluky goal to go up 1-0. The Devils scored the next four goals and won that game convincingly. The Devils fell behind 2-0 to Detroit. They led 4-3 after two periods and did enough in the third period to salt the game away and secure the win.
Yes, they’ve given up the first goal a bunch recently, but someone has to score first and its a 50-50% proposition whether it will be the Devils or their opponent. For now anyways, its not a cause for concern.
Verdict: Moron
The Devils Got It Right Naming Jacques Lemaire To The Ring of Honor
The Devils announced earlier this week that Jacques Lemaire, the winningest coach in franchise history and the man who was behind the bench when the Devils won their first Stanley Cup in 1995, would be the newest inductee into the Ring of Honor. He will receive that honor on January 22, 2025.
Lemaire is one of the most important figures in Devils history, and he was a no-brainer to receive this honor. And while I personally believe that Lou Lamoriello should be at the top of the list, I can also understand that there’s probably some behind the scenes reasoning as to why Lamoriello hasn’t received that honor yet (mainly, him being the general manager of another NHL team)
Upon reflecting on what I wrote a year ago though, I think quibbling about the order is probably doing a disservice to the accomplishments of the candidates. Lemaire is as worthy of this honor as Lamoriello is. They’re as worthy of this honor as Doc Emrick and Chico Resch are. They’re as worthy of this honor as Sergei Brylin and the many Devils players throughout the years where, just because their number might never be retired by the franchise, doesn’t mean they didn’t make a significant impact during their time here. It would be very easy for the Devils to name someone, whether it was Lemaire, Larry Robinson, Pat Burns, John MacLean, Bruce Driver, or about two dozen other former players and notable people where I would sit back and say “You know what, great choice. No-brainer. Totally deserves it.” And Lemaire certainly deserves it, as he is the standard to which all of the Devils coaches who have since followed him should strive to achieve and be.
Verdict: Moore-On
(none of the stats referenced in this article include the 12/10 game vs. Toronto)