Back on December 20, the New Jersey Devils were winning games and scoring a lot except for those 7 times the other team’s goalies frustrated them to a loss. Since then, it has only happened to the Devils once. Technically. This post also includes how often the Devils have goalied the other team this season so far.
Over two months ago, I wrote about how often the 2024-25 New Jersey Devils were getting goalied. The answer then was 7 times in 35 games. The New Jersey Devils were also lighting up teams plenty when they were not getting goalied. The result was that they were 21-11-3 with the fifth most goals scored in all situations, 115, despite the number of times they were shut out and shut down by the opposition goaltender. While December 20 does not seem to be that long ago, the New Jersey Devils did play twenty-three games since then. They suffered a slump and their record since then has been a less-impressive 10-10-3. Have they been getting goalied over that stretch? And, how often have the Devils goaltenders did it to the other team? Let us revisit the topic today and answer those questions.
The answer to the first question is surprising. The Devils have been goalied exactly one time since the previous post on December 20. It was also the only time they have been shut out since that post and since Christmas: the 0-3 loss in Los Angeles on New Year’s Day. The Devils’ offense attempted shots that totaled 3.86 expected goals. None went past Darcy Kuemper that counted. There was a goal by Timo Meier that was taken off the board due to a phantom goaltender interference ruling on Stefan Noesen from the experts in Toronto. Credit to Jackson’s recap for reminding me of that afternoon’s controversy. Not that losing 1-3 is much better than 0-3 but it does look better than a shut out. Or getting goalied.
Natural Stat Trick
Since then, it technically has not happened since. It came real close last night, though. In the Devils’ 2-4 loss to Dallas, Casey DeSmith denied many of the scoring chance attempts that were on target (36). Most notably and frustratingly against Timo Meier and Ondrej Palat (and in my opinion, one gift-wrapped PP attempt at the left post for Stefan Noesen). The Devils generated 3.97 expected goals from their attempts. The Big Deal scoring two meant that this game fell just short of the -2 difference I use for getting goalied or not. Even if you want to bend the rules and include that game, that still makes it just two times since December 20. That is still a low number since that last post.
That is because the Devils have had plenty of games since December 20 where the offense was lackluster. The data at Natural Stat Trick backs this up. The team’s shooting percentage was below the league median in all situations since December 20 at 9.9%. It was 10.81% before then. Up until December 20, the Devils led the league in expected goals per 60 with 3.59 with a shots-for rate above 30 (30.28). From December 20 until last night’s game, the expected goals rate dropped to 3.09 and the team took 26.2 shots per 60 minutes. Fewer shots, less danger, and a lower shooting percentage all equal fewer goals. The Devils did not beat any goalies badly to score more than two actual goals above expected. That is no surprise. Yet, what is the fact that no opposition goaltender kept the Devils to two goals fewer or less than expected in a game except for Kuemper. Which should have a giant asterisk on it given the review where people in Toronto found an goaltender interference that arguably did not exist.
What this ultimately means is that I think the key for the Devils to get more points on the board and in the standings is to attack more. Take more shots. Take more attempts. Drive for more carry-ins and pass-ins on zone entries. If the Devils want to make a change to their roster, then they need at least one more scorer. An actual one like Jared McCann, not Scott Laughton or Jake Evans or Ryan Donato. The Devils’ offense cannot just be a two-line effort with a bottom-six dumping-and-chasing shifts away with inconsistent-at-best attacks on most nights. There are signs of hope. The Devils went into the 4 Nations Face-Off Break scoring at least three goals in five of their previous eight games. They did not light any goalies up by out-scoring Natural Stat Trick’s expected goal model in those games. The goals came in games where they generated plenty of danger with their attempts. To me, the efforts have to be there as opposed of hoping they go on a hot streak in terms of shooting percentage. That is something tangible they can build on. More is needed, of course.
That all said, the truth is that the Devils have not been getting goalied all that much since the previous post. That is a positive but it does not matter much in the facts that they have also not scored as much or, more importantly, won as much. Let us consider the other side of this topic that I did not do on December 20. How often have the Devils goalied the other team?
The method is pretty much the same except it is from the opposition’s perspective. How many times have the Devils goaltenders kept the opposition from scoring two goals or less than expected in all situations? Credit to Jacob Markstrom, Jake Allen, and, yes, goaltending coach Dave Rogalski for this. They have done it nine (9) times – and twice since December 20. Here is the full list for the season.
Natural Stat Trick
Aside: The Devils lit up the Caps goalie and got lit up themselves on November 30 in the 5-6 loss. It was not a good night for the goalies. The Devils got lit up and goalied in the December 8 game against Colorado. Remember that now since the Devils go to Colorado on Wednesday.
It should be no shock that most of the Devils’ shutout wins fit into this category. The shutouts against Utah, Vancouver, Edmonton, Our Hated Rivals, and Montreal all qualified. The 4-0 win over Montreal on February 8 by Jake Allen is arguably the best goaltending performance of the season to date. He let in nothing in the face of 3.89 expected goals from Montreal’s attempts. The 3-0 win over Pittsburgh on December 21 did not qualify. Sorry, Penguins, but they generated a mere 1.86 expected goals in that one. There were some impressive goaltending performances in a few 1-goal allowed wins. Such as the season opener in Prague against Buffalo, the first win over Florida in November, and the crushing of Our Hated Rivals on December 2.
For what it is worth, the split of these games where the Devils goalied the other team is close to even for Allen and Markstrom. Markstrom did it five times and Allen did it four times, including the two times since the previous post on Decemebr 20.
Also as impressive are the few times the Devils goaltending got lit up by giving up more than two goals more than expected. I highlighted those instances in blue. That did happen twice against the Capitals; each in the 5-6 losses against them. It also happened in Detroit in October, that infamous eight-goal loss to Tampa Bay in October (worst of the season, in fact), and when the Avalanche came to Newark to shutout the Devils on December 8. Like with the Devils goalie-ing the other team, the split between Allen and Markstrom is close to even: three times for Allen and twice for Markstrom.
Since that 0-4 loss to the Avs, the Devils goaltending has been rather good from this metric. It has not happened in the last 28 games. The closest it did was when Jacob Markstrom conceded four goals in Toronto on January 16 against 2.39 expected; but that was a game that required overtime and the Devils still nearly pulled it out. It also edged out the disappointing January 27 game by Jake Allen in Philadelphia. Still: just five times all season and no instances in over two months is impressive. Again, credit to Markstrom, Allen, and, yes, even Dave Rogalski.
Obviously, this will be worth revisiting one more time once the season is over. Hopefully, I can write that the Devils have A) scored more goals since this post, B) won more games since this post, and C) not been goalied all that often along the way. Could it happen? Of course. Will it happen? It might. As it would on the other side where Allen or Markstrom are on fire for the evening to the frustration of the Devils’ opponents. Could that happen again? Of course. Will it happen? It might. In the meantime, let me know what you think about the concept, the metric, the results of it since December 20, and the number of times the Devils goalied the other team this season. Thank you for reading.