Dawson Mercer has followed up a disappointing 2023-24 campaign with a 2024-25 season that has been marginally better. Mercer has been awful for the most of the last 10 games. His game in Chicago was good though and it is a jumping off point for how Mercer may get his game right ahead of the playoffs.
On Wednesday night, Dawson Mercer of the 2024-25 New Jersey Devils had a Good Game. He created a goal by taking a puck to the net shortly as the team’s first power play began in the first period. The puck was pushed in and he was given credit for the goal. (This was changed in game to Timo Meier and then reversed after the game.) Mercer would definitively score himself with a power play goal in the second period. An absolute banger off the left post and in to make it 4-2. It would be held up as the game winning goal. It was also a night that when Mercer took a 5-on-5 shift, the Devils were positive in the run of play at 16-10 in attempts, even in shots at 4-4, and far more dangerous in expected goals at 0.6 to 0.25. Combined with three shots by #91, it was a good night. Not a perfect one given his stick getting lifted by Ryan Donato led in part to the first goal against, but a Good Game overall for #91. This is notable because this young man has not had very many of those this season. Especially in March.
In fact, it could be argued that he needed to have a Good Game in Chicago. If he did not, then we may have to ask a controversial question: Does Dawson Mercer need a night off? After putting up two goals, three shots, and positive numbers in 5-on-5, the answer is absolutely not. Still, it has been a rough, rough time for Dawson Mercer. His play this season and especially since the 2025 NHL Trade Deadline has been less about the dawg in his chest and more akin to dog that does not hunt very much.
The 2024-25 Drop Off or the Continuation of 2023-24
After a 42-point rookie campaign and a 59-point sophomore season with 27 goals, Mercer started off 2023-24 ice cold. He got out of an early slump but he has been producing at about the same level since. While he got to 20 goals last season, he finished with 33 points in 82 games. It seems really likely for Mercer break that this season with 31 points and 9 games left to play. He’s also 3 goals away from 20; that plateau is possible too. Even if he hits those marks, 2024-25 would remain as a drop from his first two seasons. Asking him to get to 42 again may requires Mercer to become one of the hottest hockey players in the NHL. As much as I would love it, I have my doubts about that. Beyond the points, Mercer is shooting at a rate this season very close to last season at roughly 1.65 per game. A drop off from his most productive season where he was just under 2 shots per game. Something Mercer and the Devils would want to sort out for next season.
The thing about Mercer is that while he may not be a play driver, he is a cerebral enough player to be a contributor in various situations. That is why you see him get power play and penalty kill time, especially now with the injury to The Big Deal and the rest of the roster outside of the core being what they are. Still, the on-ice rates at 5-on-5 are telling as to what the team does when Mercer takes a shift. Like his production, his best season was two seasons ago and what he has done since is not that close. This season, similar to the team overall, just has less offense happening when he’s out there compared with even last season. While the Devils may not be getting wrecked when he is out there, he is not exactly helping the cause. Not the worst on its own. On a team that badly needs secondary scoring and offensive contributions from forwards, it is not helpful. You would expect more from Mercer but he has not provided.
This has been most apparent since the 2025 NHL Trade Deadline. Conveniently 10 games ago for the New Jersey Devils after Wednesday’s win.
Mercer’s No Good, Very Bad, Almost All Horrible Last 10 Games
Thanks to Natural Stat Trick, we can look at a player’s on-ice stats over a certain number of games as opposed to a date. The Devils have played 10 games since March 7, 2025. On that date, before getting whacked by Winnipeg, GM Soft Tom Fitzgerald sold his moves in a post-deadline press conference as creating competition. To the GM’s credit, that has actually happened as many Devils have been scratched for a game or games based on performance. Only 9 Devils have avoided this fate, including the team ironman Dawson Mercer.
The play of Mercer over those 10 games, hoo boy, it has been hideous.
- 5-on-5 Situations: 1 goal, 0 assists, 9 shots, 23 attempts (11.05 per 60 minutes), 13 scoring chance attempts, 5 high danger attempts
- All Situations: 4 goals, 1 assist, 16 shots, 35 attempts (12 per 60 minutes), 23 scoring chance attempts, 12 high danger attempts
- Players with more points than Mercer in this timeframe: Jesper Bratt, Luke Hughes, Nico Hischier, Timo Meier, Cody Glass, Erik Haula
- Players with a higher rate of shot attempts than Mercer in this time frame: Meier, Daniel Sprong, Bratt, Hischier, Justin Dowling, Haula, Paul Cotter
The players in bold italics are players who have been scratched or held out of a game for one reason or another over the last 10 games. We can expect Bratt and Hischier to out-produce Mercer. Seeing Haula’s name was a bit shocking. More so when it came to the rate of just attempting shots. The small samples of Sprong and even Justin Dowling had higher rates than Mercer with Haula and hit machine Paul Cotter also firing away more. Also, keep in mind that Mercer’s sick assist to Timo Meier for a PPG against Vancouver plus his two points against Chicago happened after a six-game pointless streak. His prior points before the pointless streak: a consolation goal against Winnipeg and a goal against Philly.
- Corsi (Shot Attempts): 44.2 CF/60, 65.34 CA/60, 40.35 CF% – Devils with a worse CF% in this timeframe: Ondrej Palat, Kurtis MacDermid, Simon Nemec
- Shots: 17.78 SF/60, 30.75 SA/60, 36.63 SF% – Devils with a worse SF% in this timeframe: Palat, Nemec, Curtis Lazar
- Scoring Chances: 24.5 SCF/60, 28.83 SCA/60, 45.95 SCF% – Devils with a worse SCF% in this timeframe: MacDermid, Nolan Foote, Nemec, Nathan Bastian, Dennis Cholowski, Lazar, Palat, Brenden Dillon
- High Danger Scoring Chances: 6.25 HDCF/60, 10.57 HDCA/60, 37.14% HDCF% – Devils with a worse HDCF% in this timeframe: MacDermid, Foote, Palat, Sprong, Luke Hughes
- Expected Goals: 1.82 xGF/60, 2.77 xGA/60, 39.71 xGF% – Devils with a worst xGF% in this timeframe: Palat, MacDermid, Nemec, Cholowski, Lazar
- Actual Goals: 0.96 GF/60, 2.88 GA/60, 25% GF% – Devils with a worse GF% in this timeframe: Cholowski, Dowling, MacDermid, Nemec, Palat, Lazar
Mercer’s on-ice rates in 5-on-5 play have been absolutely terrible since March 7. Percentages in the 35-45% range are generally quite bad and would cause most teams to wonder what is going on. Mercer’s last 10 games – which includes the Good Game in Chicago! – have seen him play a whole lot of defense and not nearly enough offense to make it worthwhile. To put it more bluntly: The Devils have getting caved in a lot with Mercer on the ice.
I continued the bold italics to make a different point. Mercer’s performances have been so poor that they have not been much better than guys who have been entering in and out of the lineup. And I am even including the one game of the team’s most useless player, two games of a Nolan Foote callup that has gone nowhere and stayed there, and two deadline acquisitions in Sprong and Cholowski that have been yo-yo’ed out of the lineup. Mercer has numbers close to players that Sheldon Keefe is taking out of the lineup for performance-based reasons. Yes, Mercer has been that bad in the run of play in 5-on-5. If it was not for his night in Chicago, it would really beg the question of whether Mercer needed a night off to re-collect himself.
What about special teams? The power play has worked well with Mercer on it based on the on-ice rates. He led the team in on-ice CF/60 and SF/60 in power play situations and leads the regulations in both xGF/60 and actual GF/60. That may be more of a function of playing with Hischier, Bratt, and Meier on the primary power play unit. That he contributed to two PPGs against Chicago is recent evidence of that decision working out. A positive for Mercer.
The penalty kill, well, not at all. Mercer’s on-ice rate of an 109.55 CA/60 and an xGA/60 of 10.15 – both among the worst for the Devils – are really rough even if his on-ice SA/60 rate is quite good at 36.52. While other Devils have seen a higher rate of goals against, a rate of 9.13 GA/60 is not something that one would associate with “doing well in shorthanded situations.” This is not a positive for Mercer.
Overall, Mercer has been really bad and something needs to be figured out with him. The best shot of hope is that Wednesday’s win in Chicago may be the start of that figuring out process.
What to do With Mercer in the Final 9 Games
Once again, do not expect Mercer to be scratched. The team’s ironman is not likely to be scratched at all. Especially after the team’s last game. Provided he stays healthy, he will continue to play. With The Big Deal out of the lineup and the Devils forwards bereft of talent outside of Bratt, Hischier, and Meier, it would take something serious for #91 to be in a suit instead of a Devils jersey. We know Mercer has been really bad on the ice for the last 10 games. His production was sparse up until this week. What can the Devils do to make the best of the Mercer situation?
Fortunately, Dawson Mercer did have a Good Game against Chicago. Yes, Chicago has nothing to play for and their defensive play is the definition of spotty. Still, Mercer was mired in a production slump and just struggling. The best thing for his confidence was to have a game where he would get results for himself and the team. He had that. Even more: he got those results from taking a puck to the net and firing at will when opportunity presented itself.
Sheldon Keefe and his staff need to start there. They need to hammer it into Mercer’s (and Bratt’s, and honestly any Devil outside of Meier) head to just fire away more often. Mercer’s shot is not bad or lacking in velocity. Mercer’s power play goal on Knight showed how quick it can be. He needs to use that more often. He needs to get into the spaces as a second or third forward and rip it if he is in space. Likewise, driving to the net is a viable play for #91. He may not be strong like Meier but the effort alone would be enough to make something dangerous happen offensively. It led to a goal against Chicago. Mercer has the hands and the speed to dart in close not unlike how Bratt does it. If he needs a green light from the staff to do it, then Keefe & Co., give this man the green light! The status quo was not working.
What was also working was Mercer’s line against Chicago. Mercer is not a play driver. You know who is? Jesper Bratt. Those two plus Haula were together for over 11 minutes. The line was a good offensive unit against the Blackhawks. I would strongly suggest keeping them together or at least keeping Mercer with Bratt. Bratt can be the one to lead a zone entry and Mercer is smart enough to know where he needs to go in support. Mercer is also smart enough to get back and support on defense, which could free up Bratt a bit more provided the opportunity is there. With games against Winnipeg and Minnesota coming up, it may not go nearly as well. But it is something to try rather than throwing Mercer into the line blender and expecting him to stand out.
I would also suggest lightening up Mercer’s role on the PK. Mercer has been in shorthanded situations in the past. But it may be time to move him to a secondary unit instead of a primary one. He may not be at his best averaging two shorthanded minutes per game next to Hischier. While rotating other forwards may limit Keefe’s and Ryan McGill’s options, giving more time to Haula or Bratt or even Cody Glass may lighten Mercer’s load and help the PK units overall. The power play results are fine with where Mercer is. I would not touch that. Just the penalty kill.
And I would finally add that Keefe has to read the game carefully for Mercer and others. Right or wrong, the NHL knows no game is really over with a two goal deficit late. Especially against the Devils. This means in 5-on-6 situations or defensive situations with the other team pressing, Keefe has to ensure the guys he’s putting out there are both fresh and capable. Mercer has been real awful in most of the last 10 games and yet he was in this high-pressure situations. I get that, on paper, you would want Mercer out there over, say Nathan Bastian. But when the on-ice play is worse with Mercer than even Bastian, you have to make the difficult call. Because if or when those high pressure situations go awry for the Devils, the confidence takes a hit and Mercer and others also trying to get their game right absolutely does not need that. If a matchup is not working or a performance is going pear-shaped, then cut the minutes instead of hoping the player figures it out.
Your Take
In summation: I would tell Mercer he can shoot, he can take the puck to the net, he can take fewer high-pressure shifts, and ride with Bratt until it ceases to work. I would remind him he is quite capable as he showed against Chicago. Take that confidence into other games.
Now, will all of this necessarily work? Maybe. I hope. It is worth trying. Mercer and the Devils would almost have to try to be even worse than he has been since March 7. Trying to emphasize what worked in this win over Chicago could go a long way to keep Mercer from sliding into the postseason and the Devils from being worse off with #91 on the ice instead off of it.
Given you now know what I think, I want to know what you think. What do you make of Mercer’s season so far? Or his last 10 games? Did you know they were that bad? What would you want Mercer to do to play better, more like he did against Chicago than not? Please leave your answers and other thoughts about Mercer in the comments. Thank you for reading.