While there was hope after the Prague series that the Casey-Nemec pairing would be viable, this has not been the case over the past couple of games.
One of the best things about the New Jersey Devils having a good team at the start of this season is that they do not have to worry about getting the most out of inexperienced players. One such player who was relied on for big-time minutes last season was Simon Nemec, the team’s former second overall pick who surprised many when he not only jumped to the NHL at just 19 years old last season, but excelled early and often.
This season has begun much more favorably for the team, but not so much for the young Slovakian defenseman. With Dougie Hamilton and Johnny Kovacevic forming the top four on the right side, Nemec has been forced to play on the third pairing with 20-year old Seamus Casey, another right-handed defenseman who only made the team this year because of the injuries suffered by Luke Hughes and Brett Pesce. Without those injuries, opportunities for minutes would be even slighter for Nemec — but he has found himself behind Kovacevic on the depth chart for the time being.
Using Natural Stat Trick’s data going back to last year, I compiled how Nemec has performed in a variety of pairings. While it was Luke Hughes’s pairing with Brenden Smith last year that drew wide attention for its misfortune, it was actually not the only pairing involving a young Devils defenseman that went completely sideways. Nemec also had a pairing with John Marino, who the team will face today, which suffered immensely on the scoreboard.
Natural Stat Trick
What was frustrating there was how much better their expected statistics were than the actual results. Some of this has to do with positional issues. If a guy is used to defending one side, and suddenly he’s always on his off-hand, he might miss more plays than he might have on his strong side. When it came to Marino and Nemec — two players who had a lot of trouble preventing passes from making it to and through the crease and slot area last year — their weaknesses compounded in the defensive zone and created more difficult situations for the team’s goaltenders to handle.
That is not what is happening this season. Rather than having decent underlying numbers and an actual performance record that is deep in a crater beneath those, Nemec is putting up terrible on-ice underlying numbers while surviving on the scoresheet.
What does this mean? Is Nemec lucky to not see more goals against this year? Or is he playing the game differently than he had been? Since Nemec has mostly stayed on the right side with Casey on the left, Nemec should feel like he is in familiar space. But perhaps, having a righty to his left means that he is not making the same passing plays, or he is deferring to Casey’s raw skill in the offensive zone. Also, any alterations the coaches have made to his approach in the effort to improve his weak areas may be affecting his creativity.
The truth is that Nemec was very good at creating chances at five-on-five last season, and he is not this year. I saw hints of the Nemec who goes down to the goal line and attacks from different angles in the game against Washington, but he is still not at the same level as last year. Instead of always being a factor in the offensive zone, Nemec has only been visible a handful of times.
For the time being, it looks like Nemec will stay with Casey, as the top four has been rolling with efficiency to start the season. I think this is a good thing. If the Devils want to keep all of their defensive core together, they are going to need defensemen who shoot on the same side to mesh together. And even if it seems like I am down on Nemec, at his age, he has all the time in the world to figure this sort of thing out.
Having a good team around him just gives him even more time.
Your Thoughts
What do you think about Nemec’s beginning to the season? How much do you think he will improve with righty partners over the course of the season? Leave your thoughts in the comments below, and thanks for reading.