The New Jersey Devils have played just three games in an 82-game season. Yet, it is clear that the pairing of Simon Nemec and Seamus Casey is not working out. This post shows what that looks like and discusses the challenges in making changes to this pairing.
The New Jersey Devils just played their third hockey game of the 82-game regular season for 2024-25. They did not win it. It was their first in Newark and it was a disappointing 2-4 loss to Toronto. The loss did follow two wins against Buffalo in Prague. With 79 games left to play, it is surely far too early to make any grand statements about whether the New Jersey Devils are Great, Good, Mediocre, Bad, or Awful. It is also far too early to make any statements as to which Devils are going to have Good or Bad seasons. The reason for both and other such analyses is the same: the Devils just played three games.
However, it is not necessarily too early to make any changes with how the Devils perform in those games. I am heartened that the concept of a “sample size” has taken hold with the People Who Matter. Yet, we have the luxury of waiting for more games and more data before making any conclusions and, therefore, making any demands or wishes of what we want the Devils to do. We can wait for 10 games or a month or whatever length of time you think is best. A hockey team’s coaching staff does not have this luxury. Part of the job of Sheldon Keefe and his staff is to recognize when things are not working out well and making changes before it causes further damage to the larger cause of winning games.
How this is done may be more of an art than a science. A coach (and even the front office) usually would make decisions about their roster based on performances, health and availability, opponent match-ups and other factors. We can measure some of that performance through on-ice data. From my standpoint, finding really poor results (or really good results in the inverse) can be a great place to start looking at some changes. A great example of that would be the defensive pairing of Seamus Casey and Simon Nemec.
How The Pairing Came to Be
There are a couple of reasons why Seamus Casey and Simon Nemec are together right now. The first is due to injuries to other defensemen. Brett Pesce is still recovering from a fractured fibula and Luke Hughes is recovering from a shoulder injury. Both missed camp and only recently are both skating with the Devils. This meant there were spots open on the blueline. After training camp and preseason games, Keefe and his staff chose Johnathan Kovacevic and Seamus Casey over other options like Nick DeSimone, Colton White, and Jakub Zboril (on a try out). An option list cut further when Santeri Hatakka hurt his shoulder, enough to require surgery, in their preseason game in Montreal. Nemec did get injured in an Olympic qualifying game for Slovakia back at the end of August, but was healthy to play in camp.
The second is by other decisions on the blueline. In the few preseason games played before the team went to Prague, the staff focused on two pairings: Kovacevic with Jonas Siegenthaler and Dougie Hamilton and Brenden Dillon. Those two pairings were the only combinations to play over 40 minutes of 5-on-5 ice time together for the Devils according to Natural Stat Trick. They also did relatively well in preseason despite the Devils losing all of their games before the trip to Prague. Keefe and his staff maintained those two pairings going into their games against Buffalo.
Combine the two and you get the result of a Casey-Nemec pairing. The team chose Casey and Kovacevic to make the team. With the other two pairing set, the remaining spots were automatic.
How Casey-Nemec Pairing is Performing
It has been just three games against two opponents. It also has been not good at all. Consider their 5-on-5 on-ice stats from Natural Stat Trick in each of their three games so far:
10/04 “at” Buffalo – 10:48 together, 7-16 in Corsi, 2-5 in shots, 0-0 in goals, 0.24-0.79 xGF, 2-6 in scoring chances, 1-4 in high danger scoring chances.
10/05 “vs.” Buffalo – 8:21 together, 4-13 in Corsi, 4-3 in shots, 0-0 in goals, 0.23-0.22 xGF, 3-5 in scoring chances, 0-2 in high danger scoring chances.
10/10 vs. Toronto – 7:04 together, 5-9 in Corsi, 0-7 in shots, 0-1 in goals, 0.15-0.74 xGF, 2-5 in scoring chances, 0-3 in high danger scoring chances.
One saving grace is that the pairing has been on the ice for one goal against over their three games together. It was the awful one from Toronto’s Bobby McMann from just off the half-wall that Jacob Markstrom should have stopped. Even if Casey went in front of him as the shot was in motion. I trust Markstrom understands object permanence.
Important aside: By the way, please check out the NHL Gamecenter of a game for a really cool Goal Simulation that shows all of the players in motion on each goal. The data behind the simulation may be scrape-able in time and that could lead to some potential developments in public hockey analytics.
Anyway, even with not much damage on the scoreboard, the other on-ice stats for the pairing are brutal. The Sabres and Maple Leafs pretty much owned the puck when 24-17 were together in 5-on-5 play as indicated by shooting attempts, or Corsi. While the shot counts were relatively low from Buffalo due to the Sabres’ amazing inaccuracy in Prague, the Maple Leafs were far more effective in making their attempts count. The Devils were also out-chanced. While not by huge numbers but with notable high danger chances either bailed out by Markstrom, Jake Allen, or Lady Luck. It is not so much a question of if opponents will score more against this pairing, but when since they are pinning New Jersey back often when 24-17 takes a shift.
Worse, the Devils’ offense pretty much died in 5-on-5 when Casey and Nemec were together. The team has a combined six shots, 16 attempts, and a combined xGF of just 0.62 over three games. Who are the forwards who have played the most in front of Nemec and Casey? Based on their 5-on-5 teammate data at Natural Stat Trick: The Big Deal, Jesper Bratt, and Timo Meier. Three of the most offensively talented players on the team and in the entire division. Clearly, that approach has not worked. And neither has the pairing.
Why? I think there are a number of reasons. Casey is playing professional hockey for the first time and he is doing so in the toughest, most talented league in the world. He has the talent to play at this level and the potential to be good at it too. But he needs seasoning and his first three NHL games have been eye-openers in that regard. Even if his power play goal was sick. Nemec may be healthy with his apparent upper-body injury in Slovakia behind him. But it is possible that he is still getting into form from it and the shortened preseason likely did not help. He is in his second NHL season and, to a degree, is still figuring things out.
Chem – It’s Not Nothing and You Either Have It or You Don’t
Most of all, I think the two just do not mesh well. I definitely grew up with the golden age of the Devils were the optimal defenseman pairings included one (1) two-way, puck-moving defenseman and one (1) no-nonsense defensive-minded defenseman. This approach still has merit in today’s game although the roles cannot be so stark as the current game benefits all skaters to be good in all three zones as opposed to just one half of the rink. An effective defenseman pairing does not need to fit this exact style as it once did.
However, the data and even pure observation shows that Casey and Nemec are just not on the same page. Opponents have picked on the Devils when they are out there. When the pairing has Meier-Hughes-Bratt in front of them, a dynamite offensive line gets defused. Casey’s lack of experience and Nemec’s relative lack of experience in dealing with that has led to plenty of Devils shifts spent in their own end of the rink. So much so that I do not think this gets better with more shifts and more time. There certainly was no evidence of that across the three games.
Chemistry between teammates does have value. I just do not think it is something that you can just make happen by putting two people together. Anymore than putting two single people together on a blind date will lead to anything significant. Keeping with the dating analogy, there is such a thing as “sparks” or a “vibe” or, to stay current, an “aura.” Basically a kind of feeling where the two feel like the situation is good and worth pursuing. Same with lines and pairings in hockey. It does not take too long to figure out when it just works well. Then a coach can let the line or pairing develop. There has to be a reason to keep it going and good performances can point to that. Casey-Nemec appears to have the opposite. They do not have chemistry together. The sparks are not lit. The vibe is not there. The aura is not giving good hockey performances. Therefore, logic states that this pairing should break up.
Making a Change: Easier Said Than Done
The other two pairings on the Devils have been more effective per Natural Stat Trick’s data in 5-on-5 play. There is not a ton of offense happening for Siegenthaler-Kovacevic but they are allowing about the same or less. Dillon-Hamilton may be an adventure at times and I fear Dillon’s lack of speed is going to put Hamilton/the Devils in an awkward spots. Yet, the Devils have succeeded quite a bit with 5-7 in the run of play. As a whole, the Devils have two functional defensive pairings out of three.
This makes the Casey-Nemec pairing a bit more an issue for Keefe and his staff. We know that Casey-Nemec have struggled. But breaking them up would mean having to change one or both of the other pairings. There is very little evidence as to whether other combinations can work; an issue from the shortened preseason. The stakes are potentially high. As a new pairing could be just as bad or worse, which could cause damage on the scoreboard. Or a new pairing could be awesome, which could lead to some tougher decisions down the road. This is why lineup changes can be more of an art than a science.
Again, the state of the Devils health is a factor. Hatakka certainly is out. Even if Pesce comes back as soon as he can and Luke Hughes is ahead of schedule, both are going to be very rusty. That will be something the Devils have to deal with regardless. I do not think many will mind Casey going down to Utica but it appears that will wait until Pesce or Hughes returns. Until then, he is likely going to be in New Jersey. If the staff did not pick DeSimone to go to Prague, then I doubt they will call him up unless absolutely necessary. To that end, we may not see a pairing change until Pesce is back. When exactly that will be is unclear. The Devils will play five games between tomorrow and the following Saturday. Practices are going to sparse, if held at all.
Are there some possible pairings to change just based on each defenseman’s profile? I think so. I think Dillon’s experience could help settle Casey in and provide a different element on the ice than what Nemec does. Hamilton could be re-united with Siegenthaler to see if Siegenthaler is ready to have the bounce-back season I and many of the People Who Matter want to see him have. Kovacevic and Nemec could play off of each other style-wise. This is more in line with a traditional pairing of one more mobile/offensive defenseman and one not-as-mobile/more defensive defenseman. It is also something to try given that the current state of the blueline is effective for two out of three pairings.
However, should Keefe and his staff not risk those other two pairings, then I would also suggest putting some different forwards in front of Casey-Nemec. On paper, putting the team’s most explosive forwards should help. On the ice, it has not. They have had little time with the Hischier line or even the fourth line in front of them. They may be more salvageable with other forwards. Or it may further confirm that Casey-Nemec is just not working out at this moment in time.
The Larger Point and Your Take
One of the main takeaways of this post is that it is objectively true that the Devils struggle a lot when the Casey-Nemec is on the ice in 5-on-5 play. There is a larger point I want to make about making decisions and sample size.
In a perfect world, we could have the Devils play more games, see Keefe still put Casey-Nemec together, and see if it works out in time. We do not live in a perfect world. While the pairing has not been lit up, all signs are pointing to it about to happen with the amount and rate of attempts, chances, and shots allowed. And it not something the team can really live with since, again, the offense has died when 24-17 have been together. Part of the job of a head coach and their staff is to recognize when things are working well, when they are not, and making changes before things go really wrong. Even with just three games and 25-26 minutes together, we have evidence that this pairing is not performing well. This is for a number of reasons including my belief that the chemistry between the two is just not there.
Of course, fixing that is not so simple. In this case, Keefe would have to split up one or both of his other pairings. Which may create a new problem in trying to fix this one. If he waits until a defenseman returns, then the team risks suffering in the interim. This is also part of the job of a head coach and their staff. And, again, it is a choice he will be making even if it just three games into an 82-game season. As is choosing to wait – which carries its own risk from further poor performances.
While we wait to see what, if anything is done, for the next game in Washington and beyond, I want to know what you think. What do you think of the Casey-Nemec pairing so far? Do you think chemistry is something quickly found out in hockey? If you were Sheldon Keefe, then what would you do? Please leave your answers and other thoughts about the defense and the Devils in the comments. Thank you for reading.