Many of the People Who Matter have pointed out how bad the New Jersey Devils’ bottom two forward lines have been since Christmas. This post shows that they are right in that they are bad and offers some potential solutions.
Last night’s 3-4 overtime loss to Toronto was the tenth game since the New Jersey Devils and the National Hockey League broke for Christmas. The Devils have slumped since returning from Christmas with a record of 3-4-3 over those ten games. It is not the worst in the NHL in that timeframe, but it is not that good either. The People Who Matter are unhappy with several of the team’s performances over those ten games. They are right to be unhappy given how bad some of them have been, such as last night’s game. Among the unhappiness is a desire to want General Manager Tom Fitzgerald to do something about the team’s bottom six forwards. This post is meant to show that those People Who Matter are Correct. The bottom two forward lines of the New Jersey Devils have been real bad since Christmas.
Defining the bottom six is a bit tricky. Erik Haula has been injured since the Seattle game. This led to a call up of Justin Dowling. Stefan Noesen being ill the last two games meant Tomas Tatar got to line up with Nico Hischier. Whenever Kurtis MacDermid is dressed, the fourth line gets a top-six forward to double-shift since MacDermid certainly is not playing regular shifts for the Devils. Especially in close games, of which the Devils have played a lot in over the last ten games. For the sake of this post and based on what we have seen the most, the bottom six over the last ten games is really a pool of eight forwards. Those eight are, in order of 5-on-5 ice time played: Dawson Mercer, Paul Cotter, Tatar, Haula, Nathan Bastian, Curtis Lazar, Justin Dowling, and MacDermid.
Yes, They Have Been Bad
Now, I know they have not played well. You probably know they have not played well. A look at their 5-on-5 numbers proves that they have not played well. Why look at 5-on-5 data? That is when the bottom six lines would play. The point of contention is that they have provided next-to-nothing for the Devils. The data shows that in both raw counts and per-60 minute rates. From Natural Stat Trick, here is how the the Devils performed when either of those eight forwards were on the ice with shot attempts (Corsi), shots on net, expected goals (which factors in chances), and actual goals.
Natural Stat Trick
It is important to look at the data to see if our feelings and contentions and observations are correct beyond a single game, like last night’s loss. The data shows that, yes, the bottom six forwards have been an offense black hole since Christmas. And, on some nights, a defensive one as well. Here are some “highlights” from the data:
- Mercer is the only one among the eight who can say the Devils outscored their opposition with him on the ice. Mercer is also one of the few who has produced with Hischier and Timo Meier over the last ten games too.
- Mercer is also the only Devil who can say they have seen the Devils shoot a, well, not good but not awful rate of shots on net net when he is on the ice. The opposition has out-shot and attempted the Devils with Mercer on the ice but it is far, far better than six of the other seven forwards.
- Haula has the best numbers in that the Devils have out-attempted their opposition in 5-on-5 play when he is on the ice and ended up even in shots. Unfortunately, he has been outscored, 2-4.
- Tatar was promoted to the Hischier line in the wake of Noesen’s illness. While I think Tatar is better in a possession game, he has done little with the promotion and his meager on-ice numbers have not improved much even with two games next to Hischier and Meier.
- Kurtis MacDermid adds nothing that matters. And he has a whopping zero (0) fights since November 14. So he is not even giving that. Shoutout to his interference penalty on January 9 costing the team a score against Our Hated Rivals. It kept his 0-0 scoreline clean in 5-on-5.
- The biggest takeaway is how little the Devils create when these forwards are on the ice. These Devils may not be allowing a lot when they are on the ice save for some real bad nights (e.g. the last two games). But the Devils are hitting back with even less among their physical bottom six forwards like Cotter, Bastian, and Lazar. The rate of offense with Dowling makes Haula look like a top-six center. And even with small expected goal counts and rates, the Devils have underperformed even that.
This is not the 1990s or early 2000s where you can get away with a line being all about limiting the other team. Deep teams have their third and/or fourth lines need to win matchups every so often along with chipping in some goals. The Devils’ bottom six has done next to none of that since Christmas. The black hole nature is unfortunately real. When they get wrecked in the run of play, then it is even worse because you know there is not going to be much of a response as the team gets caved in from a quarter to a third of the game. Not to mention it puts more pressure on the top two lines to do even more in all three zones as well as in trying to put points on the board. If nothing else, we can know that we are correct that the Devils’ bottom six of eight forwards have been a real black hole.
But we do not want to just be proven right. We want fixes. We want answers. What can the Devils do about the bottom six?
Potential Solutions
Trades have been a popular topic to address this. I can see it happening and, depending on the deal, even endorse it. I will not step on the toes of others as Chris, Gerard, and Jared have written about trade targets. Go check those posts out; I have linked them to their names. The problem, to me, is timing. The NHL Trade Deadline is on March 7. With February being cut short with the Four Nations Faceoff, the Devils have 16 games to play before then. The Devils will likely remain in a playoff position by then. Most of the league still thinks they have something to play for, which means there may not be enough sellers to make something happen today, tomorrow, or even next week. If this is truly a slump, then we can hope the Devils get out of it within the next 16 games. Then again, hope is a crummy plan and 16 games is a lot to get through. What can the Devils do right now? I have some ideas.
First: Dump Kurtis MacDermid to the scratch suite or even Utica. MacDermid adds nothing and his presence in the lineup means nothing. No one is deterred from doing dumb things if he is or is not in the lineup. Matthew Tkachuk did not think, “Oh, man, Kurtis MacDermid wouldn’t want me to jump and hit Nico Hischier in the face” two days ago. No one does. Given that he adds nothing, the Devils need to keep him away from the lineup as much as possible. The Devils’ bottom six is not going to be fixed by being five forwards and a double-shifted top-six forward. This move may be necessary for idea number two.
Second: Rotate in Comets. The Devils called up Brian Halonen prior to last night’s game and, weirdly, did not dress him. Not that I think Halonen is a certified answer. But he has been Utica’s top scorer and his style of play would fit for a fourth liner. The idea is more or less to pull in Comets playing well, reward that with a chance, and if they make the most of it by playing well in 5-on-5 or drawing some calls or even, get this, scoring a goal, then they can keep him along. Should Halonen not make it, then bring up Foote again. Or try Legare once more. Or if they do not mind going to 11-7 for a bit, then give Simon Nemec a chance to earn some minutes in New Jersey once again. The current bottom six is not working so the Devils have nothing to lose by trying out some internal options.
Third: Chris wrote about this on Monday but this is a cheap way to shake things up: look to the waiver wire. No, the Devils do not need a off-the-puck nightmare like Daniel Sprong or a not-swift Arthur Kaliyev. But the Devils could find a potential upgrade to either their third or fourth line through the waiver wire over the next few weeks. Any improvement is improvement and it may provide a change of pace that can spark others to get their games going. The Devils once found Stefan Noesen on the waiver wire. If they can find anyone close to his level, then they should go for it.
Fourth: This is a bit more radical, but a shift to the top-six could lead to a whole re-construction of the lines. Up until the last two games, I would argue the Devils’ offense has been attacking well enough but just not getting enough pucks in the net. The Panthers and Leafs stifled even the Devils’ best lines in 5-on-5. Rather than hoping that was just a function of playing real good teams amid a slump, it is a reasonable time to change that up. Maybe that means swapping Meier and Palat. Maybe that means moving Mercer up. Doing so may mean a shake up downstream. Which is more than warranted given the last ten games of Devils hockey.
Fifth: A more radical move may be to read the riot act to some of these guys. Per PuckPedia, Tatar, Bastian, Dowling, and Lazar are all pending unrestricted free agents. Given their ages and performances in their careers, none of them are playing like they will definitely get a NHL contract in the Summer of 2025. It may be worth reminding them of their free agent status that they need to pick up their play. It may even work. This may not work so well for the likes of Cotter (signed for next season and is then restricted free agent), Haula (has a no-trade clause, signed through to 2026, and currently injured), Mercer (extended to 2027), MacDermid (also signed through to 2027, what a stupid contract). But it is something that can be done with little cost. Of course, this may have already happened for all I know.
Are these guaranteed to make the Devils’ bottom six perform better and chip in more than a handful of goals? No. Is it worth trying? Absolutely. The current state is not good and so something has to be adjusted, modified, changed, and so forth. It may not need to be something dramatic. But it should be something given how it has gone at this point.
One more thing: I understand that, over a course of a season, the rate of production from the likes of Cotter, Bastian, Lazar, etc. may end up being fine. I get that. But it is not fine right now and that is clearly a problem for the Devils over the last ten games and counting. With the bottom six being a black hole of offense – and some games where they are just a black hole of defense too – this leaves the Devils with two potentially effective lines in 5-on-5 play. Or at least just two lines of guys that can score goals. Opponents know that and that makes it easier to match-up against those lines. The overtime loss against Toronto was an example of that as the Devils were out-attempted 33-72 and out-shot 14-38 in 5-on-5 play. It will not surprise you that the Dowling and Lazar centered lines produced two shots total. They were a black hole of offense, much as they have been since Christmas.
Your Take
The Devils’ bottom six is bad and the data shows that they have been bad. Even if the forwards are not allowing a ton, the Devils have generated even less when they have been on the ice since Christmas. The play in the NHL in this season 2024-25 benefits teams that have more than two lines that can attack and defend. The Devils have not been this team since Christmas. It is a contributing factor to their 3-4-3 record and a seeming malaise in their performances. While I understand the People Who Matter want to see a trade, there are some options that they can try out ahead of the NHL Trade Deadline. Either way, the perceived problem is indeed a real problem and it is not going to go away by itself.
In the meantime, I want to know what you think. Please leave in the comments what you would do to help the bottom six lines. I am sure most of you will propose some kind of trade. But would you switch up the forward lines? Call up a Comet? Make a waiver claim? Any idea is worth hearing out at this point. Please leave your answers and other thoughts about the bottom two lines (no, not other issues, this post is about the bottom two lines) in the comments. Thank you for reading.