Tom Fitzgerald made his bed, and the Devils now have to lie in it.
Tom Fitzgerald has put the New Jersey Devils in the position that they are in right now, for better or worse.
Five years into his run as the General Manager of this team, the Devils have made the postseason once. And for the second season in a row, a season that began with so much promise is on life support.
That might seem a little melodramatic. After all, despite the Devils being the epitome of average at best since the Christmas break (10-13-3 to be exact), they still hold a Top 3 playoff position in the Metropolitan. For now. They’re still six points up from the playoff bubble and most of the teams behind them are selling at the trade deadline. For now. And speaking of the trade deadline, that is now a little over 48 hours away at this point. The Devils could still add reinforcements and it sounds like that is exactly what they plan on doing. Pierre LeBrun has said the Devils are basically poking around on every forward available.
And yet, it feels like the Devils are at their lowest point that they’ve been in quite some time.
It’s not just the prolonged stretch of mediocre hockey. It’s not just the Jack Hughes injury and knowing you’re probably not going to have your best player the rest of the way. It’s not just knowing what Jack’s history is when it comes to shoulder injuries. It’s not the double whammy of losing Dougie Hamilton in the very next game combined with arguably the worst loss the Devils have experienced since Opening Night 2019 against Winnipeg. It’s all of it combined.
We all remember that Winnipeg game. The one where the Devils jumped out to a 4-0 lead only to blow it. Where new Devils PK Subban, Wayne Simmonds and Nikita Gusev made their Devils debuts, alongside newly minted #1 overall pick Jack Hughes. Where Taylor Hall was healthy and not too far removed from his Hart Trophy winning season. Where the fanbase was excited about the team that then-GM Ray Shero put together as the Devils were finally ready to emerge from a half-decade of mostly irrelevance.
Those good vibes lasted a whole 40 minutes before Winnipeg stormed back, scored four unanswered goals to tie the game, and eventually winning the game in the shootout. In the process, the Jets handed the Devils one of the more demoralizing losses in recent franchise history. The 2019-20 Devils ultimately never recovered from that loss, which resulted in both John Hynes and Ray Shero being fired, Taylor Hall being traded, and a last place finish in the Metropolitan Division before the COVID-19 pandemic ended that season a month early.
Hindsight being what it is, we can see that that team was flawed. Subban was a shell of his former Norris Trophy winning self. Simmonds was just about done as an NHL player. Gusev had a fine rookie year but skating and defensive issues had him out of the league just two years later. Hughes wasn’t physically ready for the NHL. Hall was entering his walk year and seemingly was never close to putting pen to paper on a long-term deal. This is a Devils team that was leaning on Mirco Mueller and Will Butcher to play 18 minutes a night. The team wasn’t as good as we thought.
For as demoralizing as losing to Winnipeg was in 2019, last night was worse.
It’s worse BECAUSE the Devils fought back after what happened in Vegas to overcome a 3-1 deficit and tie the game….only to lose in the final seconds of regulation and get zero points out of the game when points are at a premium. It’s worse BECAUSE you could argue the Devils got hosed on a controversial icing call and it seems like the officials have it out against the Devils. It’s worse BECAUSE there was some good process. It’s worse BECAUSE Erik Haula, one of the main reasons why the Devils haven’t had a good third line all season, lost a key defensive zone faceoff the one time faceoffs actually do matter. It’s worse BECAUSE of what the Devils have dealt with both with injuries and their mediocre play. It’s worse BECAUSE the Devils are in a playoff spot, but they’re hanging on for their dear lives, and even if they do get in, its tough to take them seriously as a threat to do anything.
Of course, anything can happen if the Devils get in. I still believe in their goaltending and their defense. I believe in the coach. I do think they’re capable of playing a grind it out playoff-style game. I don’t think the Devils necessarily played poorly against one of the better teams in the West in Dallas, or the game before in Vegas. And I do think there is value in the Devils playing playoff hockey. Those games are an important teaching moment for a group that clearly still has a lot to learn. IF they get in to the playoffs.
The problem is that those “when” the Devils get in has now become an “if” the Devils get in. Considering the Devils had a significant lead at the Christmas break, that is a problem.
Which brings us to Tom Fitzgerald, the architect of this team.
Generally speaking, I like most of the moves that Fitzgerald has made. It wasn’t too long ago where I was praising him for having fixed the Devils biggest issues heading into the season. I don’t know if it was just fool’s gold or me jumping the gun a bit, but the Devils have done their best since I wrote that to make me look like a fool.
Then you remember the WHY when it comes to why those moves being made made. That the Devils went out and added Brett Pesce, Johnathan Kovacevic, and Brenden Dillon to the backend BECAUSE they let too much experience on the blueline walk out the door the prior summer so they had to overcorrect. That the Devils traded away Alexander Holtz BECAUSE they whiffed on the 7th overall pick a few years earlier and they were trying to salvage some value from him before he’s out of the league in a few years. That the Devils did get tougher to play against with guys like Stefan Noesen and Paul Cotter, but they were soft in the first place. They’ve also had to use assets to get bottom six forwards BECAUSE draft picks like Chase Stillman haven’t worked out and the Devils haven’t developed forwards.
Who is ultimately responsible for that? Tom Fitzgerald.
Just like how Tom Fitzgerald has been responsible for the goaltending being a mess until Year 5 of his run. Just like how Fitzgerald has been responsible for $6M times five years in Ondrej Palat’s 77 points in 180 games. Just like how Fitzgerald is responsible for slowly chipping away at the Devils depth, whether its Fabian Zetterlund being traded, Jesper Boqvist being non-tendered, or Yegor Sharangovich having one good and one dreadful season in Calgary. Just like how Fitzgerald never replaced Michael McLeod despite having an offseason to do so and the 4C position has been a mess ever since.
Yes, Fitzgerald has been unlucky to some extent between Jack Hughes’s and Dougie Hamilton’s injuries, Corey Crawford retiring on him, Jonathan Bernier physically breaking down, and now, Erik Haula being a shell of his former self. But every team has setbacks. The good teams find ways to navigate them. For the most part, Tom Fitzgerald’s teams have not. And injuries aren’t an excuse for the nine weeks of mediocre hockey prior to Jack’s injury. Not when Jake Allen and Nico Daws picked up the slack while Jacob Markstrom was out.
Last year, I wrote about how Tom Fitzgerald was too patient as the Devils season spiraled out of control. I don’t really care if you call it patience or stubbornness but the bottom line is that the Devils waited too long to do anything to address their issues, which were blatantly obvious, until it was too late. Waited too long to get a goalie. Waited too long to fire the coach. Waited too long to do anything.
He’s doing the same thing again this year.
Tom Fitzgerald said back in December that he knew what this team needed. Those needs haven’t changed, and if anything, are only exasperated with Jack Hughes on the shelf. We’re now just over 48 hours from the trade deadline and the general manager of this team has done as much to address it as you or I have…..nothing. For the second year in a row, Tom Fitzgerald has had the glaring holes on this roster cost them games only to proceed to sit on his hands for several months. He’s been very good at identifying the problem, but not so good at fixing it once we get in season.
I understand the salary cap is a factor. I understand that he is believing in the guys in the room and believing the answers are in the room but at some point, you have to start believing what your eyes are telling you when you watch these games. Not all teams that fire coaches mid season go on a run but some certainly do. And its tough to buy the “you can’t possibly get a goalie midseason” excuse when just a year later, Colorado reshaped theirs on the fly before Christmas.
What does it say about the Devils that their bottom six has been the black hole it’s been and nothing has been done to address it? What does it say about the Devils “prospects” in Utica that nobody there has been deemed worthy of getting an extended look? Does that mean the GM who assembled this team is so stubborn that he refuses to give the Nolan Footes or Chase Stillmans or Brian Halonens of the world a chance? Or does that mean that the Nolan Footes and Chase Stillmans and Brian Halonens of the world aren’t getting a chance because they’re not good enough to be NHL players?
What does it say that about the Devils that two years into the Timo Meier experiment, they seemingly still don’t know quite how to use him to the point where he goes for a stretch of almost 20 games without a goal? He’s only the highest paid forward on the team. What does it say that Dawson Mercer has gone from top prospect to guy who hasn’t taken the next step and probably should’ve been healthy scratched at some point in the last two years for floating if he didn’t have a consecutive games streak ongoing?
Isn’t this an indictment of the general manager who built this team?
Until the Boston Bruins looped in the Devils as a third party to send Trent Frederic to Edmonton, Boston and New Jersey were two of the final four teams this season that had yet to make a trade this season. Every other team aside from them, Buffalo, and Ottawa have made at least one since Opening Night.
Again, the Devils have known about their issues since DECEMBER. How are we getting our first trade of the season three days before the deadline when we’ve known what the issues are, and this being a trade that did nothing to actually address said issues. I didn’t just write about the players they could and should be going after for the last six weeks for my own health (hint: FORWARDS). The Devils have sat by as players have come off the board, from JT Miller to Gustav Nyqvist to Trent Frederic to Mikael Granlund. On a related note, Granlund beat Haula on the faceoff ten seconds prior to the Thomas Harley goal last night.
All of this brings us back to Fitzgerald and the conundrum he’s found himself in.
Should he see where this season appears to be going and sell? Or should he double down on the investment he’s made in this group and buy?
I think the choice is obvious. Given what the Devils have already invested into this season, they need to buy.
I also think neither option is great, as I’ll explain below.
Why Selling is NOT an Acceptable Option
The Devils became pot-committed for 2024-25 with the acquisitions of Jacob Markstrom, Jake Allen, Brett Pesce, Brenden Dillon, and Stefan Noesen between March and July 1 of last year. All of those players are over the age of 30 with the two goalies in their mid 30s. This matters as the Devils are no longer a rebuilding team that should be in asset-accumulation mode.
I don’t see how you do all of that, plus the Paul Cotter trade, and then five months into the season decide to pull the plug when you’re still in a playoff position, as tenuous as their grip on that spot is.
For starters, what exactly do the Devils have to sell? Yeah, they could probably get a 3rd for Allen, and maybe another 3rd for Kovacevic. What do they have other than that? A bunch of role players on expiring contracts that haven’t been good enough for this Devils team? All of a sudden, the Devils are gonna maximize selling the likes of Curtis Lazar, Nathan Bastian, or Tomas Tatar? You know, the guys the Devils need to upgrade over? Or a veteran in Ondrej Palat or Erik Haula who has generally been viewed as a disappointment? Or a guy like Dawson Mercer who’s development has seemingly plateaued.
What exactly are you planning on getting for these guys?
Even if you max out on the value of those guys, what does a couple of barely Top 100 picks and some magic beans do for the Devils going forward?
Not a whole lot. Certainly not in the immediate future.
Also, this is the part of the article where I point out that the 1st round pick they owe the Calgary Flames in the Markstrom deal is Top-10 protected. So even if you wanted to stealth tank or bottom out, you’d have to basically go 0-20 the rest of the way to make the bottom 11 of the league standings. Remember, the Devils would have to get into the Top (Bottom?) 11 to have a chance to move up to #1 overall. And that’s assuming that the teams already in those spots are good enough to win enough games to ruin their own tank. Seeing as we’re talking about bad teams that are definitely going to sell, I have my doubts.
What is worth more and what is worth pursuing? A roughly 3% chance of picking 1st overall in a draft with no clear cut #1 pick? It’s not like this is a Connor McDavid or Auston Matthews first overall draft? Heck, this might not even be a Jack Hughes first overall draft. Is that worth more than a roughly 3% chance of winning the Stanley Cup if things break right for you once you get in?
The choice is clear.
The Devils made their bed for this season with the moves they made (never mind the long-term contracts that Jesper Bratt, Timo Meier, Dougie Hamilton, Nico Hischier, Ondrej Palat and others have signed), and despite that aforementioned stretch of mediocrity, they still hold a Top 3 spot in the Metropolitan Division with 25% of the season remaining and most of the teams chasing them down anywhere between 6 or more points behind. Yes, Columbus is closing is on them from the rear, and maybe the Blue Jackets overtake the Devils for 3rd place in the Metro. Or maybe Columbus is another one of the average teams behind them that has gone on a run only to still be arms length behind the Devils when its said and done because the Devils have done just enough since the Christmas break to stay a step ahead. But can anyone definitively say Ottawa or Boston (who traded Trent Frederic and lost Brad Marchand to injury) or the Rangers (who traded Ryan Lindgren over the weekend) will overtake them this late in the year? I have my doubts.
I want to be clear when I say that without Jack Hughes, I don’t think this Devils team is a championship contender. But that doesn’t mean you just punt on the season either the second he goes down, especially when you have already done the work to this point to put yourself into a position to get in. Yes, you might wind up being a one-and-done playoff team. That might’ve been the case regardless of whether or not Jack got hurt. Yes, you might lose guys like Kovacevic or Allen for nothing over the summer. The Devils might’ve moved on from one or both of them regardless because there are legitimate hockey reasons for not signing either.
Making the playoffs matters. It should matter a lot to Tom Fitzgerald who made the moves he made to put them in a position to get there, because if he didn’t, we should be having serious conversations on whether or not a GM who missed the playoffs in 4 of 5 seasons is cut out for this job. It should matter a lot to a team with a young core that still needs that big game experience to learn exactly what it takes to make a deep run and win a championship. With or without Jack, the group itself needs that. It should also matter a lot to a coach like Sheldon Keefe who is ultimately judged on the team’s win-loss record.
If the Devils were to pivot now and sell and they wind up missing the playoffs for the fourth time in five years, what would the justification be for Tom Fitzgerald to keep his job going forward. At what point do on-ice results matter?
Why Buying Is a Must, Even If You Are A Reluctant Buyer
Nobody likes to overpay for anything. And some of the players that I previously mentioned as having come off the board are a bit of an overpay.
But it’s also part of the territory when it comes to being a front office executive. If you don’t overpay for a player in free agency, he goes elsewhere and you don’t get the player.
Tom Fitzgerald probably could’ve made some trades by now. He would know the market better than I do. Some might argue that the prudent thing to do is wait until the last minute when the sellers lower their asking price.
Perhaps. Or perhaps its worth paying what the sticker price is on Saturday because that same player might not be around come Sunday. Supply is limited.
Perhaps the Devils could’ve gotten Jake Evans a month ago, or two weeks ago, or last week. Now he’s off the board. Not via trade, via contract extension. You snooze, you lose.
Perhaps its worth getting out in front of the issue like Dallas did with Granlund and Ceci. Or what the Wild did with Nyqvist. Or like what Colorado did with their goaltending.
Perhaps when you put a big contract like Matthew Tkachuk on LTIR, you use this opportunity to shore up a hole by going out and trading for Seth Jones like what the Florida Panthers did. The league’s LTIR rules might suck, but Tampa and Vegas aren’t complaining after using them to their advantage for their championship runs, and Florida isn’t complaining now either. You know Tampa and Vegas wouldn’t just punt on the season if they were in the Devils spot and they potentially had Jack Hughes LTIR money at their disposal at the deadline. Florida isn’t either. We’re talking about franchises where pursuing a championship is the top goal, ownership gives the GM the resources he needs, and the GM isn’t afraid to make the big move.
I’m not saying the Devils won’t use LTIR to their advantage should the situation warrant it. I hope this isn’t like last year where the Devils had Dougie Hamilton on IR, but the team was bad enough where they only way they used it was being a third party on the Chris Tanev trade. We obviously don’t know exactly what the injury timeline looks like for both Hughes and Hamilton. I don’t want to speculate on either but I will say neither one looked good. And that’s a lot of money that could potentially be placed on LTIR though, giving the Devils an avenue to address several holes.
We also know that the cap is going up the next few years. By a lot.
The salary cap is projected to increase to $95.5M next season and $104M the year after that. Prices for free agents will increase as teams have cash burning a hole in their pockets, and most contracts that are already signed will only become better values because they were signed several years ago.
This is less of a concern for a team like the Devils who did most of their free agency shopping last year and have $77.643M committed to 17 players next year. Even with a pending RFA in Luke Hughes due a raise, there’s still plenty of room to go out and make additions to a roster that frankly could use a few more pieces up front regardless of whether or not Jack Hughes is healthy.
For that reason, I think Tom Fitzgerald should be prioritizing adding players with term here at the deadline. Get guys who can help stabilize the situation now, but also potentially be part of the solution next year. Take advantage of the LTIR rules now and worry about the cap come summertime when you probably need to jettison some dead weight off of the roster anyways, one way or another. We’ve seen time and time and time again just how fake the cap actually is and how teams will always find a way to wriggle their way out of undesirable contracts. Maybe its the Devils turn this summer, regardless of whether or not they add.
Now, will he buy? Perhaps. Or as Emily Kaplan said, perhaps they’ll add rentals as well.
I don’t love the idea of adding rentals given where this season has been going but its better than the alternative, which is continuing to do nothing. But the market is what the market is. Most of the players on the market are pending UFAs. That’s the nature of how trade deadlines work.
At least with rentals, you’re bringing in veteran players with defined skillsets who have been there before and might be able to stabilize the situation. Maybe you get some secondary scoring from someone like Kyle Palmieri and that’s the difference between a win and a loss. Maybe you get a defensive specialist and faceoff specialist so the next time the Devils are in a late game situation like Dallas, they win that draw and at least get a point out of the game. It might not be enough to get past a team like Carolina in Round 1, but at least you’re better equipped to match up.
Why This Probably Ultimately Will Not Matter
At the end of the day, only one team can win the Stanley Cup. And with how things are trending, I’m not exactly confident that that team will be the New Jersey Devils this season.
I’ve already said that I don’t think this team is a contender without Hughes. And I know there are plenty of people in the comments section who have their doubts this team is a contender with him. That’s not the point. The point is even in a year where its this wide open with no great team and a year where the Devils should theoretically be all in, enough doubt has settled in, for me at least, where I’m beginning to question everyone and everything.
I don’t know how the Devils are going to respond after what I thought was the most demoralizing loss this team has had in the regular season in five years. I actually liked that they fought back tonight and showed a little something by tying it up, but losing in the manner they did can potentially break a team. And given how the Devils have generally reacted the last few months to a mediocre stretch, why should I believe they’ll have another response a few days later after yet another gut punch?
Tom Fitzgerald surely sees this. He surely sees Timo Meier and Brenden Dillon being devastated postgame. The Devils have had as bad a week as you can have. Vibes are as low as they can possibly be. So what is a general manager to do?
Fitzgerald could sell. It doesn’t sound like he is planning to though, nor should he as its the worst of the three options. Selling a few months after making the trades he made and the signings he made is counterproductive. I also question whether he has enough job security to punt on yet another season and keep his job.
Fitzgerald could buy and the Devils might stabilize things long enough to where they can hold off the also-rans in the Eastern Conference and earn a playoff spot. Maybe they add some guys who are under contract for next season and get out in front of their summer shopping a little early, thanks in part to LTIR. Maybe they even find a way to beat Carolina or Washington in a playoff series. But is there any reason to believe that this team will flip the switch all of a sudden? I think there is value in these players playing meaningful playoff games, even if it winds up being a one-and-done situation.
Or Fitzgerald could do what he does best in-season. Nothing. And just like with selling, an argument could be made that this should be it for him as General Manager of this team if that’s the route he chooses and this team misses the playoffs as a result, although his successor would certainly be in a good position with plenty of draft capital from which to trade and nearly $18M in cap space.
It’s quite the conundrum indeed.