New Jersey Devils defenseman Jonas Siegenthaler finished last season with injuries and less-than-stellar results. Currently, he is an effective big-minute defenders in his own end. This post goes into the data and into why he may be surging now.
Jonas Siegenthaler is a big-minute defenseman for the New Jersey Devils. Prior to Wednesday’s games, Siegenthaler leads the league in 5-on-5 ice time played at 272:52 (due to playing more games) and is 30th in the NHL out of 247 defensemen in 5-on-5 ice time per game at 18:11 at Natural Stat Trick. What is more important is that he has been largely effective during these minutes. It was rough at times for New Jersey’s #71 last season. Siegenthaler appears to be back and arguably better than ever. Let us look more into that and figure out why that may be the case.
The Siegenthaler Surge at 5-on-5
To start, let me establish what Siegenthaler is and what he is not. He is a defenseman with an emphasis on the defense. He is not particularly offensive. At most, he will shoot the puck at an average of just one per game. He does not get power play ice time, He has never had a 5-on-5 individual expected goal count higher than 2.67 per Natural Stat Trick. His career high for actual goals in 5-on-5 play is just three. Prior to Thursday’s game, he has four assists and twelve shots in 5-on-5 play. Siegenthaler is not an offensive defenseman.
As a result, one needs to look at his on-ice rates to get a real sense of what is happening when he is on the ice. What are the Devils giving up when #71 is taking a shift in 5-on-5? The answer is not a lot of danger. Again, these numbers are from Natural Stat Trick before last night’s game and the ranks are for Devils defensemen with at least six games played (sorry Daniil Misyul):
- Attempts (Corsi) – For: 50.57 per 60 (6th out of 8); Against: 52.11 per 60 (4th out of 8), 49.25% (6th out of 8)
- Fenwick (Unblocked Attempts) – For: 36.06 per 60 (6th out of 8); Against: 37.6 per 60 (3rd out of 8), 48.96% (6th out of 8)
- Shots – For: 24.41 per 60 (6th out of 8); Against: 23.75 per 60 (3rd out of 8), 50.68% (5th out of 8)
- Scoring Chances – For: 22.21 per 60 (8th out of 8), Against: 18.25 (2nd out of 8), 54.89% (2nd out of 8)
- High Danger Scoring Chances – For: 8.79 per 60 (7th out of 8). Against: 7.26 per 60 (3rd out of 8), 58.90% (2nd out of 8)
- Expected Goals – For: 2.16 per 60 (5th out of 8), Against: 1.74 per 60 (tied for 1st out of 8), 55.45% (2nd out of 8)
- Goals – For: 2.86 per 60 (4th out of 8), Against: 1.54 per 60 (2nd out of 8), 65% (2nd out of 8)
The summary of all of those numbers is that offense may not happen a lot with Siegenthaler – and his usual partner, Jonathan Kovacevic – on the ice, but the Devils are allowing a lot less in terms of scoring chances and high danger chances. This means a really low xGA/60 and a really low GA/60. Siegenthaler is very much providing defense in defenseman.
I also included Fenwick, or unblocked attempts, to highlight how low of a rate of unblocked attempts the Siegenthaler-Kovacevic pairing has allowed. Siegenthaler has definitely put up more blocks himself in all situations, second only to Brenden Dillon. The difference is that opposing offenses are generating less attempts with Siegenthaler on the ice (CA/60 of 52.11) compared with Dillon’s CA/60 of 64.89. It speaks further to how the pairing is really keeping opponents from the house of medium and higher danger attempts.
Keep in mind that Siegenthaler has largely done this with Johnathan Kovacevic by his side. He got to play regular minutes with Montreal in the last two seasons but never close to the near 21 minutes he has been averaging. It was thought that Kovacevic had to earn a spot on the roster at camp. With Siegenthaler, he is playing significant minutes and also putting up the best 5-on-5 numbers of his career when it comes to against-rate stats. Also keep in mind that Kovacevic is similar to Siegenthaler in that he is not a particularly offensive defenseman either. His lack of speed, in particular, has burned him when he does pinch at times. But the defensive pairing of two largely defensive defensemen have been excellent together. The pairing has wonderfully low against rate stats like a 22.42 shots against per 60 and an 1.63 expected goals against per 60. It is a like-like pairing that has been doing the business of keeping the opposition at bay.
What about the forwards? It has been a mixed bag. From an expected goal perspective per NST, his most common forward line in front of him has been the excellent line of Nico Hischier, Timo Meier, and Dawson Mercer. It has been a good combo, as you would expect. The results have been murkier with Paul Cotter, Erik Haula, and Stefan Noesen and not a whole lot better with Jack Hughes, Jesper Bratt, and Ondrej Palat. Not so much from an allowance standpoint. Siegenthaler’s xGA with them has been real low too. However, those lines have not really clicked from an offensive standpoint with Siegenthaler behind them. That would be the source of the not-so-hot on-ice rates by the Devils. If and when they do click, then Siegenthaler’s awesome start to this season would be more obvious.
The Siegenthaler Surge on the Penalty Kill
Of course, all of that is from 5-on-5 play. What about the penalty kill? The Devils have used Siegenthaler quite a bit on a quite successful team penalty kill. With 31 shorthanded minutes played, he joins Kovacevic, Dillon, and Brett Pesce as the Devils defensemen averaging at least two minutes per game. Unlike those three, Siegenthaler’s against rate stats have been ludicrously good in shorthanded situations per NST:
- Attempts (Corsi) – Against: 57.39 per 60
- Fenwick (Unblocked Attempts) – Against: 42.08 per 60
- Shots – Against: 24.87 per 60
- Scoring Chances – Against: 28.69 per 60
- High Danger Scoring Chances – Against: 11.48 per 60
- Expected Goals – Against: 3.62 per 60
- Goals – Against: 5.74 per 60
Outside of goals against, Siegenthaler clears the rest of the penalty killers on the Devils. It is possible that Siegenthaler has been seeing secondary power play units more than primary ones given how much more ice time Kovacevic and Dillon have received in shorthanded situations. That would skew the numbers in Siegenthaler’s favor. Even so, these numbers are very low against any kind of power play situation and points to how effective he has been in working with his unit. Should Dillon or Kovacevic get pulled from PK #1 or are serving a penalty, Siegenthaler is more than capable of handling the situation. It may not seem like a lot but putting up numbers you would expect to see in 5-on-5 play in 4-on-5 situations is impressive.
The Marks of Improvement
The PK stats speak for themselves. The 5-on-5 numbers may not look amazing across the board given the relatively low rates of offense. But the against rate stats are very strong, especially when you look at the chances allowed. What is more impressive is that they are the best numbers of Siegenthaler’s career of 5-on-5 play. As are his penalty kill on-ice rates.
Yes, it is from 15 games into this season and things can change. Still, he has a CA/60 rate of at least three fewer attempts per 60 than his past full seasons. He has a lower SA/60 rate than his depth role in 2018-19 in his first 26 NHL games with Washington. His xGA/60 not only went down from 2.75 to 1.74 from last season, but is fewer than any other season he has ever had. Yes, the current rates may not last for a full 82 but there is a real chance that Siegenthaler posts his best on-ice against rates of his whole career in 2024-25. Which would represent how good he has been at defending.
This is a huge improvement over last season. Last season was a trying time for Siegenthaler and John Marino, as Jared correctly explained back in April. Siegenthaler did miss significant time due to injury but did not play particularly well before it. His on-ice against rates in 5-on-5 were much higher, which was not what you want to see from a defenseman whose specialty is supposed to be defensive zone play. The Devils moved on from Marino. Siegenthaler and his five-season contract remained. The hope was that he could be fixed. The numbers show he is excelling.
So What Happened?
A couple of things. First, his defensive partner. Jared’s explanation as to what went wrong last season for Siegenthaler was a common pairing with Simon Nemec that did not go particularly well in the run of play. Nemec was indeed a rookie and Siegenthaler did not mesh well with a guy still figuring things out. His time with Dougie Hamilton went quite well as it did in 2022-23, but Hamilton’s own pectoral tear forced a change. The time with Nemec did not go well and neither did another attempted pairing with a more experienced Marino. While Sheldon Keefe has not re-united Siegenthaler with Hamilton, his pairing with Kovacevic, again, has been quite effective in the defensive zone. While it is not a quick pairing, Siegenthaler has been more mindful about his own activation and been able to be present in the few times Kovacevic has been caught. The point remains: Siegenthaler has a good thing going with someone other than Hamilton. That has helped this surge happen. It also has made the Kovacevic acquisition far better than I expected. I am happy to be wrong about that, by the way.
Second, and I think this has been more important, a far less aggressive gameplan for defensemen. While Ryan McGill is still in charge of the penalty kill and the defense, Sheldon Keefe’s arrival has forced a massive change to how the Devils play defensively. Simply, they play more methodically. Instead of the get-quick-stops-for-quick-exits and swarming ways under Lindy Ruff, the Devils as a whole have been taking extra touches and making extra passes in their own end to break out. This is done to ensure fewer failed zone exits and situations where they are caught out of sorts when rush plays do not work. The Devils are still guilty at times of looking for stretch plays, but the Devils have been less aggressive positionally against puck carriers.
This has been a big help for Siegenthaler. While I would say he is quicker than Kovacevic, he is certainly not fast or dynamic enough to lead exits himself or hit on stretch passes for rush plays on a regular basis. He is not anything like Luke Hughes or Damon Severson. He can settle a game down and make simpler reads to get the puck forward. It may make for some more adventurous moments but the data and the results on the ice are clear: it has helped the Devils more than it hurt. It is closer to what Siegenthaler is capable of doing with the puck. And, should it falter, he is in a position to recover instead of worrying about counter-attack rushes every so often.
Similarly, the defensemen not being given the green light to constantly activate has also helped Siegenthaler. Again, Kovacevic has been caught out more often on a pinch this season. But even then, you do not see the defensemen on the Devils regularly jumping up in the offensive zone like they did under Ruff. The common trait was if the puck was on one side, then the weakside defenseman activates. It did not matter who, everyone got involved. When it works, it’s great. When it fails, it is risky. For a not-so-offensively-skilled or swift defenseman like Siegenthaler, he is able to get back into a position to defend should it come to that and, otherwise, keep pucks in the zone.
It remains to be seen whether this change in the gameplan will last for a whole season or be effective for the team as a whole. But it suits Siegenthaler very well so far. Again, the data and the results show that he is exceling at the job he is doing. And if/when the forwards in front of him play more effective offense, he will stand out even more for taking care of business in his own end.
A third factor is that he could actually be healthy. This is more in relation to last season. In Jared’s assessment back in April, he cited Jack Han noting that Siegenthaler just was not moving well on the ice. It is hard to succeed in this sport if movement is an issue. He did break his left foot in January blocking a shot. While he returned in February, it is not hard to think that he still struggled getting back into skating even when cleared. Siegenthaler’s 2023-24 ended early thanks to Matt Rempe elbowing him in the head with Kurtis MacDermid watching. After a full offseason of recovery and training, it is possible that Siegenthaler is actually 100% or close to it. That could also be a reason why he is playing so much better now than he did last season. Why he is thriving compared with past seasons may be more of a result of the other two factors.
One More Thing
One thing about analysis, especially with a defenseman, is that it is easy to highlight errors over everything else. I am taking a risk of writing this prior to last night’s game, where it is possible Siegenthaler had a disasterous night. The kind of night that makes you wonder if he really is a NHL defenseman. The thing is that everyone in the NHL is going to have mistakes and bad nights and so forth. Everyone. Stevens, Niedermayer, Lidstrom, Orr, Robinson, Coffey, Hedman, Bourque, Harvey, Potvin, Pronger, you name the player, they can tell you they were not perfect defensemen. And I intentionally named some of the best to ever do it. One of the many reasons why I use data the way I do is to highlight how a player has performed over a whole season or a length of time beyond a game or two. The goal is to show whether a player is succeeding even knowing that it is not perfect. Perfection is almost impossible to attain in hockey. Highlighting someone who has been doing very good work in their own end with data to back it up is more than sufficient for praise.
Your Take
Now you know what I think of how well Jonas Siegenthaler has been playing in this season, what data supports it, and why I think he has been playing better than last season – at least in his own end. Do you think the Siegenthaler surge will be sustained? Why do you think he is playing much better than last season or any of his other seasons as a Devil? What do you expect him to do going forward? Please leave your answers and other thoughts about Siegenthaler in the comments. Thank you for reading.