The New Jersey Devils are 5-2-0 to start the season. However, some of the People Who Matter are not so impressed based on who they have beaten so far. This post explores the take that the Devils haven’t beaten anyone good yet.
During the 2-4 loss by the New Jersey Devils to the Carolina Hurricanes, there were many of the People Who Matter that were unhappy. Understandably so as the Canes pretty much dominated the game even if ended up being a one-shot game within the last five minutes. Carolina, as noted by Jackson in his recap, has played the same style of hockey for years and the Devils have not figured it out. I agree with that point. However, during the Gamethread, a second, also interesting point came up by different People Who Matter: the Devils were getting beat (steamrolled, in the case of Curtis Lazar’s line) by a Good Team. And the Devils already lost to Toronto, who is also a Good Team. And the Devils have only beaten apparent Not-So-Good teams in Buffalo, Washington, and Utah. And, I suppose, you can add Ottawa to that list after yesterday’s 3-1 win. The question remains: How can we claim that the 2024-25 Devils will really be a better team if those are the teams they beat?
In other words: The New Jersey Devils ain’t beat nobody, Pawl! They ain’t anybody!
Let me go through this take because it gets to some larger points about how we look at teams.
The Surface Level Pains of Truth
The take on its surface are mostly correct. The Devils took on two teams in Toronto and Carolina that are correctly observed as being quality teams. As much as they have not found success in the postseason, Toronto and Carolina each earned over 100 points last season and comfortably made the playoffs. Carolina has a streak of six seasons and counting of making the playoffs and won over 50 games in each of their last three. Toronto has made it in each of their last four seasons (eight if you include being in the Return to Play format) and earned at least 67% of the points in their last three seasons. They are among the top teams in the NHL by record, which makes me them among the top teams in the NHL period. If the Devils are truly set to be contenders or take steps toward being one, then it is expected that they should beat some teams like them before they get anointed as contenders.
The recent loss in Carolina definitely raises that point. Many of the People Who Matter recall how Carolina owned the Devils in the second round of the 2023 playoffs. And October 15’s game in Carolina was very similar to how most of those games went. If we want the Devils to have a real chance to win it all, then they are likely going to have to learn how to beat Carolina. Despite the wins, the change of Sheldon Keefe from Lindy Ruff, and other roster moves, seeing more of the same means that perhaps they have some ways to go.
However, when you do some digging into the truth, then some flaws are revealed.
When Perceptions are Reality
I certainly will not argue that Toronto and Carolina are not good teams. They are. However, that just means they are among the top teams. Being good can and does go beyond the upper crust of the league. This is a league where 16 teams make the playoffs. Before you claim that making the playoffs alone is not good enough, it is certainly much better than missing it outright. Especially for a Devils franchise that has made it just once under each of the last two general managers.
Many have seem to have forgot that Washington made the playoffs last season. Do I think they are all that amazing? No. Do I think they owe a lot to Charlie Lindgren playing a whole lot better than expected? Yes. Did they squeak in? You bet. But they still made the playoffs last season. They finished ahead of the Devils by ten (10) points. They certainly had a “mid” record at 40-31-11 but that was still superior to what the Devils put out last season. I may not think the Caps will do so well in 2024-25, but we have to admit the Devils did beat a team that made the playoffs in 2023-24. The Devils are going to need to beat teams like them if they want to get into the 2025 Stanley Cup playoffs too.
While it is early in the season, the Devils also had the fortune (?) of playing a hot team already: Utah. Arizona certainly did not make the playoffs last season. They finished with a worse record than New Jersey. But the moved Utah HC certainly looked strong before playing the Devils on Columbus Day. They won their first three games. They scored 16 goals across those three games. Two of those three wins involved wild 6-5 overtime victories against the Isles (who made the playoffs last season) and Our Hated Rivals (same) in their respective buildings. Utah absolutely did not look like the Coyotes they once were. They absolutely did not play like them. Then they played the Devils, who just dominated them that afternoon. Cooling off a team on a hot streak is not nothing.
Of course, I can understand why some would not want to consider that context. Those facts do not care about their feelings that state that Washington and Utah are Not-So-Good teams and beating them means little. Those same feelings are not going to care about some facts from last season that absolutely has to be considered if we are going to be fully honest about the New Jersey Devils.
Signs of Improvement
Last season’s Devils team was not only Not-So-Good, they were Quite Bad. They missed the playoffs by ten points, they did not even win half of their games (38-39-5), and they ended up drafting tenth overall in the 2024 NHL Draft. Mediocre teams are not picking in the top ten of a draft or missing the postseason by multiple games.
The head-to-head records of the 2023-24 reveal how bad that team was in terms of getting results. Here is how the Devils did against the teams they played in this season in 2023-24:
- Buffalo: 2-1-0, 4 points, 14 Goals For (GF), 11 Goals Against (GA)
- Toronto: 2-1-0, 4 points, 14 GF, 13 GA
- Washington: 1-3-0, 2 points, 14 GF, 19 GA
- Arizona (a.k.a. Utah): 0-1-1, 1 point, 4 GF, 8 GA
- Carolina: 0-2-1, 1 point, 4 GF, 8 GA
- Ottawa: 2-1-0, 12 GF, 10 GA
Knowing this, I would like to congratulate the Devils for beating the ex-Coyotes for the first time since a 5-4 OT win on March 5, 2023! That is already an improvement.
I would also like to add that the Devils have a shot of improving on last season’s results (2 points) against Washington already this Saturday. A potentially large improvement since regulation wins over the Caps helps the Devils’ cause of making the playoffs at the expense of Washington’s hopes. Whether you want the 2024-25 Devils to be contenders or just need them to make the playoffs first, improvement needs to happen. We already have signs of that.
If you dig in further to the head-to-head record of last season, there are plenty of opportunities to succeed. Yes, the 2023-24 Devils went 0-4 against Our Hated Rivals and that hurt a lot. They also went 0-2 against an Anaheim team that ultimately won just 29 games last season. You could argue that hurt more since the Ducks finished way worse than New Jersey. They also split the record against San Jose, who was the worst team in the NHL last season by a massive margin. (The loss was at home too.) They also split records against other non-playoff teams like Calgary and St. Louis. Remember that the Devils missed the playoffs by ten points last season. Had the Devils just pulled out more wins against the other non-playoff squads and fringe playoff teams like Washington, then they would have been a playoff team. They did not. However, the 2024-25 Devils – the current Devils – have already begun to make strides to avoid that fate. In fewer than ten games this season too.
You Really Can’t Look Past Anyone
Let us consider the teams each of the Devils’ wins came against for another perspective.
- The Devils beat Buffalo twice in Prague. I do not think much of Buffalo’s chances this season based on how well the Devils beat them. They did get a win recently, though. They beat the defending Stanley Cup Champions, Florida, 5-2 on October 12. That is a win over a Good team. If the Panthers are not Good, then I do not know what the word even means.
- Washington picked up a win in their next game after losing to the Devils. It was a 4-2 victory against a Las Vegas team that many would say are Good. After all, they made the playoffs last season (and in every season but 2021-22) and certainly in a more comfortable fashion than the Caps. Last night, the Capitals held on to beat Dallas 3-2. Not only is Dallas a Good Team, but they started this season 4-0. Washington handed them their very first loss.
- Utah, as mentioned, beat the Isles and Our Hated Rivals each in overtime and in their buildings. Wins that put them on a streak going into the Devils game. Those are also wins over playoff teams. Rivalry aside, OHR are Good. Isles, well, they keep making the postseason. Relative to Utah/Arizona, the Isles have been a better team.
- And Ottawa, the recent team the Devils beat last night, also has a 3-1 win over Florida and a defense-optional 8-7 overtime victory over Los Angeles. Two teams who made the postseason last season and also “enjoyed” their games against the Devils. Wins over Good opponents.
Yes, these teams seen as lesser pulled out some victories over some quality opponents. Likewise, those same Good Teams (or at least 2024 Playoff Teams) dropped games. Squads that made the postseason and one that even won the whole thing. One of the things that separates the good from the not-so-good is whether the successes are sustained and the failures are not. It is early in the season. It may be too early to make that call. But the good teams recognize when things do not go their way, adjust and prepare for the next one, and get a result. The not-so-good teams, well, do not and they are more likely to spiral into streaks without earning points. See: Buffalo.
This is where I take the most issue with the “Devils ain’t beat nobody” take. This is a league where no one can really look past anyone. No opponent can be dismissed. Even if the opponent did not make the playoffs last season or the opponent missed it by a country mile or the opponent looks on paper to be three Name Brand players and fifteen Guys or all signs point to the opponent competing hard in the James Hagens Sweepstakes. (Consolation prize: Porter Martone?) Looking past an opponent will be punished. Already the Devils’ “not so good” opponents that they have beat have some choice wins. We are just in the middle of October.
And, just as importantly, the Devils responded to each of their losses with wins so far. They have yet to lose two games in a row. That may happen and, by then, the team will have banked points to where it would not likely be the start of a disaster. That is something, I think, to appreciate and not denigrate.
A Possible Root Cause
I think a root cause of this comes from the perspective of the Person Who Matters. There are two at odds even though I think they want the same thing.
If you are of the opinion that the Devils should be a great team and their window is now and the talking heads that called them contenders in the offseason are right, then I can understand how you may feel this way and/or would write/say something like this. Again, it makes logical sense to expect a top-tier team to win some games against top-tier opponents. So far, the Devils are 0-2-0 in those games and did not play well in either.
If you are of the opinion that the Devils could be a great team and their window could be now and the talking heads that called them contenders in the offseason could be right, but the Devils have to actually make the playoffs first, then I can understand how you may feel this take is off the mark.
I am in the second category and will continue to provide that perspective. It makes more sense to me that the first step is to actually make the playoffs first. If last season was a one-time miss out of five seasons or so, then I can see leaning towards the first category. But the Devils have not and so I am very much in a “You need to walk before you run” mindset for the Devils. If you disagree and are in the first category, then I understand. I hope you can appreciate that the Devils are about 10% of the way there in terms of securing a playoff spot already in October.
And we should all appreciate that the Devils have played seven (7) games out of eighty-two (82) in this season so far. The first month is not even completed. There will be games against every one of the other 31 teams in the league. We will want the Devils to win most of them and that may actually happen.
One More Thing
There is a related point to the complaints of the Devils can’t be called good until they beat a Good Team: their performances. The Devils have wins, but have they played well? That depends on what you consider well. It certainly has not been perfect or ideal or the classic “60 minute effort.” Even in the Devils’ wins, they have had a slow or sluggish period (the first period). They have had stretches where they seemingly cannot connect two or three passes in a row. They look slow at times – largely in part due to not having the puck since a team can only play as fast as they possess the puck. They have been reliant at times on the goalie, mostly Jacob Markstrom, to make great saves. And The Big Deal only has one (1) goal and four assists and his faceoff win rate is really low (21.1%), which is the new point of contention since he backchecked harder than at least half of the forwards in Raleigh. And Dougie Hamilton was pointless until Paul Cotter put in a rebound last night. And Jesper Bratt missed a wide open net. And Timo Meier isn’t the Timo Meier I wanted. And so forth.
There are truths to this. I am not disputing them. I absolutely believe the Devils can be better than they have been. However, a lot of this misses – maybe on purpose – the many things the Devils are doing right.
Just off the top of my head: Special teams have been a plus with the penalty kill being exceptional so early in this season. A key reason why 2023-24 was a failure of a season was the goaltenders not making enough tough stops and Markstrom and Allen have done exactly that. The defensive effort still has the Devils around the league median in HDCA/60 and SCA/60 in 5-on-5. They are not getting gashed despite no Brett Pesce, Johnathan Kovacevic playing better than expected, and a really young third-pairing that has had its issues together. Yes, the top players are not lighting the lamp as much as you would like and thrilling their owners in fantasy. Sometimes that just happens; Connor McDavid just scored his first goal of the season last night. More importantly, they are getting goals elsewhere in the lineup – the supreme and current hotness of Paul Cotter. There are others, I’m sure, but my point remains: the 2024-25 Devils have done some legitimately good things to earn the wins that they have.
They have won five out of seven. They are not just lucking into those wins. And finding ways to win even when the performances are flawed is a mark of what Good Teams do. In time, the Devils will probably do this to someone most would also call a Good Team. Look, this whole site nitpicks, hope for better, provide suggestions, and note what is and is not working with the New Jersey Devils. That is true. Yet, expecting perfection in an inherently imperfect sport like hockey may be aspirational – but it is not realistic.
Your Take
Now that you know my thoughts on this – that the Devils winning games is a mark of their goodness, not necessarily who they beat – I want to know what do you think about it. Do you think the Devils ain’t beat nobody of importance yet? If so, who would the Devils need to beat in order to change your mind? Are you more like me and think that does not matter so much as long as the Devils get wins and have improved results over the past season? Please leave your answers and other thoughts about the Devils’ results so far. Thank you for reading.