The Devils Need Brenden Dillon to Perfect His Game

Intense, high-flying hits and on-ice leadership are very helpful things brought to the Devils by Brenden Dillon. However, it still seems like he hasn’t fully found his game within Sheldon Keefe’s system.

When Brenden Dillon signed for three years with the New Jersey Devils in July of last year, I was relieved — or even thrilled — that as big of a physical presence as him would be joining the Devils’ blueline. The possibilities for Dillon seemed plentiful to me. Whether he would be paired with Dougie Hamilton, Brett Pesce, Luke Hughes, or even Simon Nemec — I thought Dillon’s physicality and track record in the defensive zone would help turn the Devils into a much scarier team.

In effect, Dillon has made the Devils more physical. He can be a game-stopper every now and then with huge hits in the neutral zone: that is not what is missing from his game. The problem for the Devils is what happens once Dillon has to defend beyond the neutral zone and closer to Markstrom, Allen, or Daws.

Evolving-Hockey

At both five-on-five and on the penalty kill, the Devils allow more chances with Brenden Dillon on the ice. Even accounting for being on the ice with Dougie Hamilton, Dillon has not had good defensive results. Of all eight Devils defensemen, Dillon has the worst goals against per 60 minutes at 2.74, just above Dougie at 2.67. Dillon’s expected goals against of 2.6 xGA/60 is a bit better — fourth on the team — but the three above him are Dougie, Nemec, and Casey (Nemec and Casey being far worse in this area). The way this pairing has been interacting in terms of goal results has me wondering what the best fits really are.

HockeyViz

Just take these pairing splits:

Dillon-Hamilton: 3.59 GF/60, 2.82 GA/60 (+0.77 net G/60)
Dillon-non 7 RD: 1.53 GF/60, 2.44 GA/60 (-0.89 net G/60)
not 5 LD-Hamilton: 3.0 GF/60, 2.18 GA/60 (+0.82 net G/60)
Hughes-Hamilton: 4.19 GF/60, 0.84 GA/60 (+3.35 net G/60)

While any other partner might not be a good option for Dougie Hamilton this season, Luke Hughes has already made the necessary defensive strides to be his partner. As a result, Dougie’s performance is far and away at its best when he is paired with 43. Dillon, on the other hand, is generally in much more dire straights when playing away from Dougie. If the Devils are going to be best set up for a playoff run, though, they need to maximize Dougie Hamilton while getting the most out of Brenden Dillon.

Watching him play, I often feel like Dillon has the wrong approach. At 34 years old, with such a strong defensive track record, I do not often enjoy watching Dillon try to stretch passes from the defensive zone slot to the far blueline, with Dougie standing still 20 feet to his right, only for the pass to be deflected or intercepted (see Dillon’s abnormally low breakout success). On the other hand, I do not usually have a problem with the way Dillon plays in the offensive zone. To me, he seems less limited there than Jonas Siegenthaler and Johnny Kovaceivc — but he is still not a very good passer.

So, say the Devils are in the playoffs with Jonas Siegenthaler in the lineup. I think it’s a no-brainer to use Siegenthaler and Kovacevic as a shutdown pairing once more. But as far as balancing defense and offense goes, it seems like a good idea to me to pair Pesce’s passing ability and superior netfront defense with Dillon’s physicality. They have not played much together, but Dillon and Pesce have kept things even (2.19 GF & GA/60), with good possession and expected goals numbers, when on the ice together. By comparison, Dillon-Kovacevic (5.37 GA/60) is a match made in hell.

By removing Dillon from some high-stakes situations, I believe he can regain some of the defensive impact that made him such an important member of the teams he previously played for in his career. Last year, for example, the Jets gave up around half a goal fewer per 60 five-on-five minutes with Dillon on the ice. But it’s not like the goaltending is letting him down: Dillon just concedes more high-danger chances and rushes than Siegenthaler and Hughes do. Also, by pairing him with Pesce, Dillon could be removed from what I see as his most harmful impact on the team: his breakout passes.

I like to look at Pesce’s style of defense as proactive rather than reactive — as in, Pesce tries to cut plays down in the neutral zone before they can develop into zone entries against. Dillon has that in his game with his big hits — and some of that has rubbed off on Dougie Hamilton — but Dillon needs a less offensively-focused partner to return to his historical defensive impacts. Pesce is already difficult for opponents to beat with passes, but adding Dillon would make it dangerous to both pass and skate through the neutral zone.

Of course, this is difficult to work out in the present moment. Siegenthaler is out, it seems, at least a month or more. As long as Sheldon Keefe rolls with his Hughes-Casey/Nemec third pairing, Dillon is going to continue getting chances to prove himself on the top pair. But if Dillon continues to have trouble preventing chances against, I would not want him on a pair that is likely to get well over 20 minutes of ice time in the playoffs. Over the next several games, I would like to see him simplify things: sit back a bit, try to line some guys up, and make sure the passing lanes around the net are very well defended. I don’t need to see him hustling up the ice with the puck or trying to stretch passes with a 70-point defenseman waiting for the puck to be moved.

If the New Jersey Devils want to make this playoff appearance more than an experience-building exercise, Dillon has to be the kind of player he was in Winnipeg. But through nearly three-quarters of a season, I do not think Dillon has meshed all that well with what Sheldon Keefe and Ryan McGill are trying to do, defensively. With his physicality and willingness to protect his teammates, it has not become an overbearing issue yet, but the blueline has its share of room to grow for this team to reach its full potential.

Your Thoughts

What have you thought of Brenden Dillon this season? Do you think this is the best we will see from him? Do you feel like the stats accurately reflect his play? Leave your thoughts in the comments below, and thanks for reading.