The Devils Should Not Be Worried About a Hypothetical Dawson Mercer Offer Sheet

The Devils should have some concerns heading into the 2023-24 season, but the status of RFA Dawson Mercer and whether he’ll sign an offer sheet isn’t one of them.

It’s not often that we get a little mid-August sizzle in the NHL offseason, but that’s exactly what we got when the St. Louis Blues dropped a bombshell early yesterday morning.

The offer sheet is a feared, but rarely utilized tool in an NHL general manager’s toolkit, and understandably so. The NHL general manager fraternity is a good old boys network, after all, and most GMs aren’t looking to upset their colleagues for one reason or another. Perhaps its because they have to deal with them in the future, or perhaps its because they don’t want a situation where one of their players gets poached via an offer sheet as retribution. As a result, Philip Broberg and Dylan Holloway became only the 11th and 12th players to sign an offer sheet since the 2005 lockout, and time will tell whether or not they become the 3rd and/or 4th players to actually switch teams should the Edmonton Oilers decline to match.

The fact that the St. Louis Blues, after reacquiring their own second round pick from the Penguins earlier in the day and making this a possibility, signed one player to an offer sheet is surprising. The fact that the Blues signed TWO players from the same team to an offer sheet is genuinely shocking. This is a league where nobody does offer sheets and we get two in the same day, targeting the same team?

Naturally, with this story being front and center during a dead period in the NHL calendar and our focus being on the New Jersey Devils, it’s natural for us to ponder how this impacts the Devils. For the most part, it doesn’t. Tom Fitzgerald has been busy over the last few weeks after the initial free agency period resigning the Devils RFAs. Nolan Foote was the latest to re-sign earlier this week, while Nico Daws, Adam Beckman, Brian Halonen, and Santeri Hatakka have also put pen to paper on new contracts this offseason. But not all of the Devils RFAs have agreed to new deals, as there’s one big one remaining.

Dawson Mercer remains unsigned as of this writing. That in and of itself isn’t all that surprising as Mercer doesn’t have arbitration rights to force the issue sooner. NHL GMs typically focus first on UFAs and then RFAs with arbitration rights before getting to the remaining RFAs, and Mercer’s next deal is the biggest one out of any of the Devils players I’ve already mentioned. Mercer has little to no leverage on his next contract, with one potential catch. The fabled offer sheet.

Mercer remaining unsigned for this long might create a little angst amongst the Devils fans, but it really shouldn’t as its not unprecedented. The Devils have a recent history of going into September with their RFAs unsigned. Pavel Zacha’s representation floated the idea of Zacha signing in the KHL, leading to an all-time quote from then-GM Ray Shero in response. On a related note, the Zacha bridge deal with the Devils was done the following day. Jesper Bratt held out into training camp prior to the 56-game season only to sign his first bridge deal a week into camp. Bratt wound up missing some regular season games early that season, but that had more to do with logistics (visa, COVID-related quarantine) than timing.

That said, I don’t really blame someone for feeling anxious seeing another team sign two players to offer sheets while Mercer is still out there on the market. The more often that offer sheets happen, the more likely they are to eventually become the norm. If nothing else, it’s a reminder that yes, you are allowed to sign restricted free agents….as long as you’re willing to pay the price in order to do so. And once one considers that price, I think its where the angst should crumble into a pile of dust.

According to PuckPedia, the Devils have $4,976,103 remaining in cap space heading into the season. That number is not set in stone as there are some options at the Devils disposal to finagle a little more wiggle room if necessary, such as waiving Nathan Bastian or Kurtis MacDermid with the intention of burying said player in Utica.

As I mentioned when I profiled Mercer heading into RFA, that should be plenty of cap space if the idea is to sign Mercer to a bridge deal for one or two seasons. AFP analytics projected Mercer at 2x$4.33M on a bridge deal and 6x$6.69M on a long-term deal. Obviously, a longer term deal is less likely for a variety of reasons, with the two biggest ones being Mercer himself coming off of a down year and the Devils having already spent their money elsewhere this summer.

Projections are just that though. Projections. Which is a fancy way of saying “an educated guess”. Your value is whatever somebody else is willing to pay. This goes for athletes, movie stars, CEOs, and frankly, you and me. We get paid what we are worth, and if we’re not happy with our salary, we are free to look elsewhere for more money…..provided we’re not under contract or non-compete clauses. And while the Devils still control Mercer’s rights, he is not under contract. He wouldn’t be doing anything wrong if the Bruins or Red Wings called to gauge whether he’s interested in signing an offer sheet. That’s all part of the system the owners and players collectively bargained.

Still, I think there are a few reasons why its not really worth getting concerned about a hypothetical offer sheet that, more likely than not, is as fictional as Coruscant.

Mercer Would Have to Actually Sign the Offer Sheet, If It Even Exists

It’s fun as fans to say “go offer sheet” whatever young stud player from another team is out there. There were plenty of people on these very forums who suggested the Devils offer sheet Jeremy Swayman given their need for a franchise goaltender prior to the Jacob Markstrom trade. Heck, there’s probably still some Devils fans who would like to see that move.

The one problem with that line of thought…..the player/agent has to actually agree to terms to play for you and sign the offer sheet.

We don’t know what we don’t know when it comes to contractual negotiations but it would stand to reason that there have been plenty of instances over the past two decades (and perhaps further back than that) where a team considered signing a player to an offer sheet, reached out to his representation, and was ultimately told “thanks, but no thanks” for one reason or another. We just never hear about it if/when that does happen.

We don’t know if Mercer and his representation have had formal or informal inquiries. We do know that Mercer has a pretty good situation in front of him in New Jersey. He has played Top Six minutes on a team with Jack Hughes and Nico Hischier as the top two centers on the roster. There’s a path for him to continue to improve as a player as he’s only 22 years old. There is a path for him to once again play Top Six minutes this upcoming season on a team that should be improved. Playing more minutes generally equals an opportunity to put up more counting stats, and counting stats like goals and assists are what ultimately gets a player paid. And while we’re not in the room, Mercer seems well-liked and regarded by his teammates, which does matter. I’m not saying players are looking to play with their friends, but I do think that comfort level matters, especially when weighing it against the possibility of going to a new team that might not be as good, doesn’t have players you know, or will play you further down in the lineup.

Playing careers are short. There’s a reason why I never get on players for making as much money as they can….I usually get on teams for handing out dumb contracts, but not the players for taking the money. Secure the bag. But with that in mind…..this might be an overused cliche by ESPN’s Greg Wyshynski, but it does need to be said every so often. Players don’t want to move their stuff.

Of course, this is all assuming a hypothetical offer sheet even exists. Odds are, it doesn’t and never has.

Teams Have to Have the Cap Space to Sign Mercer

As of this writing, 14 teams have more cap space than the Devils do, although I’m not including St. Louis on this list in case Edmonton decides to decline to match both offer sheets.

Teams are allowed to go 10% over the salary cap ceiling in the offseason, but that doesn’t change the fact that teams must be salary cap compliant once the regular season begins. The cap might be fake, but its not that fake where teams can ignore that.

Looking at the teams with more salary cap space than the Devils, you don’t have to look very far to find that many of those teams have their own pending RFAs they have to deal with. Cole Perfetti needs a new contract with the Jets. Thomas Harley is due for a new deal with the Stars. Seth Jarvis needs to be re-signed in Carolina. Detroit has a few big-name RFAs in Lucas Raymond and Mo Seider. Same goes for Matty Beniers in Seattle. I’ve already mentioned that Jeremy Swayman needs a new deal in Boston, and he’ll likely get one making him one of the highest paid goaltenders in the league. And while some pending RFAs will not eat up all of a particular team’s remaining cap space….Peyton Krebs in Buffalo and Cole Sillinger in Columbus being two example of this….you still have to have the space to actually do it.

Sure, a team that is right up against the cap could do an offer sheet and go over the cap temporarily. But they’d still have to jettison enough salary by Opening Night to make it work. Yesterday, Nashville had to pay a 3rd and 6th just to get Pittsburgh to take on Cody Glass and his $2.5M salary this season. You don’t think the prices for other teams to take on cap dumps only increases the closer we get to the regular season? Is that worth paying on top of the draft picks you’re surrendering to sign the player in the first place? Especially when Mercer, arguably, isn’t even the best RFA forward available? The answer is no.

Speaking of draft pick compensation….

Teams Have to Have the Right Draft Pick Compensation to Sign Mercer

One aspect that fans often forget is that you have to have YOUR OWN draft picks in the following year’s draft to sign a player to an offer sheet.

That’s why the Penguins-Blues trade early yesterday is so important.

St. Louis had originally traded their second round pick to the Penguins in order for them to take on Kevin Hayes as a salary cap dump, which is a another example of what it might cost to dump salary all of a sudden. They did not control their own 2nd round pick until they made this trade with the Penguins to reacquire that pick, meaning they were ineligible to sign the Broberg offer sheet until that pick was in hand.

Here’s a quick reminder of what the offer sheet compensation is for each level of salary, per the Sporting News.

I’m not going to do a comprehensive breakdown of what teams control their picks and if they might be a stealth Mercer offer sheet team, but it doesn’t take a rocket scientist to guess where Mercer’s salary will realistically come in, what the compensation would be, and then if those teams actually have those picks.

Let’s use the Winnipeg Jets as an example. The Jets don’t have their second round pick next year. Why? Because they traded it to the Devils for Tyler Toffoli. So if they hypothetically wanted to try an offer sheet, it would have to be in the $4,580,917-$6,871,374 range unless they convinced Tom Fitzgerald to trade them their own pick back so they could offer sheet one of his players. Good luck with that.

That said, a lot of teams still control their own allotment of draft picks. But just because they have their picks doesn’t mean they’re willing to surrender them in this manner.

Teams Have to Be Willing to Sign Mercer And Give Up the Picks

Taking another look at the teams with cap space, you’ll notice a recurring theme amongst most of them. These teams aren’t very good.

San Jose, Chicago, Columbus, Montreal, Anaheim, and Utah have been somewhere between bottoming out, accumulating assets, and rebuilding over the last several seasons. Calgary is likely joining that list as well after their teardown over the last two years. And while Buffalo and Detroit are hoping to be better in 2024-25, they’re not a Dawson Mercer away from accomplishing anything. None of this is factoring in whether or not some teams might be operating with an internal budget otherwise preventing them from spending up to the cap ceiling. None of this is factoring in rebuilding teams not wanting to spend to the cap ceiling on a team going nowhere anytime soon.

These are the teams that are typically in the lottery every year. Knowing that, are you willing to take that risk by surrendering a potential lottery pick for an RFA? Again, you have to give up your picks to sign a player to an offer sheet. There is no lottery-protecting picks when it comes to offer sheets. There is no “you can have the latest of our three first round picks” condition on offer sheet. They have to be your original picks. This is non-negotiable.

I’m not saying that Mercer doesn’t have value in this league or that he’s not worth giving up something to acquire. But other teams have weighed whether or not its worth doing an offer sheet and giving up the picks. They presumably have come to the same conclusion that they typically come to with players such as Mercer. No, he is not worth upsetting the apple cart in the old boys network.

The Devils Haven’t Boxed Themselves In With the Cap Like Edmonton Did

“But Dylan Holloway is worth upsetting the apple cart?” is a question you might be asking yourself after reading that last sentence, and my answer to that question is no. But teams do evaluate players differently. St. Louis might be really high on Holloway’s upside as a player. St. Louis might also be content only getting one of the players in the offer sheet knowing Edmonton can’t match both. I don’t know what St. Louis is thinking, and for what its worth, I think them even doing these offer sheets in the first place isn’t a great idea. But they thought enough of both players to be willing to offer what they did. In a vacuum, I’d rather have Mercer than Holloway, but the uniqueness of this situation is one that should be noted.

The Devils aren’t up against the cap ceiling to the extent that Edmonton is/was, and they didn’t have multiple RFAs remaining to be signed unlike Edmonton. Perhaps one can critique Oilers management for their past transgressions with the salary cap that put them in this position in the first place, but the Devils don’t have $3M in dead cap tied up in buyouts this season for Jack Campbell and James Neal, nor do they have an albatross contract to the extent of Darnell Nurse on their books until 2030. For all the whining and complaining about Ondrej Palat’s contract, you can’t compare the two.

Edmonton is in win now mode, even more so than the Devils. And they should be….they nearly overcame a 3-0 series deficit to win the Stanley Cup. They’re right there, and they made moves this summer to put themselves over the top. We’ll see if re-signing Adam Henrique and bringing in Viktor Arvidsson and Jeff Skinner put them over the top, but in a way, the Oilers effectively already made their choice when it comes to Holloway and whether or not he’ll be back when they brought in who they brought in. And it would appear that the answer might be no.

The Devils Have the Right to Match Any Offer Sheet

Even if the perfect storm of circumstances come into play, the perfect team comes along and they have the right combination of cap space, draft picks to burn, willingness to engage, and all of the other amenities that would pique Dawson Mercer’s interest enough to sign an offer sheet, there’s still one final trump card in Fitzgerald’s deck.

The Devils have seven days to match any offer sheet. And if they do, that’s it. They keep the player….at least for a year.

Tom Fitzgerald clearly has a number in mind of what the team thinks Mercer is worth. Mercer and his representation likely have a different number in mind, otherwise the deal would probably be done already. When I did the Mercer RFA profile, I said that I thought Mercer was probably worth $3.5M to $4M on a two-year bridge. Perhaps I’m a little low on that number. I’m not Tom Fitzgerald and I don’t have access to that information. But I’m probably not too far off either. And while the Devils don’t want to spend every last penny of cap space remaining on Mercer’s next deal, I feel confident in saying that they probably automatically match anything under the $4,580,917 AAV threshold. They clearly like the player and have the space to do so, so why wouldn’t they if things come to that?

Where things would get interesting is if another team did decide that Mercer was worth a long-term deal. I don’t know where they’d be drawing that conclusion from after reviewing last year’s tape, but bear with me for a second. Let’s say that there’s a team out there willing to sign him to an offer sheet for a 1st and 3rd round pick compensation. What should the Devils do in that scenario?

This is a business after all, and its Fitzgerald’s job to make sure all of the pieces fit in under the salary cap. Not just for this season but for several years down the road. Luke Hughes needs a new deal next summer, with Simon Nemec the following year. They have the space to accomodate all three, theoretically, but you also don’t want to be boxed into a hole. A team deciding that he’s worth the Alex Debrincat bridge deal would be an unexpected twist, and its one that I think the Devils would have to have some internal conversations on whether or not to let the player go at that point and take the picks. Or perhaps the Devils match the deal anyways, but it changes the equation for how they manage the cap in future years.

Obviously, draft pick compensation doesn’t do anything for a team that just spent the summer making moves in an attempt to win now. Getting a 2025 1st round pick wont help the Devils win games this November. But there does have to be a limit with what players are ultimately worth and there does need to be a walk away point. I don’t think things will get to that point with Mercer, but he is coming off of a year where he looked like “just a guy” instead of a special player. If some other team wants to overvalue him, destroy their cap, and give the Devils a bunch of draft picks in the process? I think its something that they’ve have to at least consider.

Final Thoughts

The simplest solution is most likely the correct one, and in this case, the simplest solution is that yesterday’s offer sheets really don’t move the needle one bit when it comes to Dawson Mercer and his immediate future with the Devils. I’d even go as far as to say its not even worth worrying about given the reasons I laid out.

Deadlines spur action, and in the case of the Devils and Mercer, there really is no hard deadline. Training camp might be one, I suppose. Opening Night could be another. It wouldn’t be ideal if Mercer missed camp with the Devils implementing a new system and turning over the roster as much as they did. But it also wouldn’t be unprecedented as the Devils dealt with this situation a few years ago with Jesper Bratt in Lindy Ruff’s first season in New Jersey. Bratt ultimately turned out fine. I don’t doubt that Mercer would also be fine should he miss part of training camp. He’s a smart hockey player and is capable of getting up to speed.

The Mercer deal will be done when its done. Until then, there’s nothing we can do other than do what we do as fans and speculate and obsess over every minute detail. One could argue the Blues threw a monkey wrench into the equation by doing what they did yesterday. But did they? And even if they did, does it affect the Devils? Most likely, the answer is no.