As the New Jersey Devils look to finish re-signing RFAs like Dawson Mercer, the team can give a contract extension to budding star defenseman Luke Hughes. This post points how awesome his rookie season was and questions whether the team should give him a big extension now or opt for a more bridge-like deal.
At this point of the New Jersey Devils offseason, general manager Tom Fitzgerald is presumably negotiating some kind of deal with Dawson Mercer along with issuing new contracts to fellow restricted free agents Nico Daws and Nolan Foote. Those three are the last outstanding tasks ahead of preparing for training camp. Something the team is already thinking about as they already invited QMJHL vet and McGill-bound defenseman Igor Mburanumwe to training camp. It stands to reason that the front office is also considering business just beyond this season. Namely, a new deal for defenseman Luke Hughes.
A quick glance at PuckPedia shows that the New Jersey Devils do not have a ton of significant free agent action for 2025. Sure, Jake Allen, Tomas Tatar, Nathan Bastian, and Curtis Lazar are entering their final season of their contracts. But finding a backup goaltender, a middle-six forward, and two bottom-six forwards is not the most difficult. Ditto for potentially replacing Nick DeSimone and/or Johnathan Kovacevic. The Devils’ major forwards and defensemen are locked in beyond 2025. The one exception is Luke Hughes, New Jersey’s only restricted free agent for next summer based on who ended on the roster in New Jersey last season.
The last time I wrote about something like this, it was about Mercer last year. I argued that he should get locked up long-term because I thought his career would head onward and upward. The Devils did not do this and that turned out to be the right call. If you want to take this post with a grain of salt, then I understand. However, short of a massively disappointing season, the future of Luke Hughes is very bright. And that will cost the Devils quite a bit of money.
Luke Hughes’ Awesome Rookie Season
After a successful sophomore season at Michigan, the Devils signed Luke Hughes to an entry level contract. After participating in the final two games of the season and putting up a brilliant season-ending overtime goal, he dressed for three playoff games. A fine start but 2023-24 was his first full season in the NHL. This would be his rookie season and he would end up playing the whole thing at 82 games. Due to a torn pectoral injury to Dougie Hamilton, Luke Hughes was forced to move up to the team’s primary power play unit. Other injuries at the blueline forced Luke Hughes (among others) to play in roles and take on minutes that may have not been originally expected back in October 2023. Still, the overall results worked out as well as they could. Consider the following:
- Luke Hughes’ offensive game was one of his primary reasons to be hyped for him as a prospect. He absolutely delivered with nine goals, 38 assists, and 135 shots on net. He finished tied in points by a rookie defenseman in the NHL with Brock Faber with 47 points. Among all defensemen, he finished in a tie in points for 22nd with Thomas Harley, Noah Hanifin, Brady Skjei, and Charlie McAvoy in addition to Faber.
- Offense is not just about points on the board, though. When Luke Hughes took to the ice in 5-on-5 play, the numbers were great per Natural Stat Trick. The Devils put up the 3rd best CF/60 of all of the Devils’ eleven defensemen last season (65.85), the 4th best SF/60 (31.42), and the 6th best xGF/60 (2.96). Often ahead of Luke Hughes in those categories included the 20 games of Hamilton, 11 games of DeSimone, 41 games of Colin Miller, and 12 games of Santeri Hatakka. In other words: Hughes on the ice equalled more offense.
- What about the defense? Again, let us go back to Natural Stat Trick. In each of those categories of shot attempts, shots on net, and expected goals, the Devils out-performed their opponents in 5-on-5 when Luke Hughes was on the ice. John Marino, Hamilton, and Miller were the only Devils to have a better on-ice CA/60 than Hughes. Jonas Siegenthaler, Marino, and Kevin Bahl were the only Devils to have a better on-ice SA/60 than Hughes. And Bahl, Marino, Miller, Smith, and Hamilton were the only ones with a superior xGA/60 than Hughes with Smith and Hamilton just edging out Luke. In other words: Luke Hughes was good for the defense last season.
- The only actually bad on-ice rate for him with respect to his defense was high danger chances against at 11.83 per 60. But even that is mitigated by a relatively lower 25.98 per 60 scoring chances against rate.
- Luke Hughes finished third for the Calder Trophy behind Brock Faber and the winner, Connor Bedard.
- Off the ice, he and his brother Jack are ambassadors of Hockey in New Jersey. The group announced on X two days ago that since the brothers started working with them, their Newark program more than doubled. A great sign of Luke’s and Jack’s character.
There is one thing I did leave out was Luke Hughes’ actual on-ice goal rate. It was bad. The Devils only scored 2.23 goals per 60 with Luke Hughes on the ice and the team allowed. Given how poor the goaltending was at times last season, I do not think this is something that should be laid at the skates of #43 alone. I also think it is partially a result of a terrible coaching decision: the Luke Hughes-Brendan Smith pairing.
For some inexplicable reason, Lindy Ruff and/or Travis Green put Luke Hughes and Brendan Smith together for about 237 minutes of 5-on-5 on-ice play. Smith would be Luke’s third most common partner on defense. That pairing was on the ice for a sub-50% CF% at 48.32%, a really bad shots against percentage of 45.16%, an equally bad expected goals percentage of 38.54% with 1.8 xGF/60 (!!!), and a heinous GF% rate of 15.79%. Yes, 15.79%. The Devils scored 0.76 goals per 60 with Hughes-Smith on the ice and allowed 4.04 goals against per 60. In raw numbers. the Devils were outscored 3-16 when Hughes-Smith had a shift in 2023-24. Given how quick coaches change things when it is clear something is not working, I struggle to understand how a veteran coaching staff thought this would be acceptable. It was not. It was also something that Luke Hughes absolutely overcame in his rookie season. An impressive feat to put up the on-ice rates did and the production he provided despite this albatross on his neck for nearly 240 minutes of his season.
I am sure some will still want to poke holes in Luke Hughes’ season. Why, I’m not sure but it may be worth exploring in a post in the future. I am prepared for snarky about comments how Will Butcher also scored 40 points as a rookie (44 in 2017-18) or how good Ty Smith looked in his first season and how the pick was made by the marketing department and how Luke only passes to The Big Deal on the power play. These comments are worth an eye-roll based on what we witnessed this past season. Luke Hughes is a far, far better skater than Butcher and Smith ever were. Alain Nasreddine is not here to coach them down or seemingly not get through to a tentative Smith. And the fault of the dull, creative-less power play post-Hamilton that featured the brothers passing it back and forth would be with the coaching staff that put the formation in place and seemingly let everyone else stand around. Are there things that Luke Hughes has to work on? Of course. That does not take away from the facts that Luke Hughes had an awesome rookie season.
The Known Unknowns for Season #2 in the Third Contract Season
That Luke Hughes had an awesome rookie season invites a number of risks and open questions going into his second full season in the NHL. It was an awesome season but one hopes it will not be his peak at age 20. Tom Fitzgerald and his staff will have to acknowledge that as great as his first full season went, there are questions for him for this coming season. Here is another list of things to consider for Luke Hughes in 2024-25 and a potential contract extension:
- With a healthy Dougie Hamilton, Luke Hughes’ power play usage is not at all guaranteed. Given that 25 of his 47 points last season were on the power play, being placed on a secondary power play unit or swapping with Hamilton as a “hot hand” for the main power play unit will likely cut down on his production and offensive impact.
- Luke Hughes’ most common defense partners in 5-on-5 last season were, in order, John Marino, Colin Miller, and Brendan Smith. All three are gone. We know the Hughes-Smith pairing was a disaster so that is an addition by subtraction. The other two, well, not so. It is an open question as to how well Luke Hughes will perform next to Hamilton, Brett Pesce, and/or Simon Nemec.
- The bigger question mark will be how new head coach Sheldon Keefe will utilize Luke Hughes. While Ryan McGill is returning as an assistant for the defense, Keefe may change quite a bit about how the team plays. Likewise, he may see Luke Hughes as someone to try to elevate other forward lines’ attack and transition game as opposed to super-charging a line with forwards known to attack and transition very well. Last season, Luke Hughes’ most common forward teammates were, in order, Dawson Mercer, Jesper Bratt, Jack Hughes, Nico Hischier, Erik Haula, and Ondrej Palat. (And out of those six, Mercer was the least effective for 5-on-5 offense.)
- The biggest thing that Luke Hughes needs to improve is his defensive coverage when pinned back. Part of this is coaching, part of this is inexperience. Keefe hopefully will help with the former. The latter is on Luke Hughes to recognize when to bail out of the gameplan to support his partner, when to engage or hold position when stuck in a defensive situation, and when to make the right play when a transitional opportunity is not there. Luke Hughes is certainly capable; more time will help him with that.
- Of course, there are two constant questions that faces all hockey players regardless of situation. Can they stay healthy? Will how things broke for the player happen again?
These points are all things that could cause the Devils to possibly hold off on an extension until partially through the next season or even just wait until the next offseason. While I believe strongly in Luke Hughes as a top defenseman for this team, there is a chance that his awesome 2023-24 may not be repeated in 2024-25. It may still be good. It may not be like Mercer’s situation where his less than impressive contract season may have cost him a huge deal. But it may be enough to make the amount and term a bit less than what it could be today. Which is important as the Devils are expected to be a cap-ceiling team now and every dollar does matter.
The Salary Cap in the Bigger Picture
One of the reasons why I think the Devils should consider an extension for Luke Hughes is because they are pretty much locked into this core for next season and beyond. The New Jersey Devils are locked into their core forwards – The Big Deal, Meier, Bratt, Hischier – through 2027. Their defense is also tied up with Hamilton and Siegenthaler signed through 2028. While John Marino was signed for multiple seasons left, he was traded so the Devils could sign Brett Pesce to a deal that takes him through 2030. Hughes (and Nemec) will likely play with these three plus Brendan Dillon for the next three seasons. Sure, there will be some turnover among depth and trades can change things. For the most part, this team is mostly put together for the next few seasons.
The good news for Fitzgerald and a Hughes extension is that the salary cap is still expected to rise. It rose from $83.5 million to $88 million for this coming season. Any further increases just adds more room to add more lucrative deals. Which could very well happen for 2025-26. As it is, they are projected to have $15.3 million in cap space for 2025-26 even if the cap remains at $88 million. It would be tight but a big deal for Luke Hughes could still fit in without too much anguish.
The bigger question is whether management and even ownership is willing to offer and commit to another long term contract. The maximum the Devils can offer Luke Hughes is eight seasons. If offered after this deal, that would buy three of his UFA seasons since he is eligible for unrestricted free agency in 2030. That would also mean the Devils will be further entrenched with this group of players. That may be more than fine since Luke Hughes was drafted at fourth overall with the expectation of being a high quality defenseman. He has shown in just one full season that he is well on his way there. It would also probably help keep Jack Hughes, the team’s best player, happy too. Which is the player I am thinking of for a potential long term deal.
Once Again: Bridge or Long Term Bet
One of the best ways to look brilliant at a GM is to basically bet on a player’s growth and reap the rewards if they meet or exceed that. Tom Fitzgerald did this with Jack Hughes. In November 2021, The Big Deal inked a $64 million contract over eight seasons. In the first year of that contract, he set the franchise record for points in a season with 99. In the second, for all of the shoulder concerns and playing through needing surgery, he still put up 27 goals and 74 points in 62 games. Hughes’ contract is seen as one of the best in the NHL. He is providing eight-figure value for seven – allowing Fitzgerald to spend elsewhere to improve his team.
There are non-Devils examples. For a defenseman, look no further than the 2023-24 Norris Trophy winner and Luke’s and Jack’s older brother, Quinn Hughes. Like Luke, he was a top-ten draft pick. Like Luke, he got five games with Vancouver after he signed an ELC in 2019 from Michigan. Like Luke, Quinn had an amazing first season in 2019-20 with eight goals and 53 points in 68 games with the Canucks. In the shortened 2021 campaign, he put up three goals and 41 points in 56 games, showing his production was no fluke. That was enough to convince Vancouver’s GM at the time, Jim Benning, to give Quinn Hughes a six-season contract worth $47.1 million on October 2021 ahead of the 2021-22 season. That put him on the books for a $7.85 million cap hit, which also bought one season of UFA status. Quinn Hughes showed in the shortened 2021 season that it was no fluke and he has been a dynamo from the back end for the Canucks since then. It is no question that, like his younger brother Jack, Quinn has out-earned his current contract.
Now the question is: Do you make a similar bet for Luke Hughes?
You could wait and see with what happens in 2024-25. Seeing how he performs under Keefe and different defensemen may impact how he performs going forward. Seeing what he does when he’s not the primary option on the power play as the lone defenseman would give the Devils an idea of what he can contribute. Seeing whether he can maintain what he did in his rookie season or if he needs more serious work on some areas as a sophomore would impact a potential commitment. There is a case to be made that a bridge deal may be a smarter move.
Especially when you consider how locked in the Devils are with their core players. As much as they could have the room on the cap, Fitzgerald has to ensure this core succeeds. By giving Luke Hughes a substantial raise for a two or three season deal would give the team some flexibility. This may be useful if things do not work out in 2024-25. This may be useful for Fitzgerald to make some moves elsewhere before paying out big-time for Luke Hughes (and Simon Nemec and, if he gets a bridge deal this Summer, Mercer). This may be useful than committing upwards of $6 million per season on the books for a young defenseman who did just have one season. An awesome season, but just one. And it would likely be that much to have him commit to a long term contract at age 20. After all, a bet has to be substantial to provide gains.
The risk: The contract after the bridge deal may be much more costly. Look at Zach Werenski as an example. After three fine seasons on his ELC where he put up 47, 37, and 44 points, the Blue Jackets signed him to a three season, $15 million contract. A cap hit of $5 million. Werenski proved his ELC seasons were not a mirage even if he suffered significant time lost in each season on that bridge deal. Columbus had to pay much, much more after that one. A $57.5 million contract over six seasons for a cap hit of $9.58 million. That’s a ton of money even if it did buy three UFA seasons. He did just have a career season in the second season of that massive contract, so he is earned most of that in 2023-24. Had Columbus bet on Werenski earlier, though, maybe he is coming to the tail end of a less pricey contract and the team could have had more flexibility instead of carrying a deal just below Johnny Gaudreau’s cap hit.
However, if Luke is anything like his brothers and you believe in the talent he has already displayed, the Devils would almost have to try to keep him down to limit his future earnings. Offensively skilled defenseman who can skate like the wind and eat tons of minutes are worth their weight in gold in this league. The vast majority of the highest paid defensemen in the NHL are the ones that can take care of business in all three zones and contribute plenty of offense and points on the board. I like Brett Pesce but a career of putting up 30 or fewer points while being a rock in the back end is worth only so much. $5.5 million per season, given the Devils’ contract for him. Expect a long-term bet on Luke Hughes to be worth more than that. Should he show that his rookie season is just a sign of things to come, he is going to actually be worth more than that on the ice. That is the thinking behind offering a long term extension now rather than in two or three seasons. Throw in a rising cap and the money makes even more sense.
What I Would Do
Personally, I would make that bet. I do believe in his talent. I do not think his rookie season was just a function of Dougie Hamilton being out for most of the season or Luke Hughes going on heaters. He is easily one of the best skating defensemen this organization has seen since Scott Niedermayer. He has already shown to be a conduit for offense and transitional player. Short of something horrid, I would be shocked if he peaked at age 20. If Luke Hughes and his agent are willing to take something like $48 million over eight seasons (a $6 million cap hit) and ownership is willing to pay, then I offer the contract tomorrow and be prepared to look brilliant from 2025 onward. If the ask is even $56 million – or a $7 million cap hit – I would even consider that. That is the purpose of this kind of a contract. Yes, it may seem substantial now. But should Luke follow his brothers’ paths, he is going to out-perform even that.
He was doing well at 5-on-5 with the likes of a not-as-good Marino and Colin Miller and in spite of nearly 240 terrible minutes next to Brendan Smith. He was putting up the numbers you would have loved to see Luke Hughes put up at age 23 or 24 at the age of 20. The future is more likely to be brighter. As much as my Mercer post aged like milk, I would go for it with Luke Hughes.
Simon Nemec – well, that’s a 2026 (or 2027) problem. I am excited to see what he will do in his second season as well.
Your Take
I support signing Luke Hughes to a big contract extension now rather than a bridge deal. I think he will make good on such a bet like his brothers, Nathan MacKinnon, Igor Shesterkin, and others. I think Luke Hughes could become a leading defenseman on this team and be among the top defensemen in this league in the near future. He may not be so far away already. However, that is what I think. And I recognize I got it wrong with Mercer last Summer so I accept doubts here as well. Still, I want to know what you think. Would you want the Devils to extend Luke Hughes to a big contract extension now or early into this coming season? Do you want them to wait to see what he does in 2024-25 first? Would you prefer a bridge deal instead, risking a bigger payout in a few years? Please leave your answers and other thoughts about Luke Hughes in the comments. Thank you for reading.