The New Jersey Devils are expected to have Erik Haula return to the lineup soon. Despite his scoring struggles before injury, there are reasons to believe his return will boost the Devils back to their winning ways.
There are a lot of questions surrounding the New Jersey Devils, as other Metropolitan Division teams have already begun making moves in anticipation of the NHL Trade Deadline. With the Carolina Hurricanes moving Martin Necas for Mikko Rantanen, and the New York Rangers acquiring J.T. Miller for Filip Chytil, some Devils fans may feel panicked that the team is falling behind. Consider Alex’s question of how the team would play without Nico Hischier (not well), and Jared’s hope that Tom Fitzgerald makes a trade sooner rather than later, and you have a good picture of where Devils fans are at right now.
The truth is: yes, the Devils cannot compete without Hischier and Haula in the lineup. But there is hope: Nico Hischier does not have a serious injury, noting a need for short-term rest. Erik Haula did not play yesterday, but he did travel — and I imagine he could be in the lineup against Pittsburgh tomorrow. So, assuming Haula will be back tomorrow, and hoping that Hischier is re-evaluated for a return on Thursday, the question for today is: how will regaining Erik Haula affect the Devils?
Erik Haula: A Defensive Stabilizer and Pressure Valve For the Top Six
To see the impact that Haula’s place in the lineup has on the rest of the team, you can use five-on-five usage stats from October to January 4 and compare them to how the centers have played since Haula’s injury. Each player has their time on ice, offensive zone faceoff percentage, faceoffs taken, individual points per 60 minutes, and team goals for and against per 60 minutes.
- Nico Hischier: 572:13 TOI, 47.54 OFZ%, 640 FOT, 1.89 PTS/60, 2.83 GF/60, 1.78 GA/60
- Jack Hughes: 640:33 TOI, 72.11 OFZ%, 400 FOT, 1.87 PTS/60, 2.9 GF/60, 2.06 GA/60
- Erik Haula: 484:39 TOI, 44.88 OFZ%, 397 FOT, 0.99 PTS/60, 2.23 GF/60, 2.97 GA/60
- Justin Dowling: 214:25 TOI, 53.09 OFZ%, 131 FOT, 0.56 PTS/60, 0.84 GF/60, 1.68 GA/60
- Curtis Lazar: 152:07 TOI, 44.44 OFZ%, 121 FOT, 0.79 PTS/60, 1.18 GF/60, 2.37 GA/60
- Dawson Mercer: 574:16 TOI, 41.11 OFZ%, 19 FOT, 1.36 PTS/60, 2.51 GF/60, 1.99 GA/60
This is how Haula’s absence has affected those rates since January 4, ordered again by faceoffs taken.
- Nico Hischier: 136:03 TOI, 44.14 OFZ%, 151 FOT, 1.32 PTS/60, 1.76 GF/60, 1.32 GA/60
- Jack Hughes: 181:54 TOI, 64.04 OFZ%, 110 FOT, 1.98 PTS/60, 2.97 GF/60. 2.64 GA/60
- Curtis Lazar: 113:57 TOI, 34.48 OFZ%, 92 FOT, 1.06 PTS/60, 1.58 GF/60, 0.53 GA/60
- Justin Dowling: 126:58 TOI, 48.39 OFZ%, 83 FOT, 0.95 PTS/60, 2.84 GF/60, 2.36 GA/60
- Dawson Mercer: 164:42 TOI, 42.72 OFZ%, 52 FOT, 1.82 PTS/60, 1.82 GF/60, 1.46 GA/60
As you can see, there has been a slight decline in offensive zone starts for Nico Hischier, while Jack Hughes saw a more significant drop. Dowling, Lazar, and Mercer’s percentages of offensive starts also decreased, with Lazar seeing the biggest drop. Most importantly, this seems to have influenced the results that Hischier and Hughes are able to accomplish on the ice. Instead of the combined net +1.89 goals per 60 top six minutes the team was getting before Haula’s injury, Hischier and Hughes have combined for a net +0.77 goals per 60 top six minutes since January 5.
Additionally, Haula played an important role on the penalty kill. Prior to his injury, the Devils had scored four shorthanded goals and allowed 20 power play goals against in 209:38 of penalty minutes for a net -4.58 goals per 60 penalty killing minutes. Since Haula’s injury, the Devils have scored one shorthanded goal and allowed six power play goals against in 46:33 of penalty minutes for a net -6.44 goals per 60 penalty killing minutes.
Back in December, I was frustrated with Erik Haula’s lack of individual offensive production. However, the reality was that Haula took on defensive situations and matchups that allowed Hischier and Hughes to function at a much higher offensive level. Justin Dowling, while he has been in the lineup for awhile, is not taking away difficult minutes in the same way Haula did. So yes, Haula would definitely like to score more upon his return to the lineup, and his line’s results were not fantastic before his injury. But sometimes, you need a sacrificial lamb to yield better results elsewhere.
Inserting Haula back into the lineup can lead to a few different outcomes in terms of roster makeup. They could send Dowling or Halonen back to the AHL. Sending Dowling down would necessitate Dawson Mercer continuing to play center. By comparison, sending Halonen down would allow Mercer to move back to wing, unless Sheldon Keefe were to decide to continue playing Kurtis MacDermid over Justin Dowling. Given Dowling’s better on-ice success of late, allowing Dowling to stay in the lineup on the fourth line may be a viable option. However, I would hope that Keefe keeps Mercer between Meier and Noesen. In my opinion, this would be the ideal lineup, based on the lines in Buffalo and the assumed return of Haula:
Bratt-Hughes-Palat
Meier-Mercer-Noesen
Tatar-Haula-Cotter
Dowling-Lazar-Bastian
The offense of this team will not get fully back to normal until Nico Hischier gets back into the lineup, but this would be a massive step in the right direction. Having the Haula line available for defensive zone draws will allow Jack Hughes to play more in the offensive zone. Dawson Mercer’s line should also benefit to some extent, but probably more from a matchup standpoint.
Ultimately, the Devils win by maximizing the offensive output from the top six and by winning the special teams battle. Bringing Haula back into the mix will allow that top six to focus more on offense than defending in tough situations, and Haula should also reduce the damage the penalty kill incurs against the team. I am less concerned with how he impacts the power play, but he should improve the offense just by allowing the team’s top scorers to focus more on those types of situations.
And, who knows? Maybe Haula was already playing through an injury, and he brings an offensive boost by returning to the level of offensive play fans expect from him when he returns. If not, it might be true that the “best” place for Haula would be as a fourth line center. To make this happen, Tom Fitzgerald would need to make a move, assuming Mercer does not continue to play well in the middle without Meier and Noesen on his wings once Hischier returns. But for now, getting Haula back is a step towards getting back to the dominant level of play the team brought to the ice until the New Year.
Your Thoughts
What do you think of the imminent return of Erik Haula? Are you excited to see him back on the team? How do you think the top six will respond? Leave your thoughts in the comments below, and thanks for reading.
Credit to Natural Stat Trick for their wonderful date-based search tools.