Nemec was drafted with the #2 overall pick a few years ago with high hopes of becoming a major part of the Devils core. This season, however, has made that dream look almost impossible.
After Thursday night’s collapse, Simon Nemec has officially played in 20 games this season for the New Jersey Devils. Not all of those are recent, he played in 9 games to start the season in October before being sent to Utica. He then was called back up for the February 6th game against Vegas, and he has played in 11 games since. Nonetheless, 20 games is a quality sample size for a player to see how they are doing, and the 11 recent games are more than half of the overall total, so how he has been playing recently has more of an impact on his overall numbers.
And, as you can probably guess, his overall numbers have been terrible. He has arguably been the worst player on the roster this season among any player who has played at least 100 5v5 minutes. It is not a given, there are a couple of others who are also at or near the bottom of most statistical categories, but Nemec is among them, and that is a big problem for the former #2 overall pick who was unhappy in the AHL. Well, here is he, and unlike last season where we saw some real promise, this season we have seen nothing but disappointment.
To highlight his disappointing play, here are some of his numbers and ranks among Devils skaters who have played at least 100 5v5 minutes, thanks to Natural Stat Trick. There are 23 total skaters on the list:
As you can see, these numbers are particularly poor. Out of 23 qualified players on the Devils, he ranks 22nd or 23rd in all of these stats, offensive zone faceoff percentage not included. He regularly crosses paths at the bottom of these charts with Kurtis MacDermid, who is the only other player to rank 23rd when Nemec does not hold the distinction. It is one thing for MacDermid to be there, many of us expect him to be at or near the bottom of the team in these stats, and he is not expected to be anything great. Nemec, however, has high expectations. He was drafted very high, with the expectation of one day becoming a top pairing, shutdown defenseman. Yes, he is still young and no one expects him to be that good yet, but this is so far from that goal that it seems impossible at this point.
I also threw in OZFO% to highlight that despite the poor stats, Nemec is basically being sheltered. 6 out of 10 faceoffs he is on the ice for take place in the offensive zone, so he is regularly being given a cushion on the ice, and does not have to start pinned back in the defensive zone that often. This should give him a boost to his stats, as he should be on the ice for more goals for and fewer goals against simply by where faceoffs are occurring. But his numbers show that the team is consistently hemorrhaging ice when he is out there, and the opposition is scoring much more regularly than the Devils are when he is out there, despite these advantageous zone starts. This is a problem.
At this point, it is becoming tougher and tougher to see a bright future for Nemec here in New Jersey. It is honestly tough to ever see him become a top pairing defenseman, but he is still only 21 years old, and defensemen take longer to develop than forwards, that has always been true. So the book is far from closed on him. But to be this bad this season, after having a decent rookie season last year, is really discouraging. He was already disgruntled with spending so much time in the AHL this season before his call up back in February, so he was already unhappy. Then he gets his chance, and this is what he has done with it.
Unless something drastically positive happens over the rest of the season and/or in the playoffs, it would be tough to imagine Nemec returning to New Jersey next season. I could definitely see Fitzgerald trading him and trying to salvage something from him. It would be a sell-low kind of deal, but he almost certainly needs a change of scenery and new coaching to turn his career around, and the Devils might feel they need to get whatever they can for him and just cut bait. I hate to say it because missing on a #2 overall pick is brutal and can set a franchise back years. Nemec as a top defender on this team and a key piece of the core would have been a massive boon and would have made this team even more dangerous for the next decade. Now, however, they could have to see what else is out there and patch it up the best they can.
I hope I am wrong, and I hope Nemec can turn it around and become a key piece of the blue line for the Devils like they envisioned when they drafted him. But the way he has played this season has made that dream look so far from reality that I am not sure it can ever be revived. Let’s see what he does the rest of this season and in the playoffs, but they could be the last games Nemec plays in the red and black.