The Next NHL Expansion Process has Begun; Let’s Talk About It

As the NHL training camps began last week, Andy Strickland dropped a big bit of league news: the NHL is planning to begin the process for expansion again. This post goes into all of the common questions about expansion, why Houston and Atlanta may be first, and more.

The preseason games begin tonight for the New Jersey Devils. The first signs of what Sheldon Keefe will do behind the bench will be on display. For some, it is debut in Devils black and red. For others, it is an opportunity to get future playing time, whether it is in Utica or New Jersey. For a few, a contract is at stake. And as much as that all will begin, I want to direct your attention to a league-related matter. Expansion. It’s happening again.

Andy Strickland of Bally Sports Midwest, radio host on 590 AM, and the co-host with Cam Janssen on the Cam and Stick podcast is a plugged-in reporter. As such, he put a very important statement on X on this past Thursday morning:

This is not speculation or rumor either. There is plenty of smoke to this fire, especially with the names Strickland included: Tillman Fertitta and Vernon Krause. Let us walk through the common questions and reactions that will come with this kind of news.

The NHL is expanding again? Why?

This is what growing the game looks like for the NHL. There are super-rich people who want to be involved in the NHL, there are areas not served by NHL hockey, and the powers that be – the Board of Governors – think there is enough to sustain more teams.

Don’t they just want the expansion fees?

Given that the expansion fees are north of $500 million – Seattle’s fee was $650 million – yes, that is a significant part of why this is happening. This is a massive lump sum that goes to the league. A sum that is likely going to increase as interest in the league continues to attract people willing to pay it. Leaving that money on the proverbial table is foolish for a professional sports league.

Another reason why I think expansion is starting again is that the last two expansion attempts have been wildly successful. Las Vegas and Seattle have been great additions to the league and balanced out a conference format that left two teams short in the West. Thanks to the NHL’s expansion draft rules, detailed as they may be, those teams were far more competitive from the get-go. Which helped the fanbase develop and support a team that is not going to spend the first few years of its existence getting wrecked on a nightly basis. Las Vegas already has a Cup and the T-Mobile Arena has been a big draw from the start. Seattle is three seasons in, made the playoffs once, and has averaged at least 17,000 fans per game – more than the capacity of some arenas (e.g. The Rock). Those two succeeding fairly quickly build up markets in Las Vegas and Seattle and furthers the desire to add even more. Especially if the new owners making bids follow in their footsteps.

The last time the NHL expanded to 30 teams, they added four teams over a three-season window. They often added teams in pairs or groups too. That Las Vegas came in 2017 and Seattle in 2021, two more in coming years is actually somewhat spread apart given NHL history.

Two more teams would make the league have 34 teams 34 teams! 32 was perfect! When does it end?

And over six years ago, 30 teams was perfect to many. So it goes.

When it ends will depend on how much the NHL covers and how many want to buy in that the NHL would like to have join the Board of Governors, the people who own the teams and run the league. Since the NHL has seven teams in Canada, there are several American markets the NHL has not been able to service. Which is why they need to expand to do so and increase their profile, their business, and their game.

But why Atlanta and Houston? Why not Quebec City? Why not Hartford? Why not put a team where hockey belongs?

Easy. It does not benefit the league to go back to QC or Hartford.

For starters, those cities mentioned, often in these discussions, are small. The Quebec City metropolitan area – city and surrounding suburbs, towns, etc. – is roughly 840,000 people. Which is about the same size as Winnipeg, who got a team because the then-richest man in Canada bought up the Thrashers. The Hartford metropolitan area is roughly 1.48 million people. That seems like a lot until you see the other two cities mentioned. Both are far smaller than the greater Houston area, which is roughly 7.1 million people; and the greater Atlanta area, which roughly 6.3 million. Eyeballs are still eyeballs, people are still people, and there are a lot more of each in Houston and Atlanta than Quebec City or Hartford or even Kansas City. Even if everyone in QC and Hartford get into hockey and support their supposed teams – a questionable thought given how minor league hockey has not really stuck in either place – it is just not enough people.

Not to mention the advertisers and network people will point out how close those two cities are to bigger markets (Montreal, Boston/New York) whereas Houston and Atlanta are not really covered. No, Dallas is not right next to Houston. Based on Neilsen’s Designated Market Ranking from 2022-23 – this is what is referred to as the market area – Atlanta and Houston are top-ten markets in the entire country on their own. They do not have NHL teams. If you want to know why the NHL was so particular about making Phoenix/Arizona work, that market is 11th on that list. Why did Seattle get a team? That they are 12th on the list is a reason as to why. Why so much focus on Chicago and Philadelphia getting national coverage? They are third and fourth. That chart explains quite a bit about what the league does and where they want to go. That Houston and Atlanta are not covered and are so large areas to generate new fans (not to mention people from hockey areas who have moved there) are chief reasons why the NHL would want to consider expanding there instead of revisiting the past.

By the way, Canada has a disadvantage that could keep the nation from getting an eighth NHL team: the currency. The Canadian dollar is weak compared to the American, which is what the players get paid in and the owners try bring in. When it was especially weak, the NHL realized that all of their Canadian franchises outside of Toronto and Montreal were not safe about a decade and a half ago. Things may be better now, but adding in a small area compared to larger American cities not reliant on a conversion rate to be favorable in a country already bought into the sport is likely something the NHL does not want to do. Of course, a super rich owner may get them to change their minds but it will be an incredibly difficult bargain.

I understand there will always be older fans and hockey hipsters that want the Fleur-de-lis to return in place of a jersey stripe or The Whale to resurface. It is not good business or good for the point of even growing the game to try to resurrect past franchises that ultimately failed where there has been no serious attempt to return them.

Why not a second team in Toronto?

Is that you, James Mirtle? If so, thank you again for bringing me aboard in 2008!

But seriously, Toronto could likely support two teams. Canada’s biggest city has a population a lot closer to the size of Houston and Atlanta at over 6 million people. And hockey is an institution in Toronto. There are three big issues. The first is that Toronto is already deeply into the sport and into hockey. The game is not really expanding by adding a second team to a place already well-served by hockey.

The second is where exactly would this second team be. The Maple Leafs are in downtown Toronto. Specifically by the Harbourfront. A big city can have different districts and neighborhoods that can sustain its own support for a team. Like how Queens handles the Mets and the Bronx handles the Yankees. But even if midtown Toronto or surrounding cities like Mississauga, Markham, Brampton, Scarborough, Richmond Hill, or even more distant locales like Oshawa, Kitchener, Guelph, or Hamilton (this is usually the one I keep seeing when Toronto’s second team is dreamed about) can support a team, is there even room to build an NHL-sized arena there? The areas seem so developed that it would take a ton of cash just to get the rights to the land, much less zone it and build it for an NHL-quality arena.

The third is that the Maple Leafs would likely do whatever they can to ensure its own market and fanbase is not undercut by a second team. Maybe this is not an issue today as the Leafs have been real good in the regular season. Back when they were truculently missing postseasons under Burke, a second Toronto team could siphon fans and sponsors away. Either way, the Maple Leafs are not likely going to take the risk and therefore ask for a king’s ransom for the right to even play nearby. This is something very familiar to the New Jersey Devils. When the Rockies moved to New Jersey, Dr. McMullen had to pay out large fees to Our Hated Rivals, the Islanders, and Philadelphia as the Devils were entering their areas. Fees that totaled $12.5 million; larger than the actual cost McMullen had to pay to own the franchise. Assuming that was paid in 1981 dollars, that’s $43.28 million in today’s currency. Toronto could demand far, far, far more money than that for a second Toronto team to be within the greater Toronto area. (And this is not even considering if Buffalo would argue a second Toronto team is in their area of influence) As it is, if the cost to get the NHL to consider adding a team costs half of billion dollars now (and this could rise with this round of expansion) and considering the costs to get an arena built and get a team up and running, a potential relocation payment to Toronto could make a possible second Toronto team cost at least billion dollars just before a puck is even thought about dropping for them.

In short, you would need to be one of the richest people in the world to make this happen and be willing to go through a lot to do so.

Great, markets, money blah blah blah what about the game? Why can’t Bettman focus on making the game better?

This is how the NHL can make the game better. Sure, the expansion fees go right to the league, but two new franchises generating revenue increases the pie of hockey-related revenue. That is what drives the salary cap. More revenue means a higher cap means more money for teams to spend on players.

Speaking of players, two new franchises mean 20-23 new jobs for players. The NHLPA is not going to say no to more members. It also means more opportunities for players on the fringes either in European leagues or American minor leagues. It can also drive growth for the minor leagues since the NHL team may want their own AHL affiliate team – which is another team and more jobs for players. That may even cascade down to the ECHL, where many NHL teams have affiliates as well.

Those who want new ideas and voices behind the bench and in front offices also benefit. More jobs allows that to happen instead of waiting for a current team to break the mold. Plus, teams coming in new to the league may be more willing to try some different things in coaching and management that other organizations took a while to catch up in.

Further, plenty of franchises have some kind of hockey component of their community outreach. Sponsoring and/or running youth teams and hosting leagues literally grows the sport at a grassroots level. One of the biggest obstacles for getting into hockey is ice time and rink availability. A NHL team can and has driven that. In fact, it is one of the reasons why you are starting to see more players come from the Sun Belt and California. Even Arizona got this right amid the everything else they did not.

I am not sure what the NHL can do to make the game better in place of what adding two more teams can do. It is not as if the NHL will have money left over from not expanding from the expansion fees they are not getting. I am sure there are plenty of things and ideas, but expansion helps grow the game – and not just for the NHL.

Great for the long term but the talent pool is going to be diluted! There is no way there are two other NHL teams worth of talent out there or in a few years!

I think there is. Again, assuming the NHL does an expansion draft for Houston and Atlanta like they did for Las Vegas and Seattle, the expansion teams will not be a bunch of cast-offs, new guys, and tweeners trying to survive. There will definitely be players at a NHL level on the teams.

Further, hockey is in a place of growth not just with the NHL. College hockey in America is growing despite the costs and the niche nature of the sport revenue-wise. Since 2020, Division I hockey has added Long Island University, University of St. Thomas (Chase Cheslock plays here), Stonehill, Lindenwood, and Augustana with Robert Morris and University of Alaska-Anchorage returning to Division I. Binghamton and Tennesse State are looking to join them soon. That is a lot of schools adding hockey at the highest collegete level within the past four years. That aids in the development of players for the pro game in addition to providing a sport. And those teams are filling up with players from the younger levels. The development of the USHL continues to attract players from outside of America as well as inside of it. Players from the USHL can get drafted even if they are not on a powerhouse team or the USNTDP. By the time future NHL teams have to fill out their prospect pool, there will be more players ready to fill them.

This is not even considering Europe, which continues to be a source of talent. Hockey has been stable in Finland, Sweden, and Czechia (Aside: It may produce more NHL players if they stop focusing on wing play as per Jack Han’s observations.) Hockey in Switzerland and even Germany is in a much better place than it was 20 years ago and prospective players are coming from there. Should Norway’s potential golden generation kick off a period of growth of the sport, then that is another source in the long-term of where players can come from. Should Denmark’s programs improve along with Slovakia and other World Championship Division I teams, then it benefits.

The larger point is the game, despite its real cost and resource issues, is being played more and more. The overall talent pool is not going to be diluted unless the NHL decides to add four or five teams in four or five years. Even then, the NHL did not massively drop in quality when they actually did that from 1998-2000.

Which was when Atlanta was brought in – a second time. And it failed! Atlanta failed twice! Why would a third attempt work this time?

Easy. Ownership. The Atlanta Flames were a perfectly mid-tier team that was good for making the playoffs and getting bounced in the preliminary round. They were also a team that played in The Omni, which had no luxury seats to help revenue; in a city that was hit hard by economic downturn in the 1970s; and had ownership – Tom Cousins, who also owned the Hawks – that eventually ran into money issues due to those other two points (Cousins was a real estate mogul and the real estate issues of the 1970s hurt). Calgary built the Saddledome and buyers there – a group led by Nelson Skalbania – made a big splash to get them.

The Thrashers were to be owned by Time Warner – then the AOL-Time Warner merger happened and the team, the Atlanta Hawks, and Philips Arena had uncertain futures. A mostly local group of investors called Atlanta Spirit came together to buy and save the Hawks and the arena. They had to take on the Thrashers. Most in the group did not want them and when the one member that did want them was kicked out of the group, the Thrashers’ days as a franchise were numbered. Their lack of ownership support led to Don Waddell doing whatever he did there that kept the team mostly on the outside of the postseason for all but one season. When True North could not get the Coyotes, they got the Thrashers right away.

The common thread between both failures was ownership. One did not have the financial support needed, one did not really even want the team, and so their teams struggled to attract fans and be good. The one season the Thrashers were good enough to qualify for the postseason absolutely filled that arena. To turn a phrase, if you build a good team, people will come. The onus will be on who the owner is and how well will they do.

OK, so who is Vernon Krause? Is he going to be better than Cousins and Atlanta Spirit?

He might! Maybe?

Vernon Krause – not to be confused with the Krause Group that owns Parma Calcio – has made his money in car dealerships throughout the Southeast. He is apparently very passionate about bringing a NHL team to Forsyth County, which is north of the city of Atlanta proper. He calls it the Gathering at South Forsyth. It is a mixed-use development with hotels, shops, restaurants, and an arena to possibly bring in a NHL team. Reports go as back as 2023 and in March 2024, Zach Klein’s report at WSB-TV revealed that Krause has met with Gary Bettman and Bill Daly about the Gathering. It includes this telling quote:

“We will be dropping a puck for the ‘27-28 season provided the NHL votes to expand and picks Atlanta.”

That process would have to start right about now given that there is no arena yet and the NHL has to go through their processes to add another franchise. A later report from Klein in April revealed that a NHL team may not be needed to support the proposed arena. But given the earlier report, I would have to think that was the primary goal of the Gathering.

On the surface, I question how much Krause has to run a team and how much experience he has in owning a sports franchise. Then again, I do not think someone who is not serious to the NHL would have met with the NHL commissioner and deputy commissioner months before this reveal by Strickland that tabs him as a frontrunner. It is possible that he has partners with deep pockets to make it all work. When the expansion process begins for the Board of Governors, plenty of due diligence will need to be done to avoid a third failure in Atlanta. Which may have started as you are reading this post.

Wait, what do you mean the process would have to start now?

If I recall correctly, it took close to three years between the announcement of Las Vegas and them playing an actual game. The same for Seattle. It is 2024, so starting in 2027-28 means this needs to get going now.

Anyway, what about Houston? Is Tillman Fertitta the Guy?

Honestly, I am a bit lost as to why Houston has not been looked at earlier by the NHL. Even the Atlanta Flames supposedly had interest there. The WHA’s Houston Aeros were one of the few WHA franchises to last throughout the majority of the WHA’s history. They were successful on and off the ice. But when the WHA and NHL discussed merging franchises, Houston was not included and the last owner of the Aeros was denied a chance to get involved. Even being denied a chance to buy the Cleveland Barons to move them to Houston. While Houston had the Aeros in minor league hockey from 1994 to 2013, they were relocated to Iowa. I suppose the thinking was that Texas was already served by Dallas and it was not clear they could get a place to play.

I think a larger issue may have been when Houston Rockets owner Les Alexander tried to buy and move Edmonton in 1998. There is no shortage of cutthroat plays in business, when those plays do not work out, then the people involved may not want to work with you. And you need the Board of Governors to want to work with you to get into the NHL. Just ask Jim Balsillie. Alexander continued to own the Rockets throughout the round of expansion at that time, so that may explain why Houston was never seriously sought after.

That all changed in 2017 when the Houston Rockets and the arena they play in, the Toyoya Center, were sold by Alexander to Tillman Fertitta. The sale was a reported $2.2 billion. Immediately, that confirms that Fertitta has the money to run a major sports franchise in this country. To further confirm it, look at the Rockets. While the Rockets have improved to being “mid” in 2023-24, funding has not been an issue. The Rockets salary cap for next season is over $168 million with one (1) Fred VanVleet making $42 million just on his own. Yes, he can handle a NHL salary cap a bit less than half of that total. Another sign of confirming his financial power: he is looking to bring the WNBA back into Houston. Which is going to be more costly than it was in the Pre-Clark Era. Unlike Krause, there should be no question as to whether Fertitta can handle the costs.

That Fertitta is also a NBA owner means he is already aware of a number of the NHL Board of Governors already. There are NHL owners that also own NBA teams and so there are some people in the room who know what it is like to work with Tillman Fertitta. If that is a positive feeling, then he may already have people ready to vouch for him.

And is Fertitta really interested in the NHL? Absolutely. Per this article by Kayla Douglas back in April at the Score, Tillman was quoted back in 2017 after buying the Rockets that he would love to put a NHL team in the Toyota Center right away. It was not a passing feeling. The Score article in April confirmed that he has been working to try to get a team in Houston. Reading in between the lines of “Fertitta added that he was open to bringing in an expansion franchise or adding a team from an existing market,” he may have been in on being the new home of the Coyotes. That was won out by Ryan Smith of Salt Lake City. It is entirely possible that Tillman may get his expansion team instead. And the timing of “serious discussions” is in line with what Krause talked about with the Gathering in South Forsyth and the expansion talks about it.

In short: Yes, Fertitta is the guy. If he is serious and the NHL is serious about Houston, then he is the guy. Easy.

It sounds like you are more positive about Houston than Atlanta. Are you?

I am. Again, Fertitta has the experience, an arena, and the money to run a team in a big market. Krause is more of an unknown and there is no arena there right now. Which is a little more than concerning considering what failed Atlanta twice before. The Board of Governors may have to vet the process more for Atlanta. And maybe consider some alternatives. Like bringing in Houston first and then Atlanta later. Or consider some other cities in case it is not ready just yet.

Where else would you even put a NHL franchise?

Honestly, if someone is willing to give me upwards of a half-billion dollars, then they have to be heard at a minimum. Even if the location or the plan is not the best. Even if this round of expansion talk is just for Houston and Atlanta, it behooves the league to at least consider some other area for if/when the NHL goes to 36 or 40 teams. Here are a couple off of the top of my head:

• Phoenix. The NHL failed hard here. After a decade or so of legal battles about owners and keeping the team in the area, the league paid Alex Mereulo just to go away and gave the Coyotes to Smith for Utah. That said, Phoenix is a city almost as large as Atlanta and the market size is just outside of the top ten in America. This is a city too big to ignore forever. It will take time for the market to recover, though. As well as find a proper owner that may do things like pay bills on time and put an arena where people in Arizona can go to. And if Phoenix Suns owner Mat Ishiba wants to be that guy, then that may hasten the process. I do not think the NHL gets to 40 teams without a team in this area.
• San Diego. Should the NHL want to start to make inroads in going south of the U.S. border, San Diego is a good place as any. The metropolitan area is over 3 million people, putting it on par with Denver, Tampa Bay, and Minneapolis. The Nielsen market area is around the same level of Nashville, Salt Lake City, and Columbus. There is no competition for winter sports. If someone rich is willing, then California could have a fourth team – and it would make sense.
• Portland, Oregon. Should the NHL go to the West Coast again, then Portland may be a more traditional fit. The Winterhawks have played in the WHL forever there so there is a hockey history. The market is similar in size to St. Louis and Raleigh too; and the metropolitan area is large enough at about 2.5 million. Giving Seattle a more natural rival is another plus. The big question: Do the Trail Blazers want to share their arena with a hockey team? My understanding is no, but that is something that ownership may sort out.
• Orlando. Its market size is just above Miami’s, it’s metropolitan population is close to 3 million which puts it just outside of the top 20 in the country, and there are already pro sports teams in the area that show it can work. It may be too close to Tampa Bay; that could incur additional cost. Yet, if the NHL is going to put teams in Houston, Atlanta, and Phoenix in the future, then they need to look at cities of these sizes. It helps that Florida has been growing too.
• San Antonio. Likewise, Texas has been growing. While Austin has seen growth, so has the southern city well away from Houston – enough to be more than Austin and right around the size of St. Louis. Like San Diego, can help the presence of the league go down South further. San Antonio’s market size is about the same as San Diego’s soon. If the NHL is planning for 40 teams long term, they may need three Texas teams to do it. The success of the Spurs franchise in basketball shows that the city can get behind a well-run organization.
• Cleveland. Don’t laugh. They just averaged 10,000 per game for their AHL team last season, setting a league record within the past 25 years. The market area is in the top-20 in terms of population. If the AHL team can do this well, then NHL hockey may do a better job than the Barons did in the 1970s. There are downsides. The metropolitan area is about the same size as Columbus, the league may feel Columbus is going to be their Ohio team, and Cleveland may be too close to Pittsburgh to make putting a team here more expensive than just granting a franchise.
• Other cities possibly in the field: Indianapolis (similar city size to other teams, but already nestled in between St. Louis, Chicago, and kind of Columbus); Kansas City (same but more leaning on St. Louis); New Orleans (great geographical footprint fit, but smaller city and market than you’d think, it would be like adding another Buffalo); Milwaukee (same, except the Wild become an immediate rival); Austin (same argument as San Antonio but will city keep growing? An arena will need to be built too); Sacramento (San Jose may have an issue with this); Cincinnati (another team in Ohio but could pull in attention from Kentucky and Indiana) – By the way, most of these cities are bigger than Hartford and all of them are bigger than Quebec City.

Even an outsider like me spitballing ideas gets the NHL to 40 teams and that does not even consider other outside-the-box ideas that a super-rich person/group would want the league to entertain. Like Las Vegas. Las Vegas, the city proper, is not that big and largely leans on tourists. But the NHL hit big by being the first major pro sports team to get there and establish themselves and now it is hard to see the league without the G-Knights.

I am still not convinced. I still don’t like this. But it’s happening. What’s next?

We wait. We wait until the NHL’s Board of Governors and their staff do their work. They will need to vet the owners wanting to buy in, secure their payments, determine if the arena and market are receptive, and a whole lot of other factors that will determine if the Board of Governors want to increase their group.

I will add one final note: The NHL is finally in a stable place. For the longest time I can remember, there has usually been a team or two (or more) that has some kind of instability. In my life time: Quebec and Winnipeg moving to Denver and Winnipeg, most of the Canadian teams at risk when the Canadian dollar fell hard compared to the America dollar, Les Alexander nearly sniping the Oilers, most of Arizona’s existence since the 2000s, seeing Atlanta go to Winnipeg, Pittsburgh nearly going bankrupt, the Islanders’ debacle of replacing Nassau, New Jersey threatening a move to Nashville, and Ottawa’s arena future. All of that is not an issue. It is, to a degree, calm. Which is all the more reason to look ahead.

I know this was a lot of thoughts and opinions and educated guesses and even some uneducated guesses about the NHL, what I think their current plans for expansion, why they are doing it, and where else they could go. Even if you do not like these plans or that this is happening, I still suggest making peace with it because it is way more likely to happen than not at this point. These conversations do not start within the league’s bosses, and do not leak out to sources like Andy Strickland if it was not happening. My last suggestion: Please come up with some actual identities for the teams in Houston and Atlanta instead of a lame-duck HC. (Come on, Utah.) This is not European pro hockey or the PWHL.

All that said, what do you think about the NHL expanding? Do you think Houston and Atlanta make sense? Does it make sense with Tillman Fertitta and Vernon Krause? Who else do you expect to step up and make a bid for a team? Will we see 40 NHL teams by 2040? What factors do you think the NHL should look at before putting a team there. Please leave your answers and other thoughts about NHL expansion in the comments. Thank you for reading.