Jesper Bratt has been one of the most productive wingers in the NHL over the last three seasons. This post provides the facts and the perspective at how much he has put on the board.
Jesper Bratt turned 26 at the end of July. I would like to think he would regard the 2023-24 season as a failure as the New Jersey Devils missed the playoffs. However, if he feels it was successful then he has every right to do so. Because he would be right. Of all of the actual problems the Devils has last season, Jesper Bratt was the least of them. We named Bratt as the MVP of the season. He more than fulfilled the first year of his current contract with a career high 83 points in 82 games. He also was the subject of some online discontent when the NHL’s website listed the top 20 left wingers and did not include the Devils winger. This post is not so much a repudiation of that list but a celebration of the winger’s production and a good reason to recognize some perspective.
Jesper Bratt has been a point machine for the Devils. While his first three seasons saw him put up modest totals in the 30-point range and his fourth was that COVID-shortened campaign, Bratt broke out in a big way in the 2021-22 season. His ice time jumped up, he nearly doubled his career high in shots, and more than doubled his career high in points with 73. That was how he ended a bridge deal. For 2022-23, Bratt signed a one-year deal to avoid an arbitration hearing. This was interpreted as Bratt betting on himself at $5.45 million – a number I’m sure Dawson Mercer and his agent is aware of. He put up 73 points again. The only downside to that campaign was an underwhelming playoff run. (OT in Game 3 certainly was not but he wasn’t producing as you and I would have liked overall) Bratt still got paid in the 2023 offseason with a $63 million contract over eight seasons. The first season of that contract was last season, whereupon he put up his career high of 83 points. For those last three seasons, in arguably some of Bratt’s peak years age-wise, the winger put up 85 goals and 144 assists for 229 points combined over 240 games.
Is that a lot? Yes. This is where some perspective comes into play. For starters, only 30 players in the entire NHL put up more than 229 points over the last three seasons. An amount that put Bratt ahead of the likes of Brady Tkachuk, John Tavares, Filip Forsberg, Zach Hyman, Anze Kopitar, Brad Marchand, Jonathan Huberdeau, Carter Verhaeghe, Claude Giroux, Jonathan Marchessault and Evgeni Malkin among others. It is also an amount that no New Jersey Devil surpassed over the last three seasons. The Big Deal, Jack Hughes, put up exactly 229 points (96 goals, 133 assists) in 189 games. Impressive – but not more than Bratt. The main point is that Bratt really has been a point machine.
This number is even more exclusive if we filter out positions. Bratt is listed as at NHL.com as a left winger. Among left wingers, Bratt is 9th in the entire league in combined points from 2021-22 to 2023-24. This is a bit of an odd filter as Bratt has lined up at right wing a lot for the Devils. If we compare him to other right wingers, then he would be sixth – ahead of Clayton Keller and well behind William Nylander. Points may not be everything but they mean a lot for a scoring winger and scoring is one of the more difficult and easily one of the most valuable things a player can do in the NHL. His point production means that Bratt being among top tier scoring wingers based on how he has performed on the ice.
Bratt’s last three seasons is even more impressive if we just look at 5-on-5 production. Something we can easily do at Natural Stat Trick. Producing in the most common situation in hockey is valuable and that has been where Bratt has shined relative to the rest of the league. He has put up 57 of his 85 goals and 86 of his 144 assists in 5-on-5 play for a total of 143 points. This is the 14th most in the entire league regardless of position. Bratt is just ahead of Kirill Kaprizov, Brayden Point, William Nylander and all of the other players I mentioned in the last two paragraphs. The 13 ahead of him are a who’s who of the NHL – as are several of the people behind Bratt. And, again, no Devil comes close to his 143 points in 5-on-5 play. Nico Hischer and the Big Deal have 126 and 121, respectively, over the last three seasons. Great, but still behind #63. Bratt’s production has been far more impressive than he seems to get credit for. You could even call it elite.
This brings me to a larger point about perspective. When you or I point out someone being in the top ten in the entire NHL at something, then we can recognize the player as a top player. Maybe for its time, but it is quick to understand. Being 31st in the NHL in scoring over the last three seasons or finishing 24th in league scoring last season, less so. To grasp how great that is, we have to understand that the entire league had 924 skaters see the ice for at least a second last season. Or 1,255 skaters over the last three seasons combined. Knowing that helps understand that being ranked 24th out of 924 or 31st out of 1,255 really is up there.
Alternatively, knowing how many players in the league actually played in the season (or on the team) makes it possible to know what percentage the player is in. With 924 players, anyone who is ranked 9th or better would be in the top 1%. 18th or better would be in the top 2%. And so forth. Bratt finishing 24th puts him in the top 3% of all players by points. For that three-season range, being 31st most in points puts Bratt in the top 2%. Again, you can even call it elite.
(And when you consider that Bratt’s cap hit of $7.875 million is within the top 10% of the NHL per PuckPedia, then this is a way to easily show that Bratt is at least producing to the level of his contract, if not above it.)
There is another way and I used it earlier in this post: comparison to others. Most of the People Who Matter would agree that the Ratfaced Thug, Brad Marchand, is rather good at hockey when he is not throwing elbows to heads (examples: one, two, three). He puts up plenty of points and is adept at 5-on-5 play. Therefore, if I point out that Jesper Bratt produced more than Marchand and is also adept at 5-on-5 play, then you know Bratt is on that level. Even without citing numbers or making a chart, you know Bratt is at least better or similar than that player in terms of production. Again, production is not everything (e.g. Kopitar’s value is being a dominant three-zone player and a scorer) but it means a lot for the role Bratt and many of these other players at this end of the scoring charts. It also makes for some fun points. For example, Bratt has put up more on the board than Matthew’s less successful brother, Brady Tkachuk, and for slightly smaller cap hit.
That all said. Why is there not as much excitement for Jesper Bratt? The facts show that he is one of the highest scoring wingers in the entire NHL. Alas, excitement is a feeling and feelings do not care about facts. A couple of reasons come to my mind as to why that may be.
- For the People Who Matter, they may still be worried or anxious about his not-good playoff run in 2023 where the scoring winger did not score very much. He can produce in the regular season but what about the playoffs?
- For many others, they may point to the lack of playoffs period. That is not so much Bratt’s fault alone. He played in one (1) playoff game in 2018 and then 12 games in 2023. The Devils, despite the talent they amassed, have not made the playoffs at all in five of the seven seasons Bratt has been in the league. (And five of the seven seasons Hischier has been in the league and four of the five seasons The Big Deal has been in the league, etc.) It is hard to generate excitement for a player if the team is not even finishing in the top half of the league. Related: Tom Fitzgerald really needs the team to make the playoffs in 2024-25.
- Additionally, other Devils are seen as stars – which makes it harder to include #63 in the spotlight. The Big Deal and Luke Hughes already made the cover of EA SPORTS’ NHL series. The team has leaned on
Professor Dougie D. AdminDougie Hamilton for their own promotions. Nico Hischier has the Look and does promotional ads for his country, Switzerland. There is only so much attention to go around. - He just isn’t big enough or tough enough or North American enough or tall enough and other traits I think are silly but some hockey fans are still set in their Cherry ways. Bratt may have put more points on the board but Brady Tkachuk is larger so somehow that is better to some.
All the same, similar to what I wrote about Jack Hughes earlier this Summer, the better move is to appreciate the player for who he is instead of wishing he was something he is not. Bratt is a high scoring winger. He has clip after clip after clip of sweet goals. He has been earning his big contract right away. Jesper Bratt is a great winger. He is a point machine. Thank you for reading.