After acquiring Jacob Markstrom from the Calgary Flames, the Devils were unable to get the other big goalie prize of the summer in young Yaroslav Askarov.
You can’t have all of them.
While some may have been putting a lot of hopes into the New Jersey Devils grabbing Yaroslav Askarov last week, I was not expecting Tom Fitzgerald to swing the second big goalie trade of the 2024 offseason. With Askarov going to the Sharks, as Mike Grier says that he will battle Vitek Vanecek and Mackenzie Blackwood for an NHL role during training camp, some fans may find themselves feeling like they have missed out on a “can’t miss” goalie prospect. If he might accept an AHL assignment from San Jose, surely he would have from New Jersey — right? Even so, a look down the rabbit hole of the previous 20 years would tell you that some of these “can’t miss” goalies do, in fact, end up missing — or they don’t end up as good for as long as expected.
The San Jose Sharks have a couple years before they have to start flipping the switch from losing to being competitive. Most of their prospects are still very young, and they can afford to wait a bit longer before unlocking Askarov’s full potential. On the other hand, the Devils want to win this year. They want to win next year. They want to win the year after. Jacob Markström might only be under contract for the next two seasons, and he might be 34 years old. He is still the better option for the Devils as they pursue a Stanley Cup.
Now you might be thinking, of course Markström is a better option to win! Still, this is key to why it would have been a limiting move to acquire Askarov now. Markström would have played every single playoff game regardless, had Fitzgerald also acquired the young goalie. With Markstrom still posting elite save numbers above expected — especially on shots and deflections around the net — there was no room for Askarov to get a big role this season. Just take a look at HockeyViz’s save maps for Markström this past season — he is excellent against slot shots and only has a weakness against point shots and slap shots in the faceoff circle (I imagine from power plays), which is something that good coaches (looking at Ryan McGill and Travis Keefe, here) can work around.
HockeyViz
If Jacob Markstrom was not an elite goaltender with a long history of saving well above average numbers of high-danger shots, my tune would be different. I would have been following the Askarov rumors like an NHL free agency day — glued to the internet, waiting for each crumb of information that makes it onto Twitter. In my opinion, Tom Fitzgerald already did his job with the goaltending situation for the time being. If anything, I was probably more disappointed that Fitz was unable to grab Ilya Nabokov in the second round of the 2024 NHL Draft, but I couldn’t blame him when Nabokov was picked 11 spots before they grabbed Mikhail Yegorov, who is still a decent goalie prospect.
Still, you can’t get everyone. And I do not think it would have been a great idea to trade anyone away for a player who, at most, would have served as a backup goaltender this season. Many in these circles like to float Dawson Mercer as the bait they would dangle for a trade, but Mercer is going to be a top six forward this season. Even in San Jose, Askarov might not be an NHL regular. If Mercer was part of the asking price for Askarov, I think that would have significantly hurt the team’s chances to win this season. If the Devils had gotten to the playoffs and were suddenly forced to rely on Askarov, the team would probably be in trouble.
Heard a lot of different possibilities over the last week — including Montreal and New Jersey — but it’s the Sharks that get him
— Elliotte Friedman (@FriedgeHNIC) August 23, 2024
Do I think the Devils could have put a good package together for Askarov without Mercer? Sure, but that had its issues as well. Perhaps Arseni Gritsyuk, Seamus Casey, and a future first rounder would have been enough. Maybe Fitzgerald made that sort of offer and got rejected on the basis of Nashville’s asset preferences (see Friedman’s Tweet above). Just take a look at our Top 25 Under 25, though. As we continue to wind down towards the best of the group, consider — is this a very good prospect group at this point? It is certainly a lot weaker than it was a year or two ago. And while there are still good prospects in the mix, another trade or two will have the Devils looking rather barren in the non-NHL prospect department.
Within the frame of a Stanley Cup contention window, I think the team should focus most on what would make the team more likely to win now. You never really know how long this team will be together and competitive for. Perhaps some prospects do get traded this season for some extra help up front. Perhaps Arseni Gritsyuk joins the team after his season ends in the KHL, becoming a regular in time for the Devils’ playoff run. Either way, where this season is made or broken is probably more on the skaters at this point than any goalie concerns.
Would Askarov have helped a lot a few years down the line? Most likely, but not certainly. The Devils still have solid goaltending prospects in Nico Daws and Jakub Malek. Let’s not forget that before Nico Daws was run into the ground, he had a .912 save percentage in his first 12 games of the 2023-24 season. In the six games where Daws had three days or more of rest, he had a .931 save percentage. Five of his first nine appearances came with such rest compared to just one of his last 12. I actually believe that Daws could have been a very good backup this season — but he is probably better off handling 45 or 50 games in the AHL. As for Jakub Malek, the Devils have one of the best young goaltenders in Europe right now, who is the same age as Askarov and had a better save percentage in the tougher Finnish Liiga than Askarov had in the American Hockey League. Between Daws and Malek, I am still reasonably confident that the Devils have a starting goaltender for the future, or at least a formidable tandem.
At the end of the day, the timing was simply not right for this trade. Perhaps if the Devils had more juice in their prospect system, or if there was an odd-man out situation at the NHL level that needed addressing, they could have beat Nashville’s offer. Markström is a goalie who is hungry for another playoff appearance and hungry for his first Cup Final appearance. With how well goalies have recently performed into their 30s, I believe that Markström will balance the still-youthful speed and passion with which the Devils’ skaters play the game.
Your Thoughts
What did you think of the Sharks getting Askarov? Were you considering Askarov more of a possible move for this season or the future? Would it have been worth sacrificing competitiveness now for Askarov possibly being a better goalie in the future? Do you think Markström can lead the Devils to a Stanley Cup? Leave your thoughts below, and thanks for reading.