With the injuries to the Devils, up and down the roster, more pressure is going to fall on the top line, especially Nico Hischier and Timo Meier, to perform well. Against one of the worst teams in hockey, however, their line was abysmal.
On Wednesday, the New Jersey Devils handily took care of one of the worst teams in the NHL in Chicago. It was a somewhat comfortable 5-3 win, although it did require an empty netter at the end of the game to seal it. But the analytics show that the Devils, for the most part, handled the Hawks with relative ease, squeaking out a win in the possession game but thoroughly dominating in expected goals at 5 on 5. They outplayed their opposition in the most important part of the game, never mind their two power play goals and one shorthanded goal.
There is one interesting caveat to what I just mentioned, however. And that caveat has to do with the top line from that game of Nico Hischier, Timo Meier, and Ondrej Palat. With the injury to Jack Hughes specifically, but across the entire team in general, you would think that for this team to win games and keep pushing forward, more would need to come out of the top line. If Nico and Timo cannot shoulder more of the burden and carry this team a little further while this team is injured, then you would think that they are probably in trouble.
However, against Chicago, that line was undoubtedly the worst on the team, honestly among both forwards and defensemen, and it was not really close. When you look at expected goals at even strength from Wednesday, thanks to Natural Stat Trick, everyone on the team except three had an expected goals percentage above 54%, and everyone except the bottom four had an expected goals percentage above 62%. The fourth worst player, in terms of xGF% in that game, was Brian Dumoulin at 54.32%. The next worst after him was Simon Nemec at 62.67%. So overall, the Devils absolutely dominated at even strength. 14 out of 18 skaters had an XGF% above 62%, which is crazy good.
But that top line of Hischier, Meier, and Palat? They were underwater, the only ones on the team. Nico Hischier had an xGF% of 47.08%, Timo Meier was at 46.58%, and Ondrej Palat was at a paltry 37.47%. This in a game where four Devils forwards had an xGF% above 80%! The difference is truly staggering. The top line played considerably worse than the rest of the team at even strength. That could work in a game against Chicago, where special teams won the day, but it will not work long term, especially in the playoffs. If the top line cannot beat their opposition in those games, it will be a quick exit from postseason play.
So, who were Hischier, Meier, and Palat up against? Who did Chicago throw at them to knock them off their game? Well, looking at the numbers, they spent the most amount of time on the ice against the line of Nick Foligno, Teuvo Teravainen, and Ilya Mikheyev. And that line clearly won the day. They spent 10:31 of 5 on 5 ice time together, mostly against the Devils’ top line, and came out with a 64.29 CF% and a 73.34 xGF%. They were the only Hawks line to have an xGF% above 27%. Yes, you are reading that correctly. The other Chicago forward lines all had expected goals percentages under 27%. Meanwhile, the line of Foligno, Teravainen, and Mikheyev, who played most of their shifts against the Devils top line, had an xGF% of 73.34%. Like, what?
Now, obviously, this is only one game and a game against a really bad hockey team. It isn’t anything to overreact about. However, the numbers were so stark and out there, and the importance of Hischier and Meier playing well so important to this team’s playoff success, that I had to write about them. This is not something that can continue beyond 82 games. I am not sure if Sheldon Keefe and Co. will want to put someone else on that line besides Palat, or what they want to do, but that type of 5 on 5 play cannot continue for the top line. It has to be good if this team has any chance. And against Chicago of all teams, they were completely stymied.