This Has Always Been Nico Hischier

Many Devils fans have been enamored by Nico Hischier’s fast start to the season. He’s been this good for a while.

Nico Hischier has always made quite an impression on New Jersey Devils fans. As a number one overall pick, he has had expectations with the weight of the world on his shoulders — but he has never been crushed by that weight. This is why he is still here today, two coaching regimes later, as the Captain of the team. Nico Hischier stands for resilience and tenacity on the ice. You can see that in the plays he makes and the hits he takes to continually put his team first. And this season, his hard work has paid off with nine goals in the first 12 games of the season.

But today, I am going to argue something that you may find odd — I am going to argue that not only is Nico Hischier one of the best (10?) centers in the league, I am going to argue that he has been this good for years.

Nico Hischier’s Historical Production

In terms of overall production per 60 minutes of ice time, this is how Nico Hischier has progressed since Lindy Ruff was hired in 2021:

• 2.66 pts/60 in 2021-22
• 3.07 pts/60 in 2022-23
• 2.91 pts/60 in 2023-24
• 2.97 pts/60 in 2024-25

At five-on-five, Nico is a bit behind his prior pace this season:

• 2.38 pts/60 in 2021-22
• 2.53 pts/60 in 2022-23
• 2.7 pts/60 in 2023-24
• 1.86 pts/60 in 2024-25

And let’s not forget that Nico Hischier — as a rookie — was the center for a Hart Trophy winger. And not only was that line one of the leading reasons that team was John Hynes’s only playoff team in New Jersey, but Taylor Hall gave a lot of credit to Nico for his performance. Both Hall and Hynes said for years how Nico was one of the most impressive centers they have worked with (especially as a teenager), and prior to their departures from New Jersey, they often made comments on hoping to see Nico take the next step.

Being surrounded by very high-level first overall picks did not do Hischier a lot of good in the public eye. With Connor McDavid and Auston Matthews occupying the previous two top selection spots, followed by Rasmus Dahlin and Jack Hughes in the two following years, Nico Hischier had to do a lot to both justify his selection and look as good as other top draft picks. Nico has not only justified his selection, despite cries of hindsight about players like Cale Makar and Elias Pettersson, but I also think he looks rather favorable to the first overall picks that have been selected since his draft year. If you asked me to redraft the 2017 NHL Draft, I would take Nico Hischier first every time. This is not the first time he has played like an elite first line center.

HockeyViz

According to HockeyViz’s synthetic goals model, which combines offensive, defensive, and special teams impact alongside penalties, finishing, and passing impacts, Nico Hischier has played at this level from a young age. Was there a dip in the late Hynes years and the first year under Ruff? According to this, there was — but this was a time period marred by horrific rosters, inadequate coaching staffs, and a rather ridiculous stretch of injuries for Nico, including a sinus fracture when he took a P.K. Subban slap shot to the face. That’s not even mentioning that much of this took place around and during the Covid-19 pandemic.

It wasn’t a good time.

I just would not sell this as a “breakout” of any sort for Nico Hischier. He had 57 points in his last 62 games of the 2021-22 season, in a year where he was returning from the aforementioned string of injuries. He had 80 points in the following season, where he and Jack Hughes played as a center duo to a level only overshadowed by the top six in Edmonton, as the Devils went back to the playoffs. So, since November 5, 2021, Nico Hischier has 220 points in 226 games.

So, What is Different?

The most noticeable difference in Nico’s performance this season and the past few years has been how much more he is shooting the puck. With 42 shots on goal so far, Hischier’s shots per game has gone up to up 10.4 from 7.89 last season, over a previous career high of 9.87 in 2022-23, which beat his initial career high of 8.08 shots per game in his rookie season. With all those shots, Nico is taking more scoring opportunities for himself — and his shooting percentage has risen to 21.4 through 12 games this season. Goals are goals, but scoring goals is more attractive than setting them up.

Under the new power play run by Jeremy Colliton and Sheldon Keefe, Nico Hischier has thrived. On the power play, Nico’s previous peak scoring rate was 4.73 points per 60 in 2022-23. The small sample of power play minutes this season has him at 6.32/60, and I think a huge reason for this has been the addition of Stefan Noesen to the top power play unit. Lindy Ruff and his assistants often tried to use Nico Hischier in the netfront or bumper spots, but I have noticed Nico Hischier working more and more along the wall and in the faceoff circles with the puck, which seems to make his time in the slot more fruitful, as the team has been very fluid on the power play lately. Generating 3.35 ixG/60 on the power play, Nico is generating man-advantage chances for himself at a rate that, among current Devils, only Timo Meier has accomplished in a season before.

The Selke Reputation

Nico Hischier has had only one season where he had a negative relative impact on the team’s goals for percentage: his 21-appearance 2020-21 bubble hockey year. He has never had a negative relative expected goals percentage impact. So, as a first-overall pick who did not put up crooked numbers under John Hynes’ anemic offense, many people assumed this had to do with his defensive play. The truth was that Nico Hischier has always been an offensively impactful player. In his rookie season, his on-ice GF/60 was at +1.71 relative to the team, while the team could be expected to give up 0.4 more goals against per 60 minutes with him on the ice. That was rookie year Nico Hischier — and he was integral in making that offense click.

While the Selke talk was not necessarily deserved for a few years, the case looks more substantive today. Nico has a -1.34 relative goals against per 60 so far this season alongside a career-best -0.36 relative expected goals against per 60. Those numbers this year does mean that Nico is seeing his best five-on-five season from a defensive standpoint so far, but his point production is really coming from the power play.

Will this Keep Up?

Nico Hischier will likely be a point-per-game player at the end of this season. The real question is whether he does this by scoring 62 goals and 20 assists (his approximate present pace) or by getting more of his teammates on the board with his passes than he has been able to so far this year. And his shot has always been pretty good, but he has never sustained a shot percentage over 15%. We are still in small sample size territory, so I expect those power play and even strength production rates to level out towards his previous career numbers. However, if Nico keeps getting close to four shots on goal each night, maybe he can reach a number considerably higher than 80. I do not think he is going to have such a low assist total with Timo Meier and Dawson Mercer on his wings for very long.

But I don’t think this is Nico Hischier “finally playing to the level of a first overall pick,” or some nonsense along those lines. He has been very good for awhile, and we would probably be looking at this as an eighth straight great season if not for a ridiculous string of injuries, alongside a pandemic that began at the end of his third year. This is not a breakout season, but it is a statement from the Captain — and he’s only getting started.

Your Thoughts

What have you thought of Nico Hischier’s performance so far this season? How much better do you think can he get? Do you think he will reach a high, round number like 40 or 50 goals — or 90 or 100 points? Leave your thoughts in the comments below, and thanks for reading.

Credit to Natural Stat Trick for all numerical data in this post.