With PTO season underway, the arms race around the league continues on. Should the Devils stand pat or look to tinker some more?
Nearly a month ago, I asked what was going on with Dawson Mercer. While it may have been a bit early to ask that question at the time, it seems to have been worth asking. Since then, a couple of offer sheets have been submitted, with the St. Louis Blues targeting RFAs that the Edmonton Oilers may struggle to keep. Now, will Dawson Mercer be targeted in a similar manner? Jared recently argued that, no, they should not be worried. For the type of compensation Mercer would likely get out of an offer sheet, we would be talking a second-round pick, at the least — or as much as a first and third-round pick. Not a lot of teams can handle that, and the Devils can probably match most offers, unless someone made a ridiculously high offer that would carry an even larger compensation package. Still, while the Edmonton Oilers are strapped against the cap ceiling, the Devils would probably have enough available space over the next couple years to retaliate against any team that even offered Dawson Mercer a contract, as the Carolina Hurricanes did to the Montreal Canadiens when the latter tried to sign Sebastian Aho.
Still, the New Jersey Devils need to get their affairs in order. Camp is but a month away, and signing Mercer sooner makes it easier to juggle other questions. Jared also asked a month ago whether the Devils should add another depth forward, and it seems we are now getting to that point of the offseason where remaining free agents are taking short-term deals and PTOs. Three days ago, the Washington Capitals signed Jakub Vrana to a PTO. I fully expect Vrana to make the Washington roster, as they have shored up a pretty decent group to make another long-shot run in one of Alex Ovechkin’s final years. You can’t really blame them for trying — and they’ve juggled their situations with Nicklas Backstrom and T.J. Oshie needing to go on LTIR pretty well. I am not a huge believer in Pierre-Luc Dubois, but having him around means that Dylan Strome will likely get to play on the second line. Adding Andrew Mangiapane to a winger group that otherwise features Ovechkin, Tom Wilson, and Sonny Milano was also, in my eyes, a great value move for their situation. Now, with Jakub Vrana looking to make the roster, it suddenly seems like the Capitals have a workable forwards group. With John Carlson, Rasmus Sandin, Trevor van Riemsdyk, and the newly-added Matt Roy and Jakub Chychrun, the Capitals also have the defensive corps to play very well in front of Charlie Lindgren, who helped drag them to the playoffs last year.
The Devils have a lot to prove in the 2024-25 season. With the roster as it is right now, the Devils are putting a lot of trust in the idea that two of Dawson Mercer, Ondrej Palat, Stefan Noesen, Erik Haula, or Tomas Tatar will be able to stick in the top six. While I have Dawson Mercer as a strong candidate to be glued to Jack Hughes’ hip, since Tyler Toffoli is no longer around, the left side of that line is an issue. Is Ondrej Palat a real option if he tops out at 30 points? Would Stefan Noesen be a better option than Palat, even if it means having two righty wingers on the same line? Since my baseline expectation for Tomas Tatar is that he will not necessarily regain his 2022-23 form, and since I believe Erik Haula is best suited as a third line center, the choices are not ideal right now.
After the Devils sign Mercer, they’ll have an idea of how much more they can add. If they press all the way up to the cap limit with Mercer, or Mercer and an additional contract, they will be obligated to pay at least a few million in performance bonuses next season, adversely impacting their salary cap. That is something to keep in mind, as they could potentially avoid penalties by signing Mercer to a one-year, lower-value contract and by adding nobody else to the roster. Otherwise, they could attempt to shed salary via trade. They could send Kurtis MacDermid down, as well, which might calculate to some cap savings, as his contract is equal to the “buried threshold.” I doubt a team would claim MacDermid due to his contract, and he would continue to be paid at the same rate he would in the NHL.
Sending MacDermid down would allow the Devils to carry Johnathan Kovacevic, Nolan Foote, and an unspecified additional player as extras, on top of their current “expected lineup.” It would also allow them to keep Nathan Bastian, who a lot of fans have mentioned as a potential trade or waivers option. Personally, I think Bastian has enough tools to be a positive contributor in the 2024-25 season, especially on a fourth line featuring Paul Cotter and Curtis Lazar. Last season, Lazar and Haula did well with Bastian on the ice in terms of generating more positive offensive and defensive impacts. When guys like Tomas Nosek, Brendan Smith, and Alex Holtz were on the ice with him, things were generally not good. With those three off the roster, Bastian may very well have a good season. He just needs to stay healthy.
That is just the thing, though. Bastian played 54 games last season and 43 games the year prior. Only in 2021-22 did Bastian play a full schedule after returning to the Devils via waivers. Personally, I am worried about his health. He has had multiple shoulder injuries over the past couple years, and even he mentioned how tough the lingering pain has been at the end of the 2022-23 season. That injury seems to stem back to November 2022. If Bastian cannot take care of his shoulder, he will have his long-term health to worry about, let alone his career or season. This is a guy who has made his living in the NHL off of being a prolific hitter and forechecker. One of the players Jared mentioned in his article last month was Cal Clutterbuck, who is still without a contract. Clutterbuck would take a lot of heat off of Bastian if Nate got hurt again, and it would mean he also gets time to take care of his shoulder when the lineup needs a physical presence that is more skilled than Kurtis MacDermid.
Veteran, physical presence is nice to have in the bottom six. However, the Devils still might be able to cover those needs internally. Nolan Foote, with his six goals in 23 NHL games, is probably good enough to fill in the lineup when there’s an injury. Brian Halonen, who is a right-handed shooting forward, can hold his own on a fourth line. Personally, I would prefer to see the Devils give a PTO with the Capitals’ recent reacquisition of Vrana in mind. If Sheldon Keefe needs to plug some random guys into the fourth line, whatever. But if an injury hits the top six, do we feel comfortable with the forward depth as it is now stepping up to fill the void? I certainly do not.
Out of the guys remaining on the free agent market, I think the only players who can hold their own offensively on a second line are James van Riemsdyk and Max Pacioretty. van Riemsdyk had over half a point per game last season, and he is the only remaining free agent who can say that. Pacioretty was just a hair under there, but his complete lack of goals (only four in 47 games, with 19 assists) can either go two ways. It could be that Pacioretty is too old to score goals — it happens. But, he might have a resurgence in a full year post-recovery, and his playmaking was still there as a decent baseline for a middle six player. Otherwise, there are a few players who I don’t think are quite at their level, but could probably hold their own with decent enough veteran know-how. Those two would be Blake Wheeler — who I expect to either retire or sign with the Rangers — and Kyle Okposo, who very well may retire after winning a Stanley Cup. I would be fine with the Devils acquiring any of those four players. Aside from them? I would probably just stick to internal depth.
But first thing’s first — Tom Fitzgerald needs to lock Dawson Mercer in for the season. Once that is done, I hope he makes one final move and gets this team ready for camp.
Your Thoughts
Just over a month away from the preseason, what are you thinking about this roster? What area are you most concerned about? Leave your thoughts in the comments below, and thanks for reading.
Also, if you enjoyed my article last week on Chico’s and Doc’s respective books or the article on Jaromir Jagr the week prior, feel free to recommend any other books or historical topics that you might be interested in reading about before camp begins. Thanks again to all.