As the NHL regular season is still on a 4 Nations Face-Off break, this weekly Metropolitan Division snapshot checks in on all eight teams with how they have done this season, what has gone right, their concerns, and what is next.
The 4 Nations Face-Off has captivated the NHL world as the season itself is on a break. That will end this coming Saturday, when the league returns. For the eight teams in the Metropolitan Division, they have 25-27 games left to play. The Trade Deadline is on March 7 and then it is a stretch run to the end. There’s much to play for and time is running out. With the break in the season, let us check in to see how each team has done from the Washington Capitals to the Philadelphia Flyers and what they may do next.
Washington Capitals
The 2024-25 Season Summary So Far: The best case scenario happened and so they reign.
What’s Gone Right For Them: So many things. The Washington Capitals lead the NHL in 5-on-5 shooting percentage (10.94%) and save percentage (92.27%). Every season usually sees a team or two on a PDO bender. Washington is this season’s team and that makes up for a lot of issues on the ice.
Except the Caps may not have that many on the ice. There is some substance in their performances beyond shooting hot and getting fantastic play from Logan Thompson and Charlie Lindgren. They are hovering around 50% in 5-on-5 team metrics, which is not great but also not bad either. Their aging core of Alex Ovechkin, John Carlson, and Tom Wilson have continued to be productive. The team swung on Pierre-Luc Dubois and he has been fabulous in D.C. Dylan Strome is having a monster season that has also somehow went under the radar. He is actually their leading scorer right now. Connor McMichael has been a revelation and will likely be a part of the team’s future core. Aliaksei Protas has been a fine fit and remarkably has 22 goals, third to Wilson and Ovechkin. Jakob Chychrun has more than fulfilled what Dmitry Orlov has done in past seasons and will likely take over for Carlson in the future. Even if they weren’t league leaders in Sh% and Sv%, they would likely be scrapping for playoff spot at a minimum if not scrapping with New Jersey and Carolina in the top three. With it, they’re competing for the President’s Trophy.
A Concern or Two: Well, the PDO bender eventually ends. For their sake, if it ends, it should be soon and not in the first round of the playoffs. The last thing a team shooting hot needs is a slump in the second season and needing to figure out ways to get results in spite of said slump. And if the slump hits Thompson-Lindgren, well, then that just gets harder. There is no perfect time to cool off, but better now than in late April.
Also, adding a play driver could help their 5-on-5 performances go from just passable to actually good.
Should They Go For It?: They are going to clinch in March. Yes. They absolutely should. The thing is, they may not need a massive deal to go for it. But if they can add a play driver, then that will help their odds in the short term and the long term.
What’s Next: Maintain and do not collapse. Of note, the Caps have a California trip ahead in March as well as a nasty one to Winnipeg and Minnesota. But that’s it for real challenges. They may even face just two playoff teams in April and one of them is Carolina. The other may be a wild card. And that is a big “may” given how tight it is down there. The Caps can keep it steady from here on out.
Carolina Hurricanes
The 2024-25 Season Summary So Far: Very good but very good was not good enough so they are trying to be great.
What’s Gone Right For Them: The Carolina Hurricanes has been, well, Carolina for this season. Great 5 on 5 numbers? Check. (Aside: A team CF% of 59.16% is bonkers and nearly 4% ahead of the second best team in that stat, which is Florida.) Being a total pain to play against? Check. Loads of attempts to flood most defenses? Check. Having a good defense themselves? Check. Special Teams doing well? That’s a check for the penalty kill. Put a pin in the power play. Overcoming some poor goaltending which featured another injury to Frederik Andersen? Check. For three-plus months, it looked like another strong campaign for Carolina.
Then GM Eric Tulsky pulled the trigger on a massive trade on January 25. One that sent Martin Necas and Jack Drury to Colorado while getting Mikko Rantanen back plus Taylor Hall from Chicago. After years of great seasons ending in the playoffs, management wanted more. Adding a top ten scorer and a former Hart trophy winner is absolutely more – on paper. The goal for this season is to do more than aim for 50 wins. It is to make a run to the Cup. And they’re banking on Rantanen and Hall rentals (both are UFAs) to put a structured offense over the top to get there.
A Concern or Two: Two that have plagued past Carolina playoff runs have emerged and they are familiar to the Canes. First: the power play. Carolina’s power play success rate sits just 21st in the NHL at 20% (33 for 165). The team also sits just 20th in the NHL in expected goals per 60 in man advantage situations at 7.73. When the postseason starts, power plays can be worth their weight in gold and give a team an edge. I would like to think that played a role in Tulsky swinging that deal for Rantanen and Hall. In theory, that should help. In practice, we shall see for the next 26 games.
Second: the goaltending. The Canes sit 30th out of 32 teams in 5-on-5 save percentage with a team save percentage of 89.86%. When you add in all situations, they do move up to 20th with an 89.26%. Credit to the PK units, but the goaltending tandem of Pytor Kochetkov and Frederik Andersen has not been at the quality of a contender. Spot duty from Dustin Tokarski and Spencer Martin has not been promising. Andersen is healthy for a change and he might have the quality. But it remains a question. And Rantanen and Hall cannot make their goaltenders better.
Should They Go For It?: They already did. They can’t go back now. If they can find a goaltender, then Tulsky really should push for one.
What’s Next: The remainder of the season has three objectives for Carolina. One: Get Rantanen and Hall producing ahead of the postseason. Two: Don’t fumble away home ice against New Jersey. They have a trip to California in March and more road games than home in April, but the Canes have a softer schedule. They can’t blow too many games to the likes of Buffalo again. Three: Pray for good health because an injury to Andersen or elsewhere may put the postseason plan on their ears.
New Jersey Devils
The 2024-25 Season Summary So Far: The bounce back season happened – in spite of an extended slump since Christmas.
What’s Gone Right For Them: Not that you would believe it from the last 6-7 weeks, but the New Jersey Devils were performing and getting results like a top 10 team in the NHL. So much so that their 5-on-5 team stats are still quite good. The offense, especially the power play, was potent and outperformed opponents regularly. The defense, featuring the emergence of Jonathan Kovacevic and continued rise of Luke Hughes, has been tight. Goaltending has been very good with Jacob Markstrom and Jake Allen. When it is all working, the Devils can hang with anyone. As evident by going 2-1-1 with Washington, 2-2-0 with Carolina, and 2-0-1 against Florida among other matchups. Nico Hischier has been strong in both ends, and Jack Hughes and Jesper Bratt are top scorers in the NHL (10th and 11th in the league in points by the break, respectively).
A Concern or Two: The team has slumped since Christmas. Their shooting percentage has dropped so despite the efforts, there have not been as many goals – which has directly cost the Devils. It has appeared to rebound before the break, which is a positive. Finishing and scoring beyond Hughes, Hischier, and Bratt has been a question. Injuries to Nico Hischier and Erik Haula exposed the team’s thinness at center. Guys will get healthy but the performances still need tweaking to get the team winning more often.
Should They Go For It?: Yes. Their odds for making it are very high. The team’s window for contention is open. The need for a center and a middle six scoring winger is clear. Add those and the Devils strengthen their claim for contention.
What’s Next: The Devils will have a tougher road than Carolina with two games to play each against Dallas, Winnipeg, and Minnesota. They also have a five game trip starting after their home game on Saturday. April is kinder to them but March is going to determine if they’re battling for second or if they’re settling for third. Provided they do not collapse, they are safe; but they still have a lot of business to take care of.
Columbus Blue Jackets
The 2024-25 Season Summary So Far: Given the tragedy, this has been far better than expected. But is it enough?
What’s Gone Right For Them: The finishing. Columbus Blue Jackets can and has score goals in bunches. Enough to be tenth in the NHL in goals per game. Younger talent like Adam Fantilli, Kent Johnson, and Cole Sillinger are producing. Kirill Marchenko has been a stud up front. The Sean Monahan addition has paid off. Most of all, a healthy season from Zach Werenski has shown he can be like Makar, Fox, and Quinn Hughes as being an utterly dominant offensive defenseman. He should receive Norris consideration from how he has performed this season. Columbus sits third in the NHL in 5-on-5 shooting percentage and, like Washington, that can cover up some flaws.
A Concern or Two: The defensive side of the game has been rough. A big reason why a site like Moneypuck gives them such low odds to make the playoffs is that Columbus routinely gets worked over in 5-on-5 play. They have the third worst CA/60 and sixth worst xGA/60 in 5-on-5 play in the league. They are generally out-attempted, out-shot, and out-chanced. They bleed too much against. While Elvis Merzlikins, Daniil Tarasov, and Jet Greaves could steal a game here and there, they are usually beaten quite a bit given the team’s relatively low save percentage of 90.67%.
Should They Go For It?: GM Don Waddell already said they are buying at the deadline so they may have to. If they can get some players to lock it down in their own end, then that could help them get an edge in what will be a fierce 25-27 games. It may not generate a lot of hype, but some defensive-minded players would really help them.
What’s Next: A whole lot of scoreboard watching and pressure. Columbus has a 5 game trip to start March that includes a game in Florida and Tampa Bay. The Blue Jackets do play 6 of their 10 games in April at home, which helps. But every night could make a difference and that can wear on a team. They are not alone in this regard.
New York Rangers
The 2024-25 Season Summary So Far: After the dizzying highs, the crushing lows, the creamy middles, the big trades, and they now going to chase multiple teams playoff spot.
What’s Gone Right For Them: They got hot after a muddling first half of the season to even be where they are. They have also made a point of it to win the vast majority of their games in regulation. This means the New York Rangers have a strong lead in tiebreakers over the rest of the wild card hopefuls.
Perhaps most impressively, they have been fine after some significant trades. They sent their captain Jacob Trouba out of town. Things would be sort of fine. They moved on from Kaapo Kakko and sent him to Seattle. Things would be sort of fine. They sent Filip Chytil away for a moody J.T. Miller. Things would be sort of fine. Not fine in the standings. But they could have had their season spiral out of control from those deals and those struggles. They seemingly righted their ship somewhat. The Rangers are still leaning on their main players in Panarin, Fox, and Shesterkin. And those main players have done their jobs well. Shesterkin and Quick have been very fine goalies for NY. Panarin still leads the attack and Fox is a force in all three zones. The core is not the issue.
A Concern or Two: Well, the team earned their current predicament for some reasons. Outside of the core, the roster has problems. Mika Zibanejad has fallen off this season and, given his age, there may not be a bounce back season. Given his back issues, Chris Kreider could be the next to fall off. This makes dealing out Kakko and Chytil look odd. Outside of Fox, the defensive side of the game has been a real problem. In fact, they boast the fourth worst xGA/60 in 5-on-5 play of the season. And in 5-on-5, they do not attack nearly enough to make up for the poor defensive metrics. Which bodes badly for a Rangers team still climbing out of a hole. That is a hard thing to do in thus league. They have went 11-7-3 since Christmas and they’re still looking up at Columbus and others.
Should They Go For It?: Maybe. I doubt they bring in J.T. Miller without a desire to push for the playoffs. Yet, who else are they going to deal? Do they dangle Vincent Trochek for a bigger haul in? Does Ryan Lindgren or Reilly Smith have much value? And who exactly do they bring in? It’s not like a bottom six forward or a defenseman (or two) is going to change any fates. That said, anything to stem the defensive bleeding would be helpful. If only to help Shesterkin and Quick.
What’s Next: The Rangers, like Columbus, will do a lot of scoreboard watching. They do have two three-game road trips in March. One is a California trip that they could do well on. The other is nasty one in a week where they go to Winnipeg, Minnesota, and Columbus – and the Columbus game will be massive. April has the Rangers play four games within the division, two against Tampa Bay, one against Florida, and one against Minnesota. Ouch.
New York Islanders
The 2024-25 Season Summary So Far: From blowing third period leads to grinding results, the Islanders still do not go away.
What’s Gone Right For Them: Well, they are resilient in that they still have above a 30% chance of making the playoffs. They have stemmed the bleeding from botching third period leads throughout the first half of their season. More seriously, the team does score by committee and with Anders Lee, Brock Nelson, Bo Horvat, and Simon Holmstrom each having 15 goals or more already, the committee has some success. While reforming a blueline with a KHL signing (Anthony DeAngelo), a waiver pickup (Adam Boqvist), and a trade for Scott Perunovich does not seem smart, it has seemingly worked out so far. The team’s 5-on-5 rates are not great but not bad and somewhat survivable since they are on the level of Washington.
A Concern or Two: Mat Barzal’s injury hurts because I do think he is a player that elevates a team like this. And this team is screaming for some elevation. Ilya Sorokin has been good but a 90.8% overall save percentage only goes so far. The scoring by committee has only gone so far. It is less that the team needs a superstar but that they need something to juice up the team.
Special teams would be the thing that could really use some juice. The team’s success rate on power plays is 11.5%, the lowest in the league. The team’s success rate on penalty kills is 70.7%, the second lowest in the league. This has to be better if the Isles want to make a push up the standings in the last 25-27 games.
Should They Go For It?: Believing in rumors from a team run by Lou is what a fool believes. The latter said, the order from ownership is clear to me: always try to get in and see what happens if you do. Some may say this has kept the Isles from icing a superior team. Some forget that that Isles have been utter garbage for most of their existence since the mid-1990s and so getting into the playoffs is a success to aim for. This is all to say that they will try and it may not make much sense we but do not be shocked if they’re in the mix by the last week of April. Again.
If they want to go outside of the box, then consider an assistant coach change for the special teams.
What’s Next: The Isles will go to California in March, play the Capitals twice in April along with games against the Wild and Lightning and need to get help from others as they try to help themselves. It’s a lot to do. And I still don’t feel comfortable writing them off.
Pittsburgh Penguins
The 2024-25 Season Summary So Far: The end is nigh. Yes, nigh. As in its coming, Pittsburgh. It may not be here just yet but it is going to happen soon.
What’s Gone Right For Them: Sidney Crosby has been excellent. Erik Karlsson has been producing. As has Bryan Rust and Rickard Rakell. Most of the Name Players on the Penguins have produced. The 5-on-5 on-ice rates are actually better than you may expect for a team where the Pittsburgh Penguins are in the standings.
A Concern or Two: The team outside of those Name Players has been a mix of inconsistently effective or consistently ineffective. The Penguins plan was built around finding players to effectively complement Crosby, Malkin, and Letang. That has not worked out for this season. Neither has the goaltending. They already dumped Tristan Jarry to Wilkes-Barre/Scranton. The team remains in the bottom-five of team save percentages.
Should They Go For It?: No. Reports have gone back and forth on whether Kyle Dubas will have a fire sale. But the trade of Marcus Pettersson and Drew O’Connor suggest he is selling by the deadline. I know the Pens are going to have to rebuild once Crosby is done in Pittsburgh. Dubas may want to dovetail into that instead of crashing into one.
What’s Next: The Pens can play spoiler while also trying to survive some tough trips. Such as going to Colorado, Las Vegas, and Minnesota around the deadline; and getting one home game out of six between March 23 to April 7. Those road games include Dallas, Tampa Bay, and Florida. It may not get better soon.
Philadelphia Flyers
The 2024-25 Season Summary So Far: The retool has taken a step back for better or worse.
What’s Gone Right For Them: The Philadelphia Flyers are at least competitive. Say what you want about of John Tortorella, but the team’s he coaches tend to rally around him at first. Travis Konecny remains a fantastic player and has been head-and-shoulders above everyone else on the team. Matvei Michkov is getting his reps with 16 goals in his rookie campaign. Cam York has blossomed and Jamie Drysdale has seemingly fit in well from Anaheim. As for the future, the Flyers now have 3 firsts and 4 seconds for the 2025 draft to further bolster their pipeline.
A Concern or Two: I am unsure what direction they’re going with this retool. Or whether it is working. The temptation to blow it up is real and I can respect resisting that. Yet, I don’t think thus team is much better than last year’s or that it will be better next season. So what does one do with Travis Konecny, Travis Sanheim, or Sean Couturier? Roll them out for next season and hope Michkov and others elevate with them?
One thing is clear: they need help in the crease. Sam Ersson, Ivan Fedotov, and Aleksei Kolosov have save percentages of 89.6%, 87.7%, and 87% respectively. Team save percentage in 5-on-5 is the second worst in the league.
Should They Go For It?: No. I think they correctly understood that last season was an overachievement. I can see them moving some more players out (getting out of the Joel Farabee contract will help for the future), but not a full on fire sale.
What’s Next: Spoil, spoil, and spoil some more. The Flyers also have an interesting March schedule. It starts in Winnipeg, then they have a 7 game homestead, followed by a five game road trip with four tough games (Washington, Tampa Bay, Florida, Dallas), and it ends with 3 straight at home. At least it’s easy to follow.
The 2024-25 NHL regular season will resume on Saturday, February 22. There will be no division snapshot next Sunday. The following Sunday, March 2, will catch up with those eight days to get back on track. Those days will be filled with games that will be the last chances of evaluation ahead of the NHL Trade Deadline on March 7. Those games are as follows, with games within the division highlighted and in bold.
Schedules via NHL.com
It will be a challenge for every team to come right back in and perform right away after 90% of the league has been off since February 8 (or February 9 in the case of Washington). But perform they must. The points matter. And they especially now as the games start to run out. Keep an eye out on the standings. You know a lot of teams will. Especially the Columbus Blue Jackets, New York Rangers, and New York Islanders.
What do you make of this check-in for each team? What did I miss or get wrong about any of these teams? What do you think they need to do to make the best of the remainder of the 2024-25 season? What do you think they will do? Please leave your answers and other thoughts about the eight teams in the Metropolitan Division in the comments. Thank you for reading.