The sportsbooks expect the Devils to be good in 2024-25. Will they be right?
People have opinions about everything, but if you believe strongly enough about something, you can put your money where your mouth is and back it up.
We are a week away from New Jersey Devils veterans reporting to training camp, and with a new season upon us, you’ll begin to see various media outlets with their previews and predictions for the upcoming season. You’ll hear talk about how the Devils had a good summer and perhaps it goes as far as people suggesting that they once again “won the offseason”.
I’m not one to have much time or patience anymore for offseason championships, as the Devils have become the Michael Jordan of “winning the offseason” in recent years. I can acknowledge that I really like a lot of the moves that they made, but also not crown them for collecting offseason championship banners like Thanos collects Infinity Stones. This is a long-winded way of saying I’ve been burned too many times by the talking heads at networks like TSN, SN, and ESPN who barely remember the Devils exist if they bring them up at all. And I’ve been burned too many times by the Devils themselves in recent years for getting my hopes up only to see it all come crashing down.
That said, I do respect the opinions of sportsbooks. Probably because when it comes to sportsbooks, we’re not dealing with opinions. We’re dealing with projections, based off of the data, information, and resources available to them. While the books can be wrong, they’re not in the business of being wrong or just throwing things out there for a reaction or the sake of having a good hot take. Sportsbooks have teams of people and all sorts of information to the point where setting lines on anything is basically down to an exact science.
The sportsbooks expect the Devils to be a good hockey team in 2024-25, with several top players in the mix for awards. Throughout this article, you’ll see what the odds are, but if there is one consistent, prevailing theme you should take away, it’s that they expect the Devils to be a playoff team. Any concerns over the issues plaguing the team one season ago should be in the rear view mirror.
This would be music to my ears as a fan as I expect the team to be good. I didn’t really need the confirmation of the sportsbooks to tell me that after all of the moves they made and given the context of what the team was supposed to be last year before everything went sideways, but its good to have that belief validated. But I do think its worth taking a look at the odds, seeing where the Devils are in each category, and what it tells us about what they think this team will be.
Keep in mind, the odds may vary depending upon your sportsbook of choice. Also, this is not a betting advice column. Make what you will of the odds listed and my analysis pertaining to what the odds are, but while I am known for having excellent opinions, I’m not a sports bettor.
All odds listed in this article are the “consensus odds” compiled by The Action Network, unless otherwise noted.
The Devils Are Among the Favorites to Win the Stanley Cup
Edmonton +800
Florida +1000
Dallas +1100
Colorado, NY Rangers, New Jersey +1300
Carolina +1400
Toronto +1500
Nashville +1600
Vegas, Boston +1800
Vancouver +2000
I want to preface this section by saying I agree with a lot of the teams here being among the top teams in the league, however, I don’t agree on the specific order. That said, this isn’t a prediction of the order as its simply the odds for each team to win the Stanley Cup.
I would consider the Florida Panthers to be the favorites, as they are the defending champions and are bringing back basically the entire team minus Brandon Montour and their fourth line. But I can certainly understand why Edmonton would be considered to be the favorites. They have Connor McDavid, they have Leon Draisaitl, and they came within a game of winning the Cup last year.
I think its probably a bit of a stretch to put the Devils on the same tier as the Rangers, who won the President’s Trophy last year. I think its a stretch to put them on the same tier as Dallas, who nearly won the President’s Trophy and is as loaded as anyone. And I think its a stretch to put them on the same tier as the Avalanche, who won the Cup a couple of seasons ago. I also need to see the Devils beat the Hurricanes in a big spot before I believe they can do it. But I don’t think they’re that far off either.
That said, I do think the “Big Three” in the Atlantic (Florida, Boston, Toronto) are better than the “Big Three” in the Metropolitan (NY Rangers, New Jersey, Carolina). I’m not writing off Vancouver even though the lingering injury to Thatcher Demko is a concern. I’m not writing off a Nashville team that made big moves this summer or a Vegas team that has a track record of making big moves and has more or less been dormant this summer while dealing with defections. But the fact the Devils are among the better teams in the league should tell you they will be a good team.
Are the Devils The Team to Beat in the Metropolitan Division?
New Jersey +240
NY Rangers +240
Carolina +270
Pittsburgh +1200
NY Islanders +1200
Washington +1800
Philadelphia +2000
Columbus +15000
I will say that it seems to me to be a bit of an overreaction for the Devils to be tied with the Rangers to win the Metropolitan, but its another strong endorsement of the moves and the strides the Devils have made this summer.
The Rangers won the President’s Trophy, made it to the Eastern Conference Final, and are bringing back basically the same team as last year, with Reilly Smith being their biggest addition and Barclay Goodrow being their most significant loss.
The Devils….came nowhere close to doing any of that last season, fired their coach, and spent the summer trying to fix their goaltending and blueline while also becoming tougher to play against, in part because they got badly exposed as inadequate against teams like the Rangers who play a heavier style.
I think the last two years have shown us that there is more variance with where the Devils might land than the Rangers. The Devils might have an higher upside when it’s all said and done and a longer window in front of them. But they are also younger, so they’re more inexperienced. And when one is inexperienced, a season like last season can get away from you as its happening.
Will the Devils Make the Playoffs? How Many Points Will the Devils Have?
Yes -410
No +290
Over 101.5 Points -115
Under 101.5 Points -110
This to me is the most telling line in regards to the Devils.
You can bet on the Devils to make the playoffs if you wish. But if you do, you’re going to have to pay a ton of juice to do it, to the point where its not really worth it due to the minimal profit. At least, I don’t think its worth betting $100 to make $24 and change.
The fact that the vig is what it is is the strongest indicator that the sportsbooks expect the Devils to be one of the eight teams to make the playoffs in the Eastern Conference. And if you’re like me, that’s all you’re really looking for as a fan. I don’t need this team to win the Metropolitan Division or a President’s Trophy but I do need to see them make the playoffs.
I didn’t need the sportsbooks telling me they expect the Devils to be a playoff team, but I do think its confirmation of what I expected with the moves they’ve made.
Can Jack Hughes Win the Hart Trophy?
Connor McDavid +150
Nathan MacKinnon +650
Auston Matthews +900
Jack Hughes +1200
Leon Draisaitl, Nikita Kucherov, Kirill Kaprizov, David Pastrnak +2000
Cale Makar +2500
Matthew Tkachuk +3500
Back in July, I talked about the possibility of Jack Hughes being a finalist for the Hart Trophy (although I expect him to just come up short). A lot of what I said then still applies.
Jack’s ability to hang around in the Hart race is tied to whether or not he can get through the regular season healthy…..something he has done three times out of five thus far in his career, but once in the last three years.
If Jack stays healthy, he’s going to put up a massive amount of points. He’ll break the Devils record for points in a season, and may break Brian Gionta’s record for goals in a season. He’s entering his age 23 season and has his prime in front of him. I think he’s capable of posting 120, 130, perhaps even 140 points in a regular season at some point. The sky is the limit. But until he proves he can stay healthy, there will always be that “if” attached to him, fairly or unfairly.
Can Nico Hischier Get Back into the Selke race?
Sasha Barkov +125
Auston Matthews +750
Nico Hischier +964
Roope Hintz +1293
Anze Kopitar +1500
Jordan Staal +1800
Sidney Crosby, Nick Suzuki , Mitch Marner, Elias Pettersson, Joel Eriksson Ek, Jason Robertson, Sam Reinhart +3000
Nico Hischier appeared to be the heir apparent to winning the Selke award once Patrice Bergeron retired from the league, finishing second to Bergeron in the 2022-23 season in the Selke voting. And then last season happened and Sasha Barkov won it going away in a landslide.
Hischier, like most Devils players, struggled defensively in 2023-24, so I think there’s reason to believe he’ll bounce back under a new coaching staff and a long summer to reset physically and mentally. Perhaps if Tomas Tatar is on his wing again, that will also help get his two-way game back to where it needs to be.
The Selke can be a bit of a reputation award though. Barkov, who was already one of the best two-way players in the league before he won it, took the baton from Bergeron and showed how elite he is on both ends of the ice in Florida’s championship run. He will be a tough player to knock off the pedestal now that he is the standard, but we do know how good Hischier can be defensively in a playoff series, as he shut down Rangers center Mika Zibanejad two seasons ago.
If the Devils are good, I expect Hischier’s strong two-way play to be a big part of the reason why. And if that’s the case, he’ll likely be a Selke finalist once again.
Can Jacob Markstrom contend for the Vezina?
Jeremy Swayman +600
Igor Shesterkin +600
Connor Hellebuyck +800
Thatcher Demko +800
Jake Oettinger, Juuse Saros, Ilya Sorokin, Andrei Vasilevskiy, Jacob Markstrom +1200
I find it amusing that a Devils team that hasn’t been able to get a save consistently since “Goals for Cory” was a thing enters the season with their newly acquired goaltender being tied for the 5th best odds to win the Vezina Trophy for League’s Best Goaltender, but here we are.
I do not expect Markstrom to win the Vezina, and for what its worth, neither do the oddsmakers. I am simply asking Markstrom to be good in net consistently, something that he has shown he can do as recently as last season before the Calgary Flames gutted the roster and traded half their blueline. If he can do that this season, that will be more than enough for me.
Can a Devils defenseman win the Norris?
Cale Makar +250
Quinn Hughes +774
Adam Fox, Evan Bouchard +800
Miro Heiskanen +847
Roman Josi +1200
Luke Hughes +6004
Dougie Hamilton +7500
Simon Nemec +30000
The Norris Trophy is awarded to the league’s best defenseman, and as expected, the favorites are a who’s who of recent Norris winners in Makar, Quinn Hughes, and Fox.
The Devils contingency is further down the list. Hamilton has never finished higher than 4th in the Norris voting, while the two Devils youngsters in Luke Hughes and Simon Nemec are entering their second seasons as NHL regulars.
I didn’t need the odds to tell me that its unlikely that the Devils have someone on their roster capable of winning the Norris Trophy the season. That said, the Norris historically goes to defensemen who post big point totals and can defend. There are exceptions of course…..I don’t think Erik Karlsson defended all that well when he won it two years ago, but show me another defenseman who posted 100+ points in a season in the cap era.
If I had to pick a Devils player to eventually win a Norris, I’d probably pick Luke Hughes since I believe he has the upside to post 80+ point seasons consistently and I think there is plenty of runway for him to get better defensively in his own end. But I wouldn’t pick anyone on this team to win a Norris in 2024-25.
Is Sheldon Keefe the Coach of the Year in waiting? (odds according to Fanduel)
Sheldon Keefe +700
Travis Green +800
Andrew Brunette +900
Kris Knoblauch +1100
Craig Berube +1400
Andre Tourigny, John Hynes, Spencer Carbery, Jon Cooper +1700
I always find Coach of the Year voting interesting because the only stats coaches effectively have is the win-loss record of the team in the standings. I can’t point to a JFresh chart or a Hockey-Reference or Natural Stat Trick page to argue why Jon Cooper is or isn’t having a better year than Peter Laviolette. In a lot of ways, it is a narrative award with the winner being the coach of the team with the best “story”.
So in that respect, I find it interesting that new Devils coach Sheldon Keefe is the favorite. Is he all of a sudden a better coach now than he was last year in Toronto when he got fired? For that matter, are most of the coaches on this list? Or is it a case of he just happens to be behind the bench if the Devils are as good as expected? I do think one can improve in their craft, but we’re talking about an award that is tied to the win-loss record of the team.
The Devils returning to the playoffs might be a better story (for us, anyways) than if Travis Green got the Ottawa Senators back to the playoffs. I’m not sure either is a better story than if Andre Tourigny can somehow get the Utah Hockey Club into the playoffs. And while I’m not picking it to happen, every story would pale in comparison to Dean Evason if he were somehow to lead the Columbus Blue Jackets back to the playoffs after the tragic death of Johnny Gaudreau.
Keefe being the favorite, to me, is yet another indicator from the books that they expect the Devils to be good this season. And I would expect that if the Devils are good, Keefe is a big part of the reason why.
What about some player props? (odds according to DraftKings)
Jack Hughes Over 40.5 goals -115 Under 40.5 goals -115
Jesper Bratt Over 28.5 goals -115 Under 28.5 goals -115
Nico Hischier Over 28.5 goals -115 Under 28.5 goals -115
Timo Meier Over 30.5 goals -115 Under 30.5 goals -115
Jack Hughes Over 98.5 points -115 Under 98.5 points -115
Jesper Bratt Over 77.5 points -115 Under 77.5 points -115
Nico Hischier Over 74.5 points -115 Under 74.5 points -115
Jacob Markstrom Regular Season Wins Over 31.5 -115 Under 31.5 -115
The player props are more or less in line with what the players have typically done over the last few regular seasons.
Jack Hughes scored 43 goals in his last full, healthy season. I consider Jack to be a facilitator first and foremost, but an argument could be made that Jack Hughes is indeed a sniper with some of the goals he scores. Either way, he’ll have plenty of shot volume where a 40 goal season is within the realm of possibilities. Hughes broke Patrik Elias’s season high for points in a season when he posted 99 two seasons ago, and he’ll likely become the first Devils player to register a 100 point season. Whether that is this year or for many seasons coming up remains to be seen.
Jesper Bratt has scored 26, 32, and 27 goals the last three seasons, with his shots and shot attempts increasing in each of the last three seasons. He topped his previous career high in points of 73 by ten last season, making 83 the new benchmark for him.
Nico Hischier’s production took a slight hit last season after he established a career high of 31 goals and 49 assists in 2022-23. He finished with 27 goals and 40 assists while appearing in ten fewer games.
Timo Meier scored 35 goals in his final full season in San Jose in 2021-22. He broke the 40-goal plateau for the first time in 2022-23 between San Jose and New Jersey. Last season, Meier took a step back with 28 goals, but keep in mind that Meier missed time and played through a double MCL injury and a shoulder injury when he did play.
Goaltender wins are a stat that I tend to take with a grain of salt, but Jacob Markstrom has averaged 25.5 wins over the last seven seasons he has played. The high water mark for him was the 2021-22 season when he won 37 games en route to finishing second in the Vezina trophy voting.
The “Yeah, But” with all of this and what, if anything, you should takeaway
If you’re asking “wait, weren’t the Devils betting favorites last year too?”, the answer is yes, they were.
“Well, how’d that work out for them?”
Not so good.
Of course the sportsbooks can be wrong about these sort of things. But just because they’re wrong doesn’t mean they’re in the business of being wrong. They’re not in the business of losing money, and as the saying goes, the casinos in Las Vegas didn’t just build themselves.
A lot of people were wrong thinking last year’s Devils team would be good coming off of the success they had in 2022-23. A lot of us were wrong. John was wrong. I was wrong. The books wound up being wrong despite thinking similar things about the Devils. But also, they’re not going to give the money back if a bunch of people lost their Devils futures bets because of injuries, poor coaching, and underperforming. Only one team can win a specific division, a conference, or a championship. Only one person can win each major award. Everyone else is a loser, as far as betting goes.
That doesn’t mean the Devils can’t be a good team though, and by all expectations, they should be a good team. I can only speak for myself but I prefer their roster 1-23 over Philadelphia, the NY Islanders, Washington, Columbus, and Pittsburgh. If I’m right with my assessment, they’re a playoff team. But they don’t play the games on paper, on spreadsheets, or in sportsbooks. They play it on the ice, so we’ll see what happens once the puck drops.
The lines and odds being what they are is by design. Sportsbooks try to balance their action to ensure a profit, and they have teams of people and all sorts of models, metrics, and numbers behind it to get the numbers where they need to be in order to do so. It’s very tough to get an edge on the book and most people simply can not.
The fact that the sportsbooks have the Devils as co-favorites in the Metropolitan Division and so many of their top players in the mix for awards and to hit their totals is fairly simple. They expect the team to not just be good, but one of the best teams in the league.
My takeaway is that if you’re looking for validation that the Devils should be good, the odds being what they are is a reflection of that and nothing more. If Vegas thought the Devils would be bad, they’d have much worse odds. The sportsbooks might be wrong but they generally aren’t in the business of losing money though. They’re not going to set themselves up to get taken to the cleaners like when Leicester City won the Premier League in 2015. Not if they can avoid it.