To get, one has to give. But what to the Devils have to give? This post dives into that.
Barring a massive second-half collapse, Devils general manager Tom Fitzgerald is going to be a buyer at the NHL trade deadline in two months.
In order to be a buyer though, one has to have things to sell that are attractive to the selling team.
Typically, when we’re talking about trading at the deadline, the most popular currency is draft capital. Teams that are selling are looking towards the future and will either use those picks to add more prospects to their system or flip those picks for more immediate help in the offseason. Teams that are buying typically don’t want to subtract from their NHL rosters, which is why then tend to offer up draft picks first and foremost. But draft capital is not necessarily the only currency available, as teams have their own player and prospect pools of which to trade from.
As of this writing, the Devils sit at $1,462,281 in current cap space and $3,760,150 in deadline cap space according to PuckPedia. While those numbers will fluctuate on a daily basis due to the daily roster management, that still isn’t exactly a ton of room with which to maneuver. With the Devils in the market for a bottom six center and a Top-Nine winger, there’s enough methods between salary retention, carrying fewer than 23 players on the active roster, and trade partners taking back contracts where the salary cap shouldn’t be the holdup in most potential trades.
What could be the holdup though is the Devils collection of assets from which to trade. The Devils don’t have their first round pick this year due to the Jacob Markstrom trade. This is fairly notable as if the Devils wind up competing directly with another team and that team offers their first, they’re probably going to beat the Devils out for that player. In addition, the Devils most likely won’t have their third round pick this year due to the Jake Allen trade. They’re going to have to hold back one of their second round picks just in case Allen makes it into 40 games to satisfy the conditions of that agreement. The Devils are also short a 5th and 7th round pick from the Colin Miller and Kaapo Kahkonen trades last season.
That said, the Devils do have assets they could trade in an effort to improve.
2025 Draft Picks
The Devils currently have three second round draft picks in the 2025 draft. Aside from their own second rounder, they have Edmonton’s pick via Utah from last year’s John Marino draft day trade. They also have Winnipeg’s 2nd round pick from the Tyler Toffoli trade at last year’s trade deadline.
In addition to that, the Devils have Vegas’s 3rd round pick from the Paul Cotter for Alexander Holtz & Akira Schmid trade. The Devils also control their 4th and 6th round picks, as well as San Jose’s 6th round pick from a draft day tradeback.
I think it’s pretty close to a lock that the Devils will wind up trading at least one of those second round picks, especially if they target a winger that can play anywhere in their Top Nine. And I don’t see why any of the picks from the third round on would be off limits for a fourth liner. Obviously, this is on a case-by-case basis and it depends upon the player, but the Devils have enough arsenal for 2025 where they can afford to move a pick or two and still have a halfway decent draft class. With the Devils in ‘win now’ mode and right in the thick of things, trading any remaining draft pick for 2025 is a no-brainer if the Devils think said move could potentially put them over the top come June.
2026 and/or 2027 First Round Pick
Of course, there’s the question as to “what if a big fish is available”.
Barring a massive collapse by their respective teams, I would guess that pending UFAs like Mitch Marner, Mikko Rantanen, or Brad Marchand won’t actually be available (nor am I going to pretend to do the cap gymnastics to fit any of them in). And while I don’t think someone like Marco Rossi is traded in-season, I guess there’s at least a possibility that there’s a non-zero possibility where he could be moved.
These are the types of players where the Devils putting their 2026 first round pick (and perhaps their 2027 first round pick) on the table would be applicable. Assuming they ever become available in the first place. Odds are, they won’t, so its not really worth discussing.
Of course, the problem with trading first round picks in perpetuity is that is a really good way of depleting a prospect pipeline. The Devils pipeline is already thinning out thanks to graduations to the NHL club and other trades involving top draft capital (Timo Meier and Jacob Markstrom being two recent examples). And frankly, I’d rather hold on to future first round picks through the deadline and see what might shake free over the summer rather than rush to spend it now.
The list of players expected to be available at the deadline isn’t that great where a first round pick should be on the table. And the same most likely goes for the prospects I’m about to name.
Simon Nemec
The former #2 overall pick in 2022, Simon Nemec is the Devils best prospect that is not currently in the NHL.
After playing nine games early in the season, Nemec became a victim of the numbers game at the NHL level and has since been reassigned to AHL Utica. Nemec has since been working on the defensive side of his game.
I would say its highly unlikely that the Devils give away Nemec in a deadline trade for anyone, especially a rental. Still only 20 years old and with another season to go on his ELC, Nemec has a ton of value and theoretical upside as a player.
However, I do think the idea of trading Nemec should at least be on the table. The Devils have a good thing going with their blueline at the moment, to the point where there’s a debate as to whether or not the Devils should consider extending pending UFA Johnathan Kovacevic. And while I’m not looking to give Nemec away, a cost-controlled RHD who is still on his ELC will have plenty of value.
I would file the possibility of a Nemec trade under “probably more of an offseason idea”, and the point is likely moot if the Devils ultimately let Kovacevic walk in free agency, as that would free up a spot for Nemec on the NHL club.
Seamus Casey
The path to the Devils is less clear for Seamus Casey, who like Nemec, is honing his craft at Utica after getting a taste of the NHL earlier this season.
Casey can skate, and his offensive game might be good enough to play at the NHL level right now, but he has work to do to being a more complete defenseman. Casey is also a bit undersized at 5’10” and 181 lbs., which is smaller than how Tom Fitzgerald (and most “200 Hockey Men” general manager types, for that matter) typically likes his defensemen.
Still, RHD who can move the puck don’t grow on trees, and Casey’s true value to the Devils might be what he ultimately fetches in a trade as there isn’t a clear path to him reaching the NHL. The Devils shouldn’t be looking to give Casey away, but if they could flip him for a center or winger with several years of control, that might ultimately be best for everyone involved. I just don’t think that will be at the deadline this year.
Other Prospects
The Devils could trade other prospects from their pool, particularly if there are any players who will lose their waiver exemption after this season. A list that includes Nico Daws and Brian Halonen.
The only problem with that is that I don’t think a lot of their prospects (outside of Casey/Nemec) have a whole lot of standalone value. Most teams have a Chase Stillman or Daniil Misyul or Nolan Foote type already in their organization. I don’t name those guys to pick on them but we’re talking about B and C-tier level prospects at best who aren’t going to move the needle a whole lot, even as a ‘throw in’ for a bigger trade.
Of course, the Devils have some better prospects than that between Anton Silayev, Lenni Hameenaho, Mikhail Yegorov, Jakub Malek, and Arseni Gritsyuk. But the Devils will certainly want to keep all or most of those guys for now, and trading some of them might be complicated anyways. Who is trading for Gritsyuk when its uncertain if/when he’ll ever come to North America, and how does that trade help the Devils now at the deadline? Answer is….it doesn’t. And why would the Devils want to trade Gritsyuk when he could potentially be a very valuable piece on an ELC in 2025-26 (or this year, I suppose, if he were to sign for a playoff run after his KHL season ends)? The answer is that the Devils probably shouldn’t.
We could see some minor prospect for prospect swaps like Graeme Clarke for Adam Beckman or Arnaud Durandeau for Nathan Legare. But its not going to be anything that really helps the Devils for a potential playoff push.
Players Off Of The Current NHL Roster
Teams that are looking to add at the deadline typically aren’t looking to subtract, but I do think there are a couple of instances where subtracting could make sense for cap purposes.
If the Devils add a winger, it would almost assuredly be to take Tomas Tatar’s spot in the lineup. I don’t think Tatar has a lot of value, even on an expiring contract worth $1.8M AAV. But Tatar is a player with a history of playoff shortcomings and keeping him around as the 13th forward might not make a ton of sense. It might make more sense to include him going the other way in a deal for a winger you actually want, freeing up that $1.8M to be used elsewhere.
I think similar arguments could be made to dump Nathan Bastian ($1.35M AAV through the end of this season) and/or Kurtis MacDermid ($1.15M AAV through the end of the 2026-27 season) as well, but Bastian has been a fixture in the lineup when he’s been healthy and MacDermid likely isn’t going anywhere either. Tatar has been a healthy scratch at points to get MacDermid in there, which should be noted as well. I think there’s a decent argument that could be made where any of those aforementioned players would clear waivers, which could give the Devils some short-term flexibility and maneuverability, but with us just about at the midway point of the season, I don’t have any reason to think the Devils would actually do that.
Some might suggest that Ondrej Palat, Dawson Mercer, and/or Erik Haula aren’t worth what they’re making and maybe the Devils should move on from them. But Palat and Haula have no trade protection and trading Mercer in season seems like a non-starter. I don’t think Fitzgerald is going to perform major surgery on the bottom of the roster when the team is playing as well as they are overall. The roster is what it is, and any moves at the deadline will be of the “tweaking around the edges” variety and supplementing what the Devils already have. I think there are worthwhile conversations to be had about moving on from Palat, Haula, or Mercer after the season and using their respective salaries elsewhere. I don’t think any of that is coming in the next few months.
Final Thoughts
I don’t know how the next two months will play out, but judging from some of the early trade boards that publications like The Athletic, Daily Faceoff, and TSN have put out, consider me underwhelmed in terms of star power expected to be available at the deadline.
The good news is that I don’t think the Devils need to swing for the fences like they did two years ago with the Timo Meier deal at the deadline. They don’t really need star power, which is good as the Top Six is more or less set anyways, as is the blueline. I think they need a middle six winger and a bottom six center and they should have enough to comfortably go into the postseason with what they got.
I think the market has been pretty well established when it comes to scoring wingers at the deadline. Rental scoring wingers typically do NOT return a 1st round pick. Jake Guentzel didn’t return one at the deadline last year. Neither did Tyler Toffoli. Neither did Max Domi or Patrick Kane in 2023. Yes, there are exceptions, but the market generally is what it is. And fourth-line types certainly usually come with a reasonable price tag as well, at least when Tampa isn’t doing Tampa things and trading five draft picks for Tanner Jeannot.
I would guess the Devils trade a 2nd this year and a 3rd next year for a middle six winger (aka, what they got for Toffoli one year ago), and a 4th for a 4th line center, as that is in line with what those types of players typically command at the deadline (think Vladislav Namestnikov a few years ago or Jack Roslovic last year). Which means I think any of their more significant trade chips like Nemec, Casey, and their future first round picks remain untouched. At least for now. There will come a time whether or not we need to have a conversation as to whether the Devils need to trade some of their depth for pieces that fit better, but I don’t think that time or place is right now.
Frankly, that is the right call. Trading Nemec for a rental is short-sighted and stupid. Trading Casey for a rental is short-sighted and stupid. Trading a future first round pick for guys like Taylor Hall, Yanni Gourde, or Brandon Saad in 2025 doesn’t make a ton of sense. It might make more sense for someone like Brock Nelson who can play center, but he is also having a down year by his standards. But that’s a different aisle of the Wal-Mart that the Devils are likely going to be shopping in. The Devils are more likely to be in on the Nick Bjugstads and Jake Evans of the world, to which I’d say, give up whatever non-premium draft picks you need to do make it happen if you think that’s the move to make. After Tom Fitzgerald nailed the offseason, he’s earned the benefit of the doubt in my book that he also knows exactly what they need come deadline time..
That’s how I see things. Perhaps you see things differently. Please feel free to leave a comment below and thanks for reading.