Luke Hughes and Simon Nemec are both the present and future of the blueline for the New Jersey Devils. Last season, as rookies, they were somewhat sheltered as they got adjusted to the pro game. What will happen this season?
Last season, as the rookie seasons for both Luke Hughes and Simon Nemec, there was an interesting dynamic at play. As rookies in the NHL, you want to shelter these players with more offensive zone starts and give them easier competition to play against in order for them to find success at the NHL level and continue to grow. However, the two youngsters also ended up being two of the best defenders on the team after Dougie Hamilton left with an injury, so they both kind of had to fill bigger shoes than perhaps the organization would have ideally wanted them to fill.
This offseason, Tom Fitzgerald did what he could to prevent having to rely on these two too much once again by bringing in both Brett Pesce and Brendan Dillon to eat up defensive minutes and play strong hockey in the defensive zone. And they will both undoubtedly get a ton of defensive zone faceoffs. Last season, Dillon was already meeting this need in Winnipeg where he had only a 41.67% offensive zone faceoff percentage, lowest among defenders on Winnipeg with at least 500 5v5 minutes. Pesce did not have the same in Carolina, but granted, Carolina is such a strong possession team and has been for years and years at this point, that no defender over 500 minutes at 5 on 5 last year in Carolina had an offensive zone faceoff percentage under 52%, and only one defender had that number under 54%. So while Pesce might have had an inflated 55.29% offensive zone faceoff percentage last year, you can expect that to come down this year in New Jersey unless the Devils can all of a sudden match the Canes’ efficiency when it comes to possession. I would love to see it, but it’s unlikely.
What that all means for Hughes and Nemec is that they still might get to be somewhat sheltered in terms of zone starts this season. I would especially think of this for Hughes, who is very offensively minded. Last season, Hughes had a very high 59.12% offensive zone faceoff percentage. The coaching staff wants him out there in the offensive zone to help with the offense, as everyone knows he is capable of doing. He might get more defensive responsibilities as he adapts more to the pro game, but a large part of his value is predicated on his offense, so he should still be fairly sheltered for that purpose.
On the other hand, Nemec is more of an interesting case. Last season, he only had a 51.89% offensive zone faceoff percentage as it was, even as a rookie. He was given plenty of defensive responsibility at such a young age without being overly sheltered, and he did good work in that realm. His game is different from Luke’s too, it is much more of a two-way game. He has offensive prowess, but not on the scale of Luke Hughes. On the other hand, he is also more defensively responsible and is expected to be better in his own end. So having him out there at around 50% for offensive zone faceoffs makes a ton of sense. I expect the number to probably fall a little this season closer to 50%, maybe into the 49% range, especially if the New Jersey Devils don’t have high-flying possession numbers, but he will probably be given plenty of both offensive and defensive zone starts as it fits his game as a two-way player. As he ages and grows at this level, he will have more defensive responsibilities, but this year with Pesce and Dillon on the team now, he doesn’t need to be thrown into the deep end for defensive zone starts and responsibilities.
It will be interesting to see how these two guys are developed this year. They are major pieces for this Devils team both now and in the future, they are part of the core for this team. Two defenders who have chances to be perennial all-stars. How they are developed and worked this season is a big deal. Will they be given less-sheltered starts, will that only happen for Nemec, or will both be more sheltered still given the other players on this blue line? We will find out soon enough.