Since the beginning of the 2024-25 season it was assumed the Vancouver Canucks would make the playoffs. Then the year started, and they had a rude awakening happened. And now they’re wrestling with the Calgary Flames, St. Louis Blues, and the Utah Hockey Club for that last wild card spot.
Canucks Likely to Make Playoffs, Not Certain
Sunday’s game against Utah meant a lot, make no mistake. They had the opportunity to build on a high-scoring win the night before, but instead let the UHC take and keep the lead. The Canucks play a low-event game, and it bit them on Sunday.
Every point counts, no matter when in the season they come. Two points in October are the same value as two points in April. But they always feel more important later in the year when the race enters its final stretch.
Calgary and Vancouver are playing hit-to-pass while the Blues charge back into the race, and Utah tries to get their young players into the playoffs. The mirror image of St. Louis is Minnesota falling fast, dropping seven of their last ten. It’s crowded on the edge, and the more teams there are shoving for position, the easier it is to fall.
The Canucks have enough advantages to make the playoffs, but they still need to put in the work. Let’s take a closer look at what they have going for them.
What’s Coming
First, the schedule they have left matters. Saturday’s win against the Chicago Blackhawks gave Vancouver 73 points and a two-point gap over the Flames. That’s as comfortable as it’s been for the past month and gives the team a target. Another ten wins in their next 16 games is possible and probably necessary.
The Utah result shortened the Canucks’ lead, even if they didn’t eliminate it. They’re are down to 15 games, and here they come.
The Toughs
Winnipeg Jets x2; Vegas Golden Knights x2; Dallas Stars; Colorado Avalanche
That’s six games against teams ten points or more ahead of Vancouver as of St. Patrick’s Day morn. None of these are easy, but two are probably needed for Vancouver’s win column. Vancouver has won both meetings against the Avalanche but is 0-5 against the others.
Mid-range Challenge
St. Louis Blues; New York Rangers; New Jersey Devils; Columbus Blue Jackets; Minnesota Wild
The Devils are a surprise here, but missing three major pieces leaves the young team vulnerable. Minnesota likewise missing their best scorer and one of their top six centres puts them in a hard place. They should still make the playoffs, but the Canucks can get a win from them.
Most of these teams are in a single six-game, eleven-day road trip kicking off on Thursday. Thatcher Demko is practicing with the club again, so hopefully, Vancouver’s nominal starter will be back.
You’d Better Win
New York Islanders; Seattle Kraken; Anaheim Ducks; San Jose Sharks
Four games considered “easy-ish wins” aren’t a lot. Vancouver’s already lost to three of these teams, so they know there are no guarantees.
Why the Canucks Will Make the Playoffs
By anyone’s count, that’s four of the needed ten wins. Add a massive road trip, and how on earth can this be a reason for optimism? According to Tankathon, every team wrestling with Vancouver has easier scheduled opponents except Seattle. The Blues have the best time of it, and they’re just two points back!
Mostly, our belief is based on one simple truth, Vancouver have been slumping.
Odd as it seems, that the Canucks have been so bad, this season gives some hope. The chaos and disorder of the 2024-25 season would have tanked any team that had less talent available to it. They traded away arguably their best forward halfway through the season, for crying out loud. And nobody’s stepped up to replace him.
As everyone knows, the poor results this year hurt all the more because of last season’s success. But we need to remember that last season’s success was because a double handful of players hit career highs. Even their post-January slowdown (17-12-4) wasn’t enough to knock them off the top spot in the Pacific Division.
This season, we’re getting the flip side. Players the team relies on have either started slowly, Elias Pettersson leaps to mind, or have been injured. It’s great that Quinn Hughes is still doing his thing, but he probably should have missed a few more games than he has. Filip Hronek has been solid in Hughes’ absence, but he’s also missed 20 games.
Pettersson’s drama-filled year, Brock Boeser‘s slip defensively to go with his streaky scoring, very disappointing follow-up seasons from Nils Höglander, and Dakota Joshua‘s health scare have all contributed to where the Canucks sit now. Add Demko’s uncertainty and Artūrs Šilovs’ weak follow-up year, and even their normally reliable goaltending has failed them.
It Gets Better
This has been a very mediocre season. That being said, Vancouver has yet to have a serious streak of any kind. They’ve won four in a row once and three straight three times. They’ve lost four in a row once and lost three in a row twice. But in each of those losing streaks, they managed to get two points.
Should the Canucks make the playoffs, it will be because they have managed to gain from losses. The pieces they’ve scraped together have them in a wild-card spot despite the gaps in the lineup and indifferent play. Those eleven points, despite their “loser point” nickname, matter.
They’re a breath away from being top five on the penalty kill and are average on the power play. One of those relies on scorers feeling good, the other on listening to the coach. And the scorers are starting to feel their game returning, led by Pettersson with five points, and a shootout goal, in three games. Höglander’s feeling his snap lately. Jake DeBrusk is four goals away from his career high.
On defence, Hughes and Hronek are both back and healthy, and Marcus Pettersson has solidified the second pair. Victor Mancini and Elias “Junior” Pettersson are showing they can be trusted in the NHL. In goal, Demko is practicing again with the team, presaging his return.
Vancouver is on the way to establishing itself in that last playoff spot. They have flaws, but that’s no reason to ignore their talent. There’s only room for one team on that ledge, and the team that was there last year is a good bet.
Main Photo: Bob Frid – Imagn Images
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