Welcome back to another NHL Predictions. Each day our writers here at Last Word on Hockey look at the games and give in-depth analysis. Our team breaks down the key matchups, storylines, and stats, then makes predictions based on how they might play out. For this edition, we will look at the New York Islanders taking on the Washington Capitals. Don’t forget to check out more NHL Predictions. Our writers continue this series throughout the 2024-25 season and on into the Stanley Cup playoffs.
NHL Predictions
New York Islanders vs Washington Capitals
Head-to-Head: Islanders 1-1 Capitals
Time: 7:30 p.m. Eastern Daylight Time (EDT)
TV: MSGSN, MNMT
This matchup on NHL Predictions features two Metropolitan Division opponents squaring off tonight. As the season is coming to an end, these teams have had opposite results this season. One team already eliminated from playoff contention, while the other rides into the postseason with home ice secured. The Islanders in fifth place of this division through 80 games, their postseason hopes are over. With a record of 35-33-12 and 82 points this is just not good enough to qualify for the dance. Their last chance at influencing the playoffs could come on the final game of the season against the Columbus Blue Jackets. The Capitals, on the other hand have been chilling in first place in the Metro for awhile. Through 80 games, their record is 50-21-9, good for 109 points on the season. This is the third and final matchup of the season for these two teams. They have split the two meetings so far, with the last game being a history making one on Long Island. Tonight’s game takes place in the same place, inside UBS Arena on Long Island.
The Islanders Story
For the Islanders in this edition of NHL Predictions, they snapped a three game losing streak in their last game. That came with a 1-0 shutout win against the New Jersey Devils. However, after their 4-3 shootout loss to the Philadelphia Flyers on Saturday, they were eliminated from playoff contention for this season. Despite a decent run after the trade deadline, this was almost a foregone conclusion after the team traded Brock Nelson at the deadline. An inconsistent offence has plagued this team all season and shipping off Nelson didn’t help matters. They rank 25th in goals with 2.75 per game. Bo Horvat continues to be one of the only players to watch on this team, as he has 57 points in 79 games. Coming into this game, he has scored in back-to back-games and sits just two goals shy of 30 on the season. He has hit that mark on three-straight seasons.
Defensively this is a middle of the pack team. They sit ranked 19th in goals against with 3.10 per game. Recently they have had some ugly performances the past week, giving up seven goals against the Nashville Predators and nine to the New York Rangers. However, it is important to note that Ilya Sorokin was hurt during the Predators game and missed the Rangers game as well. When Sorokin was able to return he shut out the Devils in his first game back. Proving that this team goes as their franchise goalie goes. The shutout was Sorokin’s fourth and he reached the 30 win mark for the second time in the last three years. For the season he is 30-23-6 with a .906 save percentage and a 2.72 goals-against average.
The Capitals Story
For the Capitals they come into this game on a two game losing streak. They dropped back-to-back games on Saturday and Sunday to the Columbus Blue Jackets. However, with their playoff spot locked up, and home ice secured, these last few games don’t really mean much to them. Washington still has one of the most prolific offensive units in the league, ranking second in goals per game with 3.51 per game. Alex Ovechkin is up to 43 goals on the season and broke the all-time goal record the last time these teams met just a week ago. He has reached the 40-goal mark six times in the last eight seasons. To go along with him they have Dylan Strome who leads the team in points with 78 in 80 games. He has three goals and seven assists in the last eight games.
Defensively for the Capitals they also rank among the NHL elite. To go along with their second ranked offence, their defence ranks ninth with 2.79 goals-against per game. This is aided by the fifth ranked penalty kill in the league at 82%. However in seven of their last 10 games they have allowed four or more goals. This comes down to inconsistent goaltending, starter Logan Thompson has been out since April second. Backup Charlie Lindgren has struggled in his absence. He is 3-2-0 with a .861 save percentage and a 3.48 goals against over his last six appearances. Hunter Shepard who was called up from the AHL allowed seven goals in his lone start.
NHL Predictions
On paper the Capitals have the much better roster. The standings speak for themselves both teams are in opposite positions. The Capitals have every advantage, except for the goalies where the Islanders have the better one. With the playoffs on the horizon, the Capitals have hit a little bit of a tough spell not playing their best hockey. Look for this game against the Islanders who have nothing to play for to be a bounce back spot for them as they look to gear up for their playoff run.
Prediction: 4-3 Capitals win
Prop Bets
Popular sport books have this game as a toss up with both money lines at -110. We would take the Capitals as they need to get back on track before the playoffs start. The over/under is set at 5.5. With the struggles the Capitals have had in net and their dangerous offence we like the over in this contest. As far as anytime goal scorers, for the Islanders take Bo Horvat at +180. He has scored in back to back games and is hunting a 30 goal season. For the Capitals take Dylan Strome at +230. He is having a career year and has had a hot stick recently look for this to continue in this game.
Main Photo: Geoff Burke-Imagn Images
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