Welcome back to another edition of NHL Predictions. Each day our writers here at Last Word on Hockey look at the games and give in-depth analysis. Our team breakdown the key matchups, storylines, and stats, then make predictions based on how they might play out. For this edition, we will look at the New York Islanders taking on the Philadelphia Flyers. Don’t forget to check out all the action on NHL Predictions, as our writers continue this series throughout the 2024-25 season.
NHL Predictions
New York Islanders vs Philadelphia Flyers
Time: 7:30 p.m. Eastern Standard Time (EST)
The Islanders Story
The Islanders come into this game after having their three-game winning streak snapped in the last one. A 2-0 shutout loss to the Ottawa Senators. The offence had a tough go against a good defensive team, only registering 24 shots on goal. Jean-Gabriel Pageau had to miss this game because of an illness. This cleared the way for Marc Gatcomb to make his NHL debut, he played just 7:27 of ice time. Gatcomb was sent back down so Pageau hopes to get back in the lineup for this one. The powerplay went 0-for-1 in this game dropping them to 0-for-25 over the past 14 games, that won’t help them move from last in the league in that area. Being shutout also dropped them to 29th in goals with 2.60 per game.
Defensively it was another good game for the Islanders. They held Ottawa to one goal before the empty netter made it two. Ottawa also only had 26 shots on goal so the defence was let down by the offence. They did it shorthanded too as Alexander Romanov missed this game with an upper-body injury. This effort was also again without starting goalie Ilya Sorokin who was the backup while still fully recovering from his illness. Marcus Högberg got the start again against his former team. He did everything he could to help the team get the win stopping 25 of the 26 shots he faced. He has played well in his limited appearances holding a 1-2 record with a .953 save percentage and 1.41 goals against. However, once Sorokin is 100% it will be his net again and he will start pretty much every game.
The Flyers Story
The Flyers come into this one having also just lost a winning streak. Their two-game winning streak was snapped in a 3-2 loss to the Columbus Blue Jackets. Offensively the Flyers are a middle of the pack team, ranking 15th in goals with 3.00 per game. Travis Konecny has led the way for them with 50 points in 45 games. He is well on his way to shattering his career high of 68 points. That point lead drops from 50 to 31 for second which is held by rookie Matvei Michkov. In recent games Morgan Forst has been hot as he rides a four-game point streak into this game.
Defensively is where thing get dicey for Philly. This season they are ranked near bottom of the league in goals against, in 29th with 3.42 per game. However, goaltending might be to blame as they have allowed 929 shots on goal, the 12th fewest. Of those shots only 75 were high danger, the fourth fewest. Making their expected goals against per 60 just 2.26, eighth best in the league and a drastic difference from what the actual goals against is. All three goalies they have used this season have been bad. Starter Samuel Ersson is 11-7-2 with a .887 save percentage and 2.87 goals against. Backups Aleksei Kolosov and Ivan Fedotov have been even worse. Kolosov is 4-8-1 with a .870 save percentage and 3.45 goals against. Fedotov is 4-5-3 with .879 goals against and 3.26 goals against. It is unclear which of these three will start against the Islanders.
Prediction
Both teams coming into this game off loses and being close in the standings will make this a intense game. Factor in the fact they are division rivals and that just adds to it. Philly has the advantage offensively and on special teams. The Islanders edge comes from defence, goaltending and playing on home ice. These advantages should be enough for the Islanders to get back in the win column tonight.
Prediction: Islanders win 3-2
Prop Bets
We wrap up NHL predictions with some prop bets. Top betting sites have the Islanders as the favourites on the money line at -140, we like those odds. The over/under is at 5.5. Neither one of these teams light it up offensively and the Islanders have been playing well defensively lately. We like the under at +104. As far as any time goal scorers, for the Islanders take Kyle Palmieri. He hasn’t scored in eight games so he should be due to pot one. For the Flyers Travis Konecny is always a safe bet. He is the team’s leading scorer by a wide margin, and it’s been four games since his last one, so he is also due.
Main photo by: Eric Hartline-Imagn Images
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The post NHL Predictions January 16th New York Islanders vs Philadelphia Flyers appeared first on Last Word On Hockey.