Welcome back to another NHL Predictions. Each day our writers here at Last Word on Hockey look at the games and give in-depth analysis. Our team breaks down the key matchups, storylines, and stats, then makes predictions based on how they might play out. For this edition, we will look at the New York Islanders taking on the Montreal Canadiens. Don’t forget to check out more NHL Predictions, as our writers continue this series throughout the 2024-25 season.
NHL Predictions
New York Islanders vs Montreal Canadiens
Time: 7:30 p.m. Eastern Daylight Time (EDT)
TV Schedule: TSN2, RDS, ESPN+
This matchup features two Eastern Conference opponents in the heat of the Wild Card race as the season come down the stretch. The Islanders are fifth in the Metropolitan Division through 67 games played. Their record stands at 31-28-3 good for 70 points just three back of the last wild card spot. The Canadiens are the ones holding down that spot currently with 73 points. They sit fifth in the Atlantic Division with a 33-27-7 record after 67 games played. This is the third and final matchup between these two this season. So far, they have split the first two games. The Canadiens taking the most recent one 2-1 in a shootout north of the border inside the Bell Centre. This final meeting will take place on Long Island inside UBS Arena.
The Islanders Story
For the Islanders they come into this game after snapping their three-game losing streak. They did so by starting up a little two-game winning streak. The two wins came in the same fashion, going to the third down 2-0 and coming back to win 4-2 both times. Those were against one of the league’s best in the Florida Panthers. The most recent was against the hated rival Pittsburgh Penguins. These comebacks were led by the unsuspecting players in the lineup. Pierre Engvall nabbing points in both games, including the game winner against the Penguins. Simon Holmstrom scored goals in both games as well. Even the blueline chipped into these games too, Noah Dobson producing three points including two goals in the last two games. For the 26th ranked offence in the league at just 2.70 goals per game, they’ll take offence from wherever they can get it.
Defensively is where things get a little better for this group. In each of the last three games they haven’t allowed more than two goals. For the season they are middle of the pack, sitting 16th in goals-against per game at 2.94. 16th is also where they sit in terms of allowing high danger shots with 138 against on the year. What’s impressive is they’ve stayed in the middle while having the 31st ranked penalty kill in the league at 71.2%. However, goaltender Ilya Sorokin deserves the bulk of that credit, this team goes as he goes. In his last nine outings he has been lights out recording a 6-2-1 record with a .923 SV% and only 21 goals allowed. The season long numbers are solid as well. He holds a 26-20-5 record with a .906 SV% and a 2.72 GAA.
The Canadiens Story
Montreal comes into this game playing well and on a two-game winning streak of their own. Over their last 10 games they are 7-1-2 and have played themselves into a playoff spot. Their 14th ranked offence at 3.00 goals per game has been heating up recently. In seven of those last 10 games, they have scored four goals or more. Montreal is led by Nick Suzuki and his team leading 70 points in 67 games. He has three goals and seven assists just in the month of March. His linemates and he have carried the load offensively for this group. Flanked by Cole Caufield who has 33 goals on the season and has recorded at least one point in eight of his last 10 games. On the other flank 20-year-old Juraj Slafkovsky has been locked in as well. Since the 4 Nations break, he has six goals and five assists in his last 11 games. They are a dangerous trio and have been on fire as of late.
Defensively the Canadiens are not as strong. Despite having the eighth-ranked penalty kill at 81.7%, they still rank 25th in goals against on the season with 3.24 per game. A big reason for that is they allow a lot of quality chances. They have given up the second most high-danger chances with 176 against. However, their goaltender Sam Montembeault has covered up that weakness. He has been unreal since play resumed from the 4 Nations tournament. Over his last eight starts, he hasn’t taken a regulation loss. He boasts a 7-0-1 record with a .922 SV% and a 2.09 GAA. This surge has given him his first 25-win campaign and has pushed the Habs into a playoff position.
NHL Predictions
Both teams have been playing well coming into this matchup. The two sides also seem to be pretty evenly matched on paper. Montreal holding advantages offensively and on special teams. While the Islanders have defensive and goaltending advantages. With a massive two points on the line, the home ice could be the advantage that tips the scales. That is held by the Islanders, so we think they come away with the win in this one.
Prediction: Islanders win 4-3
Prop Bets
Popular sports books have the Islanders as the favourites at -128. We like that line in this game. The over/under is set at 5.5. The Islanders have scored four goals in back-to-back games. The Canadiens have one of the strongest top lines in the league and they have been clicking. For these reasons we like the over at -110. As far as anytime goal scorers for the Islanders take Kyle Palmieri at +190. Coming off a three-point game look for him to keep it rolling in this one. For the Canadiens, take Nick Suzuki at +220. He is having a career year and solidifying himself as one of the top centres in the league. Coming off a goal in his last game a well, look for him to light the lamp again in this game.
Main Photo Credit: Wendell Cruz-USA TODAY Sports
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The post NHL Predictions March 20th New York Islanders versus Montreal Canadiens appeared first on Last Word On Hockey.