The Carolina Hurricanes are rumoured to have been poking around in search of a new goalie this season. In fact, this seems like a task that has come and gone over the last few years. As of right now, they have Pyotr Kochetkov, Frederik Andersen (injured), Spencer Martin and Dustin Tokarski. With Kochetkov as the current number one, Martin and Tokarski have stepped in as a sort of rotating backup with Tokarski most recently winning against the New Jersey Devils.
But with uncertainty around Andersen’s health and the simple fact that Martin and Tokarski are more further depth options, the goalie situation for the Hurricanes is interesting. One specific noteworthy aspect is that Carolina may have to be rather selective in finding the right goalie. Easier said than done due to availability and other factors, but let’s take a look.
The Carolina Hurricanes Current Goalie Situation
At the time of writing this article, for the Hurricanes, Kochetkov is the number one guy while Andersen is out and has the largest number of starts (24). Next is Martin (9), then Andersen (4), and then Tokarski (3). Given that Martin and Tokarski are really depth options, let’s look at Kochetkov’s and Andersen’s stats.
Kochetkov has a SV% of .902 and a GAA of 2.46. He’s faced 592 shots against and saved 534. That averages almost 25 shots against per game. Looking at MoneyPuck, he carries a 6.3 goals saved above expected, .267 goals saved above expected per 60 minutes, and a .006% SV% above expected on unblocked shots against. Interestingly, Kochetkov’s low danger and medium danger unblocked shot attempt save percentages above expected are both negative while his high danger unblocked shot attempt save percentage above expected is positive (.138%).
All of the other goalies for Carolina have had very small sample sizes but given his place in the lineup when healthy, let’s look at Andersen’s brief numbers. In his four games, he has a .941 SV% and 1.48 GAA. He’s faced 101 shots and saved 95, averaging close to 25 shots against per game. He also has a 7.1 goals saved above expected, 1.757 goals saved above expected per 60 minutes, and a .039% SV% above expected on unblocked shots against. All of his various danger level shot attempt save percentages above expected are positive. Again, a small sample size but he was playing pretty well.
What the Hurricanes Need in Net
So, with a lot of chatter about the Hurricanes needing goaltending, there is an interesting hypothesis to consider. The best goalie for Carolina is the one who can make the most randomized saves while also facing little or very sporadic action. In a perfect world, you have someone who can do it all, but the Hurricanes system seems to lend itself to needing a goalie who exhibits those qualities.
The Hurricanes are second in the league in shots on goal against at 5v5 with 736 but also are top ten in allowing high-danger shots against (88). Meanwhile, they rank the best at allowing low-danger shots against by a pretty decent margin. Their 72.97 expected goals against is right outside of top ten in the league while their 4.03 goals against above expected is in the bottom ten.
What this seems to hint at when compared to watching the team play is that the goaltender has to be ready for pretty decent chances against and in a sporadic nature. This isn’t usually the 40+ shots against game where the goaltender is making save after save. With an analytics expert as general manager in Eric Tulsky, it’s almost certain that he and his team are looking at these stats in even more detail.
What’s Out There
If this hypothesis holds true, and Carolina has to find the right goaltender to fit this mould, who is even out there? And who is out there that also is available?
Metrics Above Expected
To do this analysis, let’s start with who is at the top of the league in goals saved above expected and SV% above expected with a minimum of ten games played. While maybe not perfect to test this hypothesis, this will help tell us who is generally stopping the puck more than expected. Normal metrics like SV% and GAA don’t dig deep enough even though they are a piece to the puzzle.
Unsurprisingly, Connor Hellebuyck leads the way in both categories. He’s not available. The next four in goals saved above expected are Lukáš Dostál, Filip Gustavsson, Logan Thompson, and Karel Vejmelka. The next four in SV% above expected are Thompson, John Gibson, Dostal and then Gustavsson. The only names that have been mentioned to possibly be available this year are Vejmelka (12 goals saved above expected and .009% SV% above expected) and Gibson (9.2 goals saved above expected and .012% SV% above expected).
Quality of Saves
To take the next step, let’s look a little further at these two names. Vejmelka has faced 634 shots and made 580 saves in 23 games. This averages to slightly under 28 shots per game. Gibson has faced 382 shots and made 347 saves in 13 games. This averages to around 29 shots per game. As for the quality of saves made above expected, Vejmelka has a -.003% high danger save percentage above expected, .040% for medium and .006% for low. For Gibson, those respective numbers are .069%, -.003% and .014%. It’s also worth noting that as a team the Anaheim Ducks have the best goals against above expected in the league, which makes sense with two goalies ranking near the top in this metric.
Is the Answer Near or Far?
In hockey, nothing is for certain and numbers don’t guarantee results. But numbers help tell a story. Looking at the brief analysis here, it seems that Vejmelka or Gibson could possibly fit the bill for what Carolina needs. Both have done well in goals saved above expected and SV% above expected. Gibson has the edge in high-danger and low-danger shots against, but Vejmelka has the edge in goals saved above expected. Vejmelka does have the higher SV% but both are above .900. Both of these goalies are on average facing more shots than Kochetkov too.
Based on the chances Carolina is generally surrendering compared to the league, Kochetkov should be great with his effectiveness against high-danger chances. But the team giving up more of these chances may actually inflate this metric. And then his negative low and medium danger numbers could be why the team’s mental mistakes are leading to goals against. It seems to indicate that he may not be making all of the saves he should be this season. Both for what he has shown this season and in prior ones, Andersen could actually be a decent option. For example, in 2021-22 his goals saved above expected was over 27. But now he is older and with his injury history there’s no certainty as to what a full workload would produce. This has put Carolina at a crossroads.
If the Price Is Right
At the end of the day, there are so many factors involved in assessing the right goaltender for Carolina. But looking at the above information, grabbing a netminder that can perform well under Carolina’s system and closing the door when a team mistake leads to chances, whether high or low danger, could take the team to another level. The team can attack with less pressure knowing the goalie can close any potential holes.
Vejmelka may be available, but Gibson seems to be the one most up for grabs. Kochetkov is the goalie of the near future but a move for a goalie like Gibson to run in tandem with him could pay dividends for the Hurricanes goalie situation. Gibson also is a veteran at 31 with many years of experience behind a struggling Ducks team of late. But the price has to be right and deciding on where Andersen may fit (traded, stick around, etc.) makes it a little tricky. It’s going to be interesting to see what the Hurricanes do.
Main Photo Credit: Ed Mulholland-Imagn Images
The post The Goalie the Carolina Hurricanes Need appeared first on Last Word On Hockey.